Economist and investment strategist Jeffrey Snider offers an intriguing explanation. In a recent essay Snider recounts the battle between Sony and Toshiba over standards for DVD players with HD capabilities to show how the robust competition that benefits the economy naturally yields to an anti-competitive impulse that impairs it.
The story began in Japan at a little company called Nichia, which Snider describes as “small purveyor and manufacturer of phosphors for fluorescent lamps.” Hardly exciting stuff. Until one of its employees, Shuji Nakamura, devised a way to use a blue laser to increase the storage capacity of a DVD disk fivefold. Nakamura’s innovation would make it possible to manufacture DVDs that could store content in high definition. As the research advanced, Sony formed a partnership with Nichia beginning in 2002, and in June 2006, Sony introduced its first Blu-Ray DVD player.
It was not first to market though. Toshiba had introduced its HD-DVD player in April 2006, and at a much more attractive price. With memories of its failed Betamax VCR technology of the 1980s, Sony was not eager for competition. The company had worked with other larger electronic manufacturers to create a single standard for the new technology to avoid the sort of competition that had resulted in the Betamax debacle. But Toshiba would have none of it, sticking with its own standards in the belief that it could best Sony in a direct competition.
So the two technology companies waged a spirited battle for consumers, offering them an improved viewing experience at affordable prices. In the end, as we all know, Sony won. The turning point came, Snider says, when the company decided to install Blu-Ray technology on its Playstation 3 devices. Putting the new technology on a gaming platform, rather than selling it to consumers as a separate device, was a big risk for Sony, and one it might never have taken if not pushed to do so by its competition with Toshiba. Snider reckons that the company absorbed $3 billion in losses as a result of the decision. But Sony’s move proved even more costly to Toshiba. With the Blu-Ray technology now available on millions of devices, Toshiba was forced to cede the field. It stopped making HD DVDs in early 2008.
Eager to recoup its losses after winning the competition, Sony then sought to consolidate its gains. The growing popularity of streaming technology represents a threat. High speed internet is now broadly available and new and more sophisticated smartphones and tablets give consumers the ability to stream content on multiple devices no matter where they are. You no longer need the Blu-Ray player in your living room to watch a movie. Now you can access that movie anywhere on your iPad.
And that’s bad news for Sony. The company doesn’t want its platform to go the way of Betamax, with the public choosing streaming over DVDs. Sony, which holds the rights to many movies and television programs in addition to being a technology manufacturer, is leveraging those rights with online providers. One result is that companies like Netflix are not licensed to stream many movies. Last month, the company dropped nearly 1800 titles from its “instant queue.” There are numerous reasons for this, including competition from other streaming providers and the understandable desire of studios and creators to extract the maximum profit from their works. But Sony’s powerful incentive to stifle competition from a new platform is undeniably a factor.
Snider draws an important lesson from the Blu-Ray narrative:
“That is the nature and cycle of both capitalism and businesses. They innovate and grow successful, then become encapsulated by the need and desire to protect what they have made. It is far easier, as the Blu-Ray saga shows, to simply profit from existing technology than to try to win with a new one. Mature companies do not always favor new innovation unless there is true competition to force it upon them…The one “flaw” in the capitalist design, if it can be called that, is that successful capitalist businesses will always end up as these kinds of mature companies.”
There is a corrective for this flaw, Snider says:
“Perpetual innovation will either destroy the mature business or force it to adopt competing innovation. In either case, the economic system benefits as new technology gains a potential mass audience where competition aims to reduce its cost as far and as fast as profitably (in the long-term sense) possible. Instability is progress.”
If instability is progress, then stability is not. Snider sees signs of stability everywhere and that, he believes, helps explain both economic stagnation and income inequality.
He notes that in the quarter century between 1955 and 1980, there was a rather remarkable turnover in the composition of the 100 largest companies. Since 1980, that churning has subsided, a sure sign that the creative destruction of capitalist instability has been gradually yielding to the stability that is the bane of progress.
“In 1955, IBM was ranked #61 on Fortune’s 500 list, just behind such companies as National Intergroup, Olin, Asarco and Allis-Chalmers. By 1965, IBM was #9. Of those others, only Olin remained in the top 95…The turnover of traditional productive companies near the top was regular between 1955 and 1980, but less so after. Big companies have tended to remain the big companies in the past few decades.”
Snider observes that one big exception to this stability has been the rise of companies in the financial sector, something that provides him scant comfort. He sees last decade’s ascent to Fortune’s Top 20 of such banking behemoths as Citigroup, Bank of America and JP Morgan Chase as symptoms of what he calls “the unyielding financialization of the domestic economy.” And that, he argues, is not good news.
“Where productive, industrial businesses once ruled in temporary situation, interchanging as living standards continually grew through the vital instability of innovation, the financial firms have since forced their way into the top spots. In the first quarter of 1951, financial businesses earned about $3.2 billion in profits (annual rate) out of $40.2 billion (8%) for total US corporate businesses. By 1981, it was $29.9 billion (13.5%) out of $221 billion total. By 2005, the financial economy had “earned” $425 billion (30.2%) out of $1.4 trillion. Where total profits grew 537% between 1981 and 2005, financial profits grew by 1,323%. And as the number of banks, brokers and insurance companies generating those profits shrank, they became more and more concentrated at the top of not only the industry, but the entire corporate landscape.”
Snider finds that change in the corporate landscape to be especially troublesome because “innovation in finance is not about increasing the living standards of the economic system, it is the all-encompassing pursuit of size.”
The subprime mortgage debacle is the direct result of this pursuit. Seeking to grow by expanding credit and running short of creditworthy borrowers, banks sought out customers who weren’t so creditworthy. When those loans began to sour, many banks were pushed to the brink of ruin. Governments around the world, spooked by the consequences of banking giants failing, generally spared them from the consequences of their bad behavior.
Since then, central banks have continued to favor the biggest banks, plying them with cheap money through miniscule interest rates and quantitative easing on the theory that what’s good for the banks is good for the economy. Quantitative easing’s one “success” is the stock market boom. But that does little for tens of millions of Americans whose standard of living depends more on their wages than on their stock portfolios. The “wealth effect” of the Federal Reserve’s interventions hasn’t reached most workers or job-seekers.
The perverse relationship between joblessness and equity prices was on display again Friday when a dreary employment report helped spur a stock market rally. The uptick in unemployment and lackluster job growth convinced big investors that the Fed would continue its bond-buying program. Continued high unemployment = continued Federal Reserve bond purchases = higher stock prices = more income inequality.
Snider, unlike central bankers, isn’t at all surprised by this result. He believes that economic growth and broad improvements in living standards result from competition among “productive, industrial businesses” in a permanent state of competition, not from large financial institutions in a permanent state of reliance on government monetary interventions.
Maybe it’s time for policymakers to consider the possibility that Snider just might have a point.
![Sony prevailed over Toshiba in the shoot-out over high-def DVDs. [Credit: originalprop.com]](https://i0.wp.com/www.dougsbriefcase.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/BluRay-v-DVD-image.jpg?resize=212%2C238)
Crony “capitalism” is not capitalism. It’s cronyism.
Great post, Doug.
Thanks, Don. See you Thursday night at the Nickles reception.
Doug