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<\/a>Pro\u00adtest\u00aders crowd\u00aded Tahrir Square in Cairo ear\u00adli\u00ader this month to call for their Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adt\u2019s ouster. The mil\u00adi\u00adtary oblig\u00aded them. Is that the tri\u00adumph of democ\u00adra\u00adcy or just a mil\u00adi\u00adtary coup? [Cred\u00adit: Wash\u00ading\u00adton Times]<\/p><\/div>The Oba\u00adma pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adcy, now well into its fifth year, seems as flum\u00admoxed by glob\u00adal devel\u00adop\u00adments as it did in its first. Egypt pro\u00advides the most recent example. \n
In 2011, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent at first stood by<\/a> Egypt\u00adian strong\u00adman Hos\u00adni Mubarak, only to hail his ouster as the green shoots of Arab Spring. Last month, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma was firm\u00adly behind Mohamed Mor\u00adsi, but then refused to con\u00addemn <\/a>his mil\u00adi\u00adtary overthrow.<\/p>\n The Pres\u00adi\u00addent finds him\u00adself in a ter\u00adri\u00adbly dif\u00adfi\u00adcult posi\u00adtion. Unable to influ\u00adence events, he at times strug\u00adgles even to express his inten\u00adtions<\/a>. He didn\u2019t describe the military\u2019s over\u00adthrow of the Mor\u00adsi regime as a coup, but inti\u00admat\u00aded that it wasn\u2019t legal. He didn\u2019t threat\u00aden to cut off $1.5 bil\u00adlion in annu\u00adal Amer\u00adi\u00adcan aid, but he didn\u2019t rule it out either.<\/p>\n His crit\u00adics have been less ret\u00adi\u00adcent. For John McCain<\/a> (R\u2011AZ<\/span>), this was a mil\u00adi\u00adtary coup that tram\u00adpled on the frag\u00adile Egypt\u00adian con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion. He called for cut\u00adting off US<\/span> assis\u00adtance to the belea\u00adguered coun\u00adtry. For oth\u00aders, it was a recrude\u00ads\u00adcence of the Arab Spring, in which young demon\u00adstra\u00adtors with smart\u00adphones and Face\u00adbook accounts top\u00adpled a tyrant; democracy\u2019s tri\u00adumph <\/a>over tyran\u00adny.<\/p>\n Then there are those who yearn for the good old days when the US<\/span> gov\u00adern\u00adment could advance its inter\u00adests and shape world events or at least maybe see a coup com\u00ading. These are the peo\u00adple who are most aggriev\u00aded by the President\u2019s inde\u00adci\u00adsive\u00adness<\/a>. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent doesn\u2019t seem know which out\u00adcome in Egypt is most con\u00adge\u00adnial to US<\/span> goals and ambi\u00adtions \u2014 a pop\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly-elect\u00aded Islamist, a mil\u00adi\u00adtary dic\u00adta\u00adtor\u00adship or a sec\u00adu\u00adlar demo\u00adc\u00adra\u00adt\u00adic repub\u00adlic \u2013 much less how to nudge Egypt in a par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar direction.<\/p>\n His crit\u00adics have some\u00adthing the Pres\u00adi\u00addent lacks: cer\u00adti\u00adtude. They dif\u00adfer in how they view devel\u00adop\u00adments in Egypt, but they see them in black and white \u2014 as a mil\u00adi\u00adtary coup that vio\u00adlat\u00aded the Egypt\u00adian con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion, as an exer\u00adcise in democ\u00adra\u00adcy by pro\u00adtes\u00adtors in Cairo, as evi\u00addence that our nation\u2019s abil\u00adi\u00adty to influ\u00adence world events has declined.<\/p>\n The Pres\u00adi\u00addent, hav\u00ading repeat\u00aded\u00adly been made to look fool\u00adish by rash pro\u00adnounce\u00adments on Egypt, now appre\u00adci\u00adates its com\u00adplex\u00adi\u00adty. It sim\u00adply is not yet clear what is best for Egypt, much less for U.S. inter\u00adests. Hence the Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adt\u2019s lack of clarity.<\/p>\n We have a habit of view\u00ading occur\u00adrences like this in very sim\u00adple terms: do they advance or impede democ\u00adra\u00adcy? In this case, at least, they are not that simple.<\/p>\n Islamists also offer a sim\u00adple nar\u00adra\u00adtive of world events, one that com\u00adbines medieval the\u00adol\u00ado\u00adgy with decid\u00aded\u00adly mod\u00adern griev\u00adances. Their Manichean view of oppres\u00adsors (us) vs. oppressed (them) recalls Marx\u00adist dialec\u00adtic. Their par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar adap\u00adta\u00adtion calls for the pro\u00adle\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan faith\u00adful to sub\u00admit to sharia law and revive the caliphate, so that Allah him\u00adself will crush their West\u00adern tor\u00admenters and estab\u00adlish theo\u00adcrat\u00adic paradise.<\/p>\n If that sounds a lit\u00adtle loopy to us, we need to remind our\u00adselves that mil\u00adlions of Egyp\u00adtians believe it. Their resis\u00adtance to Mor\u00adsi\u2019s ouster and the mil\u00adi\u00adtary\u2019s bru\u00adtal\u00adi\u00adty in sup\u00adpress\u00ading it will not be soon for\u00adgot\u00adten, mak\u00ading the suc\u00adcess of Egypt\u00adian sec\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adists a bit of a long-shot.<\/p>\n Demo\u00adc\u00adra\u00adt\u00adic sen\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adties and Islamist hal\u00adlu\u00adci\u00adna\u00adtions are no match for Egyp\u00adt\u2019s harsh real\u00adi\u00adties. Its econ\u00ado\u00admy depends on imports. It must buy wheat and the diesel fuel need\u00aded to trans\u00adport it, among oth\u00ader things, and pro\u00advide mas\u00adsive sub\u00adsi\u00addies to vast chunks of its pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion to enable them mere\u00adly to sub\u00adsist. Pur\u00adchas\u00ading imports, in turn, requires for\u00adeign cur\u00adren\u00adcy, derived in large part from for\u00adeign investment.<\/p>\n While its econ\u00ado\u00admy was nev\u00ader stel\u00adlar, it was grow\u00ading until the effects of the 2008 glob\u00adal finan\u00adcial melt\u00addown and its prog\u00ade\u00adny, the sov\u00ader\u00adeign debt cri\u00adsis, took hold. Per capi\u00adta GDP<\/span><\/a> stalled after 2010 and the result\u00ading eco\u00adnom\u00adic mis\u00adery induced the wide\u00adspread unrest that led to Mubarak\u2019s removal. While that coup cheered the mass\u00ades, it didn\u2019t halt the country\u2019s eco\u00adnom\u00adic slide<\/a>. Nor did last year\u2019s elec\u00adtions. Indeed, the result\u00ading polit\u00adi\u00adcal insta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty wors\u00adened the country\u2019s prob\u00adlems<\/a>,<\/span> spurring infla\u00adtion, tepid growth and high unem\u00adploy\u00adment. Gov\u00adern\u00adment debt<\/a> mount\u00aded and suf\u00adfered a series of down\u00adgrades<\/a>,<\/span> for\u00adeign cap\u00adi\u00adtal<\/a> fled, tourism<\/a> flagged, and the cen\u00adtral bank deplet\u00aded its cur\u00adren\u00adcy reserves<\/a>. Amid dete\u00adri\u00ado\u00adrat\u00ading con\u00addi\u00adtions, dis\u00adsat\u00adis\u00adfac\u00adtion with the Mor\u00adsi gov\u00adern\u00adment grew, prompt\u00ading it to take a series of steps to enlarge his pow\u00ader. Mean\u00adwhile, Mor\u00adsi was unable to nego\u00adti\u00adate a $4.8 bil\u00adlion loan from the IMF<\/span><\/a>,<\/span> which con\u00addi\u00adtioned assis\u00adtance on the gov\u00adern\u00adment under\u00adtak\u00ading polit\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly sui\u00adci\u00addal mea\u00adsures like cut\u00adting food and fuel sub\u00adsi\u00addies to the strug\u00adgling masses.<\/p>\n The down\u00adward spi\u00adral of eco\u00adnom\u00adic woes, fis\u00adcal incon\u00adti\u00adnence, ham-hand\u00aded gov\u00ader\u00adnance, and pop\u00adu\u00adlar resent\u00adment prompt\u00aded the mil\u00adi\u00adtary to sweep Mor\u00adsi from pow\u00ader just a year after his elec\u00adtoral triumph.<\/p>\n