Tag Archives: CBO

CBO’s Alternate Facts About Obamacare

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Millions may lose cov­er­age next year if Con­gress does not repeal Oba­macare.

That’s not what this week’s Con­gres­sion­al Bud­get Office (CBO) analy­sis says, but it is real­i­ty. CBO’s esti­mat­ing mod­els seem imper­vi­ous to reality.

In the real world, the Oba­macare exchanges are in cri­sis, mil­lions of unin­sured peo­ple will­ing­ly pay or avoid IRS penal­ties, and con­sumers strug­gle with ris­ing pre­mi­ums and cost-shar­ing require­ments.  Read more on Nation­al Review Online.

What We Know And Don’t Know About Obamacare, Part I

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Obamacare's third open enrollment season launched yesterday. Here are six things we know about the program. (Tomorrow: four things we still don't know.) Credit:americanlegislator.org

Oba­macare’s third open enroll­ment sea­son launched yes­ter­day. Here are six things we know about the pro­gram. (Tomor­row: four things we still don’t know.) Credit:americanlegislator.org

Obamacare’s third open enroll­ment sea­son has kicked off, begin­ning the next chap­ter in its tur­bu­lent his­to­ry.  Today’s post dis­cuss­es what we know about Oba­macare.  Tomorrow’s will dis­cuss what we still don’t know.

What We Know

Few­er peo­ple are unin­sured. How many few­er is a mat­ter of dis­pute, but the improve­ment is sub­stan­tial by any mea­sure.  HHS Sec­re­tary Sylvia Bur­well cred­its Oba­macare with reduc­ing the num­ber of unin­sured peo­ple by 17.6 mil­lion since 2010.   And though you’ll like­ly hear this num­ber repeat­ed (and often round­ed up to 18 mil­lion), it’s almost cer­tain­ly exag­ger­at­ed.   Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Obamacare’s Next Chapter

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Chief Justice John Roberts ' opinion in King v. Burwell betrayed widely-held misconceptions about health insurance markets. [Credit: Human Events]

Chief Jus­tice John Roberts ’ opin­ion in King v. Bur­well repeat­ed wide­ly-held mis­con­cep­tions about health insur­ance mar­kets.  Con­ser­v­a­tives should take note. [Cred­it: Human Events]

“The Patient Pro­tec­tion and Afford­able Care Act grew out of a long his­to­ry of failed health insur­ance reform.” Chief Jus­tice John Roberts, in uphold­ing Oba­macare subsidies.

Oba­macare is the newest chap­ter in that long his­to­ry of failed health insur­ance reform.  Con­ser­v­a­tives who hope one day to replace it would do well to learn from its errors and con­ceits. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

How Cutting Jobless Benefits Cut Joblessness

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During his December 2013 Hawaiian vacation, President Obama phoned lawmakers, asking them to extend unemployment benefits. They did not. Which is a good thing, according to a new study published by NBER. [Credit: Fox News]

Dur­ing his Decem­ber 2013 Hawai­ian vaca­tion, Pres­i­dent Oba­ma phoned law­mak­ers, ask­ing them to extend unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits. They did not. Which is a good thing, accord­ing to a new study pub­lished by NBER. [Cred­it: Fox News]

A lit­tle more than a year ago, the Pres­i­dent was dis­tressed.  It was a few days after Christ­mas 2013, and extend­ed unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits for 1.3 mil­lion peo­ple were about to expire.  In a typ­i­cal­ly per­func­to­ry lob­by­ing effort, he called two Sen­a­tors to urge them to move a bill to pre­serve the benefits.

To recov­er from his exer­tions, he and his fam­i­ly then “ven­tured to the white-sand beach at Bel­lows Air Force Sta­tion, which is on the wind­ward side of the island of Oahu and fea­tures turquoise water and a stun­ning view of the Moku­lua Islands,” the Wash­ing­ton Post reported.

That tran­quil scene augured the best year for U.S. employ­ment growth since 1999.   Accord­ing to the Labor Depart­ment, the econ­o­my added more than 3.1 mil­lion jobs in 2014.  The topline unem­ploy­ment rate was 5.6% in Decem­ber, down from 6.7% the pri­or Decem­ber and the low­est rate since June 2008.

And here is the sur­pris­ing major rea­son for the resur­gence in employ­ment: Con­gress spurned the President’s entreaties and let extend­ed unem­ploy­ment ben­e­fits expire. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

What We Know And Don’t Know About Obamacare

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The White House spent billions last year on efforts like this to promote Obamacare enrollment. How will they do this year? [Credit: Washington Post]

The White House spent bil­lions last year on efforts like this to pro­mote Oba­macare enroll­ment. How will they do this year? [Cred­it: Wash­ing­ton Post]

If you are a law­ful res­i­dent of the Unit­ed States and you lack health insur­ance today, it’s almost cer­tain­ly your fault.  You can’t blame your employ­er, the gov­ern­ment or the insur­ance com­pa­nies.  It’s on you.

That is the last­ing achieve­ment of Oba­macare, whose sec­ond open enroll­ment peri­od began yes­ter­day. Gone are the days when peo­ple with pre-exist­ing med­ical con­di­tions could not find afford­able cov­er­age.   Whether the ends of this achieve­ment, which are unde­ni­ably good, jus­ti­fy the means its sup­port­ers employed to win its enact­ment remains a mat­ter of con­tro­ver­sy. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Tolerance, The Amish And Hobby Lobby

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Pamela Harris, shown here with her disabled son, prevailed at the Supreme Court this week in her challenge to an Illinois law requiring her to pay union dues. [Credit: Heartland Institute]

Pamela Har­ris, shown here with her dis­abled son, pre­vailed at the Supreme Court this week in her chal­lenge to an Illi­nois law requir­ing her to pay union dues. [Cred­it: Heart­land Institute]

For a brief time dur­ing the 1980s, I was Direc­tor of Pol­i­cy Devel­op­ment for the Social Secu­ri­ty Admin­is­tra­tion.  The title is more glo­ri­fied than the real­i­ty.  Social Secu­ri­ty is a big and ossi­fied pro­gram that resists “pol­i­cy devel­op­ment.”  Con­gress, ever cog­nizant of the polit­i­cal risks of tam­per­ing with the pro­gram, had been forced by its loom­ing insol­ven­cy to pass a mas­sive law hik­ing pay­roll tax­es and rais­ing the retire­ment age just a few years before.  They were in no mood to enter­tain addi­tion­al legislation.

But my job was to pre­pare options for the Commissioner’s con­sid­er­a­tion, so I met with career staff who had an idea: why not advo­cate for a bill requir­ing self-employed Amish farm­ers to pay social secu­ri­ty tax­es? Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Inequality: What We Earn vs. What We Consume

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Is inequality better measured by what we earn or what we spend? The difference is surprising. [Credit: Politic.org]

Is inequal­i­ty bet­ter mea­sured by what we earn or what we spend? The dif­fer­ence is sur­pris­ing. [Cred­it: Politic.org]

Is your stan­dard of liv­ing bet­ter mea­sured by what you earn or by what you buy?

The ques­tion may seem an odd one, but it is crit­i­cal to under­stand­ing the prob­lem of ris­ing inequal­i­ty. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Obamacare By The Numbers: Medicaid

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Obamacare supporters are greatly inflating estimates of the number of previously uninsured people that have gained coverage because of the new law. Here's sensible look at the numbers. [Credit: CNN/Money]

Oba­macare sup­port­ers are great­ly inflat­ing esti­mates of the num­ber of pre­vi­ous­ly unin­sured peo­ple that have gained cov­er­age because of the new law. Here’s sen­si­ble look at the num­bers. [Cred­it: CNN/Money]

Near­ly 13 mil­lion Amer­i­cans now have health insur­ance thanks to Oba­macare. Tell Repub­li­cans to stop vot­ing to take their cov­er­age away. – Demo­c­ra­t­ic Leg­isla­tive Cam­paign Com­mit­tee peti­tion drive

Hyper­bole over how many peo­ple have pre­sum­ably gained health cov­er­age as the result of Oba­macare won’t sub­side any­time soon. At its cur­rent pace, we seem des­tined to reach the point where the num­ber of peo­ple who are alleged to have gained cov­er­age because of Oba­macare sur­pass­es the num­ber that lacked cov­er­age in the first place. Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Obamacare: Should Taxpayers Take the Risk of Subsidies?

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I testified on Obamacare yesterday before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee.

I tes­ti­fied on Oba­macare yes­ter­day before the House Over­sight and Gov­ern­ment Reform Committee.

I tes­ti­fied yes­ter­day before the House Over­sight and Gov­ern­ment Reform Com­mit­tee on a some­what tech­ni­cal pro­vi­sion of Oba­macare.  The pro­vi­sion estab­lish­es “risk cor­ri­dors,” which lim­it prof­its and loss­es of insur­ers that sell through the exchanges.  Plans that make “excess prof­its” must pay into the risk cor­ri­dor fund; those that suf­fer “excess loss­es” receive mon­ey from that fund.   Con­tin­ue read­ing →

Obamacare’s Comfort Food For The Insurance Industry

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The President huddled with health insurance executives last month, part of a White House effort to assure them that the government has their back. (Credit: LA Times)

The Pres­i­dent hud­dled with health insur­ance exec­u­tives last month, part of a White House effort to assure them that the gov­ern­ment has their back. (Cred­it: LA Times)

The healthcare.gov web­site now works to the Admin­is­tra­tion’s sat­is­fac­tion.  While only 30 per­cent of users could enroll when the site first launched, it’s now up to 80 per­cent.

Frus­trat­ing one in five poten­tial cus­tomers, evi­dent­ly the gold stan­dard for the White House, is viewed less favor­ably by pri­vate insur­ers.  It’s among the rea­sons that the health care law is caus­ing such anx­i­ety in the C‑suites of insur­ance com­pa­nies that are hop­ing to prof­it by sell­ing poli­cies through the exchanges. Which is why White House meet­ings with insur­ance exec­u­tives are hap­pen­ing more fre­quent­ly than Cab­i­net meet­ings. Con­tin­ue read­ing →