Tag Archives: Congressional Budget Office

CBO’s Alternate Facts About Obamacare

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Millions may lose cov­er­age next year if Con­gress does not repeal Oba­macare.

That’s not what this week’s Con­gres­sion­al Bud­get Office (CBO) analy­sis says, but it is real­i­ty. CBO’s esti­mat­ing mod­els seem imper­vi­ous to reality.

In the real world, the Oba­macare exchanges are in cri­sis, mil­lions of unin­sured peo­ple will­ing­ly pay or avoid IRS penal­ties, and con­sumers strug­gle with ris­ing pre­mi­ums and cost-shar­ing require­ments.  Read more on Nation­al Review Online.

How Cutting Jobless Benefits Cut Joblessness

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During his December 2013 Hawaiian vacation, President Obama phoned lawmakers, asking them to extend unemployment benefits. They did not. Which is a good thing, according to a new study published by NBER. [Credit: Fox News]

Dur­ing his Decem­ber 2013 Hawai­ian vaca­tion, Pres­i­dent Oba­ma phoned law­mak­ers, ask­ing them to extend unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits. They did not. Which is a good thing, accord­ing to a new study pub­lished by NBER. [Cred­it: Fox News]

A lit­tle more than a year ago, the Pres­i­dent was dis­tressed.  It was a few days after Christ­mas 2013, and extend­ed unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits for 1.3 mil­lion peo­ple were about to expire.  In a typ­i­cal­ly per­func­to­ry lob­by­ing effort, he called two Sen­a­tors to urge them to move a bill to pre­serve the benefits.

To recov­er from his exer­tions, he and his fam­i­ly then “ven­tured to the white-sand beach at Bel­lows Air Force Sta­tion, which is on the wind­ward side of the island of Oahu and fea­tures turquoise water and a stun­ning view of the Moku­lua Islands,” the Wash­ing­ton Post reported.

That tran­quil scene augured the best year for U.S. employ­ment growth since 1999.   Accord­ing to the Labor Depart­ment, the econ­o­my added more than 3.1 mil­lion jobs in 2014.  The topline unem­ploy­ment rate was 5.6% in Decem­ber, down from 6.7% the pri­or Decem­ber and the low­est rate since June 2008.

And here is the sur­pris­ing major rea­son for the resur­gence in employ­ment: Con­gress spurned the President’s entreaties and let extend­ed unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits expire. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Good News Coming On The Deficit. Well, Sort Of.

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Syriza party leader Alexis Tsipras hopes to prevail in today's Greek elections, which could mark a turning point in his nation's struggle against a crushing load of debt. Meanwhile, U.S. government deficits are improving. Sort of.

Syriza par­ty leader Alex­is Tsipras hopes to pre­vail in today’s Greek elec­tions, which could pro­voke a show­down between Euro­pean lead­ers and Greece, which strug­gles under a crush­ing load of debt. Mean­while, U.S. gov­ern­ment deficits are improv­ing. Sort of. [Cred­it: BBC]

On Tues­day morn­ing, the Con­gres­sion­al Bud­get Office will announce that the fed­er­al deficit con­tin­ued to decline last year.

The announce­ment will trig­ger an orgy of self-con­grat­u­la­tion in Wash­ing­ton.  The Admin­is­tra­tion will claim that its poli­cies have been vin­di­cat­ed.  Repub­li­cans also will take a bow, tout­ing spend­ing con­straints they’ve imposed since win­ning the House majority.

But you’ll hear noth­ing from the Wash­ing­to­ni­ans who most deserve cred­it for reduced deficits: the Fed­er­al Reserve Board of Gov­er­nors.  By hold­ing inter­est rates near zero and lend­ing tril­lions in free mon­ey to the Trea­sury, the Fed has allowed the gov­ern­ment to reduce deficits even as it gorged on debt. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Inequality: Has The Income Gap Narrowed?

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Two icons of the Left -- economist Thomas Piketty and Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) -- talking about rising inequality last June. But by some measures, inequality is shrinking. [Credit: National Review]

Two icons of the Left — econ­o­mist Thomas Piket­ty and Sen­a­tor Eliz­a­beth War­ren (D‑MA) — dis­cussing ris­ing inequal­i­ty dur­ing an event last June. But by some mea­sures, inequal­i­ty is shrink­ing, not ris­ing. [Cred­it: Nation­al Review]

“The game right now in Amer­i­ca is rigged. It is rigged so that those at the top keep doing bet­ter and bet­ter, and every­one else is under increas­ing pres­sure, is under increas­ing eco­nom­ic strain…And that is the pro­found dan­ger that we see from great inequal­i­ty.” Eliz­a­beth War­ren (D‑MA)

Democ­rats are still sting­ing from last month’s epic defeat at the polls.  Some of them attribute that unhap­py out­come to ide­o­log­i­cal tem­per­ance.  The par­ty would do bet­ter, some argue, if their can­di­dates took a more stri­dent tone, denounc­ing the rich, preach­ing that Wash­ing­ton gov­erns in the ser­vice of Wall Street, and call­ing for more aggres­sive redis­tri­b­u­tion of income and wealth to damp­en ris­ing inequality.

But a new study pub­lished in the South­ern Eco­nom­ic Jour­nal pulls at a crit­i­cal thread of that nar­ra­tive.  It found that, at least accord­ing to one mea­sure of income, the gap between rich and poor actu­al­ly nar­rowed between 1989 and 2007. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Inequality: What We Earn vs. What We Consume

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Is inequality better measured by what we earn or what we spend? The difference is surprising. [Credit: Politic.org]

Is inequal­i­ty bet­ter mea­sured by what we earn or what we spend? The dif­fer­ence is sur­pris­ing. [Cred­it: Politic.org]

Is your stan­dard of liv­ing bet­ter mea­sured by what you earn or by what you buy?

The ques­tion may seem an odd one, but it is crit­i­cal to under­stand­ing the prob­lem of ris­ing inequal­i­ty. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Paul Krugman and the Inequality Deniers

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Recent criticism of Thomas Piketty's Capital in the 21st Centruy has drawn the ire of the splenetic Paul Krugman. [Credit: National Review]

Recent crit­i­cism of Thomas Piket­ty’s Cap­i­tal in the 21st Cen­tu­ry has drawn the ire of the sple­net­ic Paul Krug­man. [Cred­it: Nation­al Review]

There is grow­ing con­cern among peo­ple on the Right and Left about income inequal­i­ty. But you wouldn’t know that from read­ing Paul Krugman’s lat­est screed.

What stirred Krugman’s bile this week was crit­i­cism of econ­o­mist Thomas Piketty’s book, Cap­i­tal in the 21st Cen­tu­ry, a work that has attained canon­i­cal sta­tus among the Left on both sides of the Atlantic. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Politics as the Art of Spurning Compromise

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It may take a bigger gavel for House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-WI) and his Senate counterpart Patty Murray (D-WA) to hammer out a budget agreement. (Credit: Swampland Times)

It may take a big­ger gav­el for House Bud­get Com­mit­tee Chair­man Paul Ryan (R‑WI) and his Sen­ate coun­ter­part Pat­ty Mur­ray (D‑WA) to ham­mer out a bud­get agree­ment. (Cred­it: Swamp­land Times)

Bud­get nego­tia­tors have strug­gled for near­ly two months to find agree­ment on the out­lines of a spend­ing bill that would fund the gov­ern­ment after Jan­u­ary 15.  The tar­get date for a deal is next Fri­day. They hope to meet it.

The agree­ment that con­tin­ues to elude them, if it comes at all, would be a small one. Gone are aspi­ra­tions for a “grand bar­gain” that would reform enti­tle­ments and the tax code and replace future across-the-board cuts with some­thing less mind­less. Changes to Medicare, Med­ic­aid, Social Secu­ri­ty and oth­er “manda­to­ry” spend­ing pro­grams, which togeth­er con­sti­tute 63 per­cent of non-inter­est gov­ern­ment spend­ing, are off the table.  So, too, are tax­es. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

ObamaCare and the Arc of Conservative Wishful Thinking

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HHS simplified the application form, but is the health law still too complicated? [Credit: TakePart.com]

HHS sim­pli­fied the appli­ca­tion form, but is the health law still too com­pli­cat­ed? [Cred­it: TakePart.com]

“The Oba­maCare Blame Game” is the title of a piece by my friend and Hud­son Insti­tute fel­low Tevi Troy that will soon be pub­lished in the June 2013 Com­men­tary [no link avail­able]. Pars­ing the state­ments of Pres­i­dent Oba­ma and oth­er Demo­c­ra­t­ic lead­ers, Troy observes a curi­ous turn in how they talk about their new health care law: they have begun to admit that it might not work out as well as planned. Con­tin­ue read­ing →