![The Mets celebrated their NL East championship on Saturday night, leaving the Nats stuck in their culture of underachievement. [Credit: Dayton Daily News]](https://i0.wp.com/www.dougsbriefcase.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2015/09/credit-dayton-daily-news.jpg?resize=300%2C208)
The Mets celebrated their NL East championship on Saturday night, leaving the Nats stuck in their culture of underachievement. [Credit: Dayton Daily News]
Both Boehner and the Washington Nationals’ manager began the year with high expectations. Boehner presided over the largest GOP majority since 1931. Williams led a high payroll team rich in talent. Both were undermined by people they were chosen to lead, then blamed for failures that were the fault of their followers.
I was among those who thought the Nationals were a lock to win baseball’s weakest division, predicting earlier this month that the Mets would squander a six-game lead. They didn’t. By Saturday night, New York had secured the division championship. How did I get it so wrong?
I was right about the Mets pitching, wrong about their hitting. In winning six of seven games over ten days against the woeful Phillies, New York’s pitching staff showed palpable signs of wear. The Phillies, who rank 28th of 30 major league teams in offensive output, had hung up 19 runs in three games against the Mets. If the punchless Phils could pummel their staff, surely New York’s fabled arms were wearing down. Turns out that they were. Through the end of August, the Mets posted an enviable 3.30 ERA. This month, it is nearly a run per game higher at 4.29, placing them 19th in baseball.
Their hitting has more than compensated for that deterioration, something I did not anticipate. Through games of September 3, a disproportionate share of their offensive output had come at the expense of the Phillies, a team with ghastly pitching. But that anomaly disguised a fundamental transformation that coincided with their July 31 acquisition of Yoenis Cespedes.
Almost immediately, the Mets evolved from a team that relied primarily on its pitchers to one carried by its hitters. Through yesterday’s games, the Mets had scored more runs since August 1 than any other team in baseball. Their 168 runs in August easily surpassed their previous monthly high of 97. They averaged six runs per game that month, making them the second most productive team in baseball in August, a position they also occupy in September. They ranked 28th in May in that category, 27th in June and 24th in July. Since August 1, they’ve plated 5.81 runs per game, compared with the 3.54 runs they averaged over the first four months of the season. That’s an increase of more than two runs per game, more than enough to compensate for weary arms.
I was so focused on the decline in their pitching that I completely whiffed on just how good Mets hitting had become, erroneously dismissing it as largely an artifact of their performance against the Phillies.
I was wrong about Bryce Harper. A bit off point, but since I’m chronicling my errors, I should note that I’d written last spring that Harper was very good, but not nearly as good as he imagines himself to be. I’d observed that in 2013 and 2014 he hadn’t finished in the top 50 in Wins Above Replacement (WAR), a statistic that attempts to capture a player’s overall performance in a single index. Then there was the verdict of his peers. Harper’s fellow major leaguers had voted him the game’s most overrated player two years in succession.
That won’t happen this year. Harper is this season’s best player, compiling a WAR of 9.8 according to FanGraphs No player in either league comes close. He has a .470 on-base average, meaning that he reaches base nearly half the time he comes to the plate and a .663 slugging percentage, meaning that when he hits the ball, it is often for extra bases. He leads the majors in both categories. He has an ungodly OPS+ of 203. Translation: his offensive output is twice that of an average big leaguer. For those who prefer more traditional metrics, his .336 batting average and 41 homers both lead the National League.
Harper has had a great 2015 and richly deserves to be named most valuable player.
I was right about the Nats. Right about their hubris, I mean, not about winning their godawful division just by showing up. The team again proved itself “a perfect fit for the nation’s capital, combining invincible self-esteem with chronic underachievement,” as I wrote last spring. Bryce Harper remains the face of the franchise’s pathological lack of self-awareness. As the team crumbled against the Mets, succumbing to them in Washington three straight times to seal their doom, Harper whined about the fans. “They left in the seventh,” he said, “so, you know, that’s pretty brutal.”
Harper seemed oblivious to why the fans left: the team’s “pretty brutal” play. Its pitchers yielded 21 runs (19 earned) over three games, 14 of them in the seventh inning or later. Its relievers compiled a 13.50 ERA in the series, twice blowing leads in the seventh inning and once in the eighth. Which is why, Bryce, the fans didn’t stick around through the end of the game. They couldn’t bear to watch highly-touted, lavishly compensated players who, for the fourth consecutive year, melted down on their home field without coming within shouting distance of a World Series.
When they’re not publicly faulting their fans, the players are anonymously heaping blame on their manager, Matt Williams. A number of them spoke to a Washington Post reporter as the Nats slid toward oblivion. In their telling, Williams created a bad off-the-field atmosphere that was a source of the team’s unraveling. “It’s a terrible environment,” one player said. “And the amazing part is everybody feels that way.”
Better to blame your leader than to take full responsibility for your own failure. Which brings us to John Boehner, who last week liberated himself from a dysfunctional Republican caucus that includes dozens of lawmakers single-mindedly focused on his ouster.
Boehner spared them the trouble, stepping aside voluntarily and with evident delight. Boehner’s critics are celebrating his departure as though it were an achievement. It is nothing of the sort. A party with a 59-seat majority in the House and control of the Senate should have accomplished something legislatively, reining in a lame duck President with underwater approval ratings. That, however, requires legislators who know how to legislate or, failing that, the humility and self-awareness to follow leaders who do.
But humility and self-awareness are no more common in the halls of Congress than in the Nationals’ dugout. Legislative acumen, meanwhile, is disdained and those who possess it scorned as Washington insiders. So the party’s lesser lights prevent Congress from achieving anything of substance by defying their leaders, then blame their leaders when nothing is achieved.
Last November, John Boehner led House Republicans to their most substantial majority in generations. A week later, Matt Williams was named manager of the year. By this November, both may well have moved on, leaving behind organizations that include too many people whose self-esteem is undented by their own incompetence.
!!!! Right on, Doug
I’m sure you saw the news about the Papelbon — Harper bout. After the melee, Papelbon goes back to the mound and promptly serves up five runs.
Way to keep your head in the game Jonathan. 🙂
Papelbon seems to lose it toward the end of the year. Last September, walking off the field after a blown save, he flipped off some fans behind the Phillies dugout and also earned a suspension. Don’t know why he was riding Harper about not running out a routine fly ball. Maybe he likes getting time off during the last week of the season.