![\"Supporters](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/Immigration-photo-from-ABC-News.jpg\")
<\/a>Sup\u00adport\u00aders of immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform say it will spur growth and raise liv\u00ading stan\u00addards. Oppo\u00adnents dis\u00adagree. Who\u2019s right? [Cred\u00adit: ABCNews.go.com]<\/p><\/div>\u201cImmi\u00adgra\u00adtion Reform Would Boost Econ\u00ado\u00admy, CBO<\/span> Report Finds,\u201d ABC<\/span> News <\/a>report\u00aded last week.\n Not exact\u00adly.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n The Con\u00adgres\u00adsion\u00adal Bud\u00adget Office\u2019s assess\u00adment<\/a> of the near-term eco\u00adnom\u00adic impact of the immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform bill that the Sen\u00adate is expect\u00aded to pass this week or next is more nuanced than that. The report con\u00adfound\u00aded the bill\u2019s crit\u00adics by say\u00ading that it would reduce the fed\u00ader\u00adal deficit over the next two decades, but its assess\u00adment of the bill\u2019s eco\u00adnom\u00adic impact was mixed.<\/p>\n Before read\u00ading on, you should know that this post won\u2019t take a posi\u00adtion one way or the oth\u00ader on the immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform mea\u00adsure. The bill rais\u00ades com\u00adpli\u00adcat\u00aded and divi\u00adsive issues that pro\u00advoke emo\u00adtion\u00adal appeals and hyper\u00adbole from both sides. So if you\u2019re look\u00ading for a throw-\u2018em-out-and-seal-the-border screed or an appeal to offer free cof\u00adfee and donuts to peo\u00adple who cross our bor\u00adder, you\u2019ll have to look elsewhere.<\/p>\n Any\u00adbody left?<\/p>\n If so, let\u2019s start with the law\u2019s crit\u00adics. The Fed\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion for Amer\u00adi\u00adcan Immi\u00adgra\u00adtion Reform (FAIR<\/span><\/a>) says that immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform will hurt Amer\u00adi\u00adcan work\u00aders and degrade their work\u00ading conditions:<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>Immi\u00adgra\u00adtion con\u00adtributes to an already-exist\u00ading sur\u00adplus of low-skilled work\u00aders, increas\u00ading job com\u00adpe\u00adti\u00adtion and dri\u00adving down wages and con\u00addi\u00adtions to the detri\u00adment of Amer\u00adi\u00adcan work\u00aders. The pres\u00adence of a large ille\u00adgal work\u00adforce per\u00adpet\u00adu\u00adates a vicious cycle as degrad\u00aded work con\u00addi\u00adtions dis\u00adcour\u00adage Amer\u00adi\u00adcans from seek\u00ading these jobs and make employ\u00aders more depen\u00addent on an ille\u00adgal for\u00adeign work\u00adforce. America\u2019s mas\u00adsive low-skill labor force and ille\u00adgal alien pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion allow employ\u00aders to offer low pay and deplorable conditions.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n FAIR<\/span>\u2019s posi\u00adtion is rem\u00adi\u00adnis\u00adcent of that tak\u00aden in the past by orga\u00adnized labor. They see immi\u00adgra\u00adtion as a zero-sum game: a job giv\u00aden to a for\u00adeign-born work\u00ader is a job tak\u00aden from a work\u00ader born here. The field is tilt\u00aded toward a \u201clarge ille\u00adgal work\u00adforce\u201d because they are will\u00ading to accept low\u00ader salaries than US<\/span> cit\u00adi\u00adzens. So they cap\u00adture the lion\u2019s share of low-skill jobs, dri\u00adving down wages, ben\u00ade\u00adfits and work\u00adplace quality.<\/p>\n Such a stag\u00adnant approach to the econ\u00ado\u00admy strikes me as dis\u00adtort\u00aded. Labor increas\u00ades eco\u00adnom\u00adic out\u00adput regard\u00adless of where the work\u00ader was born. More\u00adover, the argu\u00adment is premised on the idea that all for\u00adeign-born work\u00aders are here ille\u00adgal\u00adly. Peo\u00adple who are here ille\u00adgal\u00adly under\u00adstand\u00adably will accept low\u00ader wages and poor\u00ader work\u00ading con\u00addi\u00adtions in exchange for evad\u00ading author\u00adi\u00adties and escap\u00ading depor\u00adta\u00adtion. One way to elim\u00adi\u00adnate this shad\u00adow econ\u00ado\u00admy is through mas\u00adsive depor\u00adta\u00adtion, a prac\u00adti\u00adcal impos\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty even if it were desir\u00adable. The oth\u00ader is through mas\u00adsive legal\u00adiza\u00adtion. A work\u00ader who doesn\u2019t have to wor\u00adry about being appre\u00adhend\u00aded by the author\u00adi\u00adties will like\u00adly demand the same wages and ben\u00ade\u00adfits as oth\u00ader Amer\u00adi\u00adcan cit\u00adi\u00adzens with com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00adble skills. So FAIR<\/span>\u2019s con\u00adtention ends up being an argu\u00adment in favor of the sort of immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform that it opposes.<\/p>\n The Her\u00aditage Foun\u00adda\u00adtion<\/a> also oppos\u00ades the Sen\u00adate bill. They issued a com\u00adpre\u00adhen\u00adsive and con\u00adtro\u00adver\u00adsial report on the bill\u2019s fis\u00adcal effects, esti\u00admat\u00ading that the bil\u00adl\u2019s net cost to the fed\u00ader\u00adal gov\u00adern\u00adment would be $6.3 tril\u00adlion on net over the next half cen\u00adtu\u00adry. (Kei\u00adth Hen\u00adnessey, with whom I worked both when we were Sen\u00adate staffers and lat\u00ader as White House aides, has post\u00aded an astute analy\u00adsis<\/a> of the report; Heritage\u2019s rejoin\u00adder is here<\/a>; Keith\u2019s response is here<\/a>.) But even while main\u00adtain\u00ading that the bill would place new bur\u00addens on the fed\u00ader\u00adal trea\u00adsury and the tax\u00adpay\u00aders who under\u00adwrite it, the report acknowl\u00adedges toward the end that new\u00adly legal\u00adized work\u00aders would lead to GDP<\/span> growth (as opposed to per capi\u00adta GDP<\/span> growth).<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>While it is true that unlaw\u00adful immi\u00adgrants enlarge GDP<\/span> by rough\u00adly 2 per\u00adcent, the prob\u00adlem with this argu\u00adment is that the immi\u00adgrants them\u00adselves cap\u00adture most of the gain from expand\u00aded pro\u00adduc\u00adtion in their own wages. Metaphor\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly, while unlaw\u00adful immi\u00adgrants make the Amer\u00adi\u00adcan eco\u00adnom\u00adic pie larg\u00ader, they them\u00adselves con\u00adsume most of the slice that their labor adds. The cen\u00adtral issue in the debate over the costs and ben\u00ade\u00adfits of unlaw\u00adful immi\u00adgra\u00adtion is not whether such immi\u00adgra\u00adtion makes U.S. GDP<\/span> larg\u00ader (clear\u00adly, it does), but whether unlaw\u00adful immi\u00adgra\u00adtion rais\u00ades the post-tax income of the aver\u00adage non-immi\u00adgrant American.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Her\u00aditage, unlike FAIR<\/span>, con\u00adcedes that the labor of immi\u00adgrants enlarges the eco\u00adnom\u00adic pie, but asserts that they con\u00adsume pret\u00adty much the entire new slice. That strikes me as odd. Peo\u00adple who earn more mon\u00adey tend to spend it and their spend\u00ading ben\u00ade\u00adfits oth\u00aders. A new\u00adly-legal\u00adized work\u00ader might use her wages to buy a new\u00ader car or fur\u00adni\u00adture or clothes for her chil\u00addren. All of that ben\u00ade\u00adfits her and her fam\u00adi\u00adly, of course, but it also ben\u00ade\u00adfits the mer\u00adchants she patron\u00adizes. To argue that her high\u00ader wages and the asso\u00adci\u00adat\u00aded increase in eco\u00adnom\u00adic out\u00adput ben\u00ade\u00adfits her alone with lit\u00adtle ben\u00ade\u00adfit to oth\u00aders seems unten\u00adable. [I\u2019ll deal with the bil\u00adl\u2019s effect on over\u00adall liv\u00ading stan\u00addards lat\u00ader in this post.]<\/p>\n If crit\u00adics of immi\u00adgra\u00adtion reform dis\u00admiss or under\u00adstate its eco\u00adnom\u00adic ben\u00ade\u00adfits, its sup\u00adport\u00aders over\u00adstate them. Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post blog\u00adger Ezra Klein<\/a> exudes exces\u00adsive enthu\u00adsi\u00adasm when he asks us to:<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>Con\u00adsid\u00ader a few facts about immi\u00adgrants in the Amer\u00adi\u00adcan econ\u00ado\u00admy: About a 10th of the U.S. pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion is for\u00adeign-born. More than a quar\u00adter of U.S. tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy and engi\u00adneer\u00ading busi\u00adness\u00ades start\u00aded from 1995 to 2005 had a for\u00adeign-born own\u00ader. In Sil\u00adi\u00adcon Val\u00adley, half of all tech star\u00adtups had a for\u00adeign-born founder. One-quar\u00adter of all U.S.-based Nobel lau\u00adre\u00adates of the past 50 years were for\u00adeign born. Right now, about half of the PhDs work\u00ading in sci\u00adence and tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy are for\u00adeign born.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Diana Furcht\u00adgott-Roth<\/a> of the Man\u00adhat\u00adtan Insti\u00adtute sim\u00adi\u00adlar\u00adly enthused:<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>Immi\u00adgrants increase eco\u00adnom\u00adic effi\u00adcien\u00adcy by reduc\u00ading labor short\u00adages in low- and high-skilled mar\u00adkets because their edu\u00adca\u00adtion\u00adal back\u00adgrounds fill holes in the native-born labor mar\u00adket. How\u00adev\u00ader, the share of immi\u00adgrants in the U.S. work\u00adforce has declined since its 1991 peak. Increased immi\u00adgra\u00adtion would expand the Amer\u00adi\u00adcan work-force, and encour\u00adage more busi\u00adness start-ups. Busi\u00adness\u00ades rang\u00ading from Apple Cor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00adtion to apple grow\u00aders would be able to find the work\u00aders they need in America.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n It\u2019s pret\u00adty clear how a change in our immi\u00adgra\u00adtion law would ben\u00ade\u00adfit Apple Cor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00adtion and apple grow\u00aders. Furcht\u00adgott-Roth notes that cur\u00adrent law restricts the num\u00adber of visas issued both to peo\u00adple with very high lev\u00adels of edu\u00adca\u00adtion attain\u00adment and to peo\u00adple seek\u00ading tem\u00adpo\u00adrary work on farms. The gov\u00adern\u00adment issues only 85,000 each year to for\u00adeign stu\u00addents who com\u00adplete advanced uni\u00adver\u00adsi\u00adty edu\u00adca\u00adtion here in the U.S. This lim\u00adi\u00adta\u00adtion on so-called \u201cH\u20111B<\/span>\u201d visas has cost the U.S. dear\u00adly, accord\u00ading to the Furcht\u00adgott-Roth. She cites the work of Arlene Holen, an econ\u00ado\u00admist and senior fel\u00adlow at the Tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy Pol\u00adi\u00adcy Institute.<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>Holen, using Con\u00adgres\u00adsion\u00adal Bud\u00adget Office method\u00adol\u00ado\u00adgy, has esti\u00admat\u00aded that if no green card or H\u20111B<\/span> visa con\u00adstraints had exist\u00aded in the peri\u00adod 2003-07, an addi\u00adtion\u00adal 182,000 for\u00adeign grad\u00adu\u00adates in sci\u00adence and tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy fields would have remained in the U.S. Their con\u00adtri\u00adbu\u00adtion to GDP<\/span> would have been $14 bil\u00adlion in 2008, includ\u00ading $2.7 to $3.6 bil\u00adlion in tax pay\u00adments. Three hun\u00addred thou\u00adsand H\u20111B<\/span> visa hold\u00aders would also have remained in the U.S. labor force, earn\u00ading $23 bil\u00adlion in 2008 and gen\u00ader\u00adat\u00ading $34\u2014$47 bil\u00adlion in tax rev\u00adenue over the next decade.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Furcht\u00adgott-Roth presents a sol\u00adid case for reform\u00ading immi\u00adgra\u00adtion pol\u00adi\u00adcy at the extremes: let\u00adting more unskilled work\u00aders find tem\u00adpo\u00adrary jobs as apple-pick\u00aders and let\u00adting more high\u00adly edu\u00adcat\u00aded work\u00aders get jobs at Apple. The prob\u00adlem, as this chart from its own report shows, is that most of the esti\u00admat\u00aded 11 mil\u00adlion peo\u00adple here ille\u00adgal\u00adly are some\u00adwhere between the two extremes:<\/p>\n For\u00adeign-born work\u00aders already are over\u00adrep\u00adre\u00adsent\u00aded in jobs that require doc\u00adtor\u00adal degrees in sci\u00adence and engi\u00adneer\u00ading and, at the oth\u00ader end, in jobs occu\u00adpied by peo\u00adple who haven\u2019t grad\u00adu\u00adat\u00aded high school. Relax\u00ading or remov\u00ading restric\u00adtions on spe\u00adcial visas issued to such peo\u00adple will increase their share of jobs at both ends of the curve.<\/p>\n But the eco\u00adnom\u00adic gain that Klein and the Furcht\u00adgott-Roth trum\u00adpet \u2013 the increas\u00ades in new patents, new busi\u00adness\u00ades and peo\u00adple with Ph.D.s in sci\u00adence and tech\u00adnol\u00ado\u00adgy \u2013 would be almost entire\u00adly accom\u00adplished by peo\u00adple on the right side of the curve. Fix\u00ading that prob\u00adlem is sim\u00adple: issue more H\u20111B<\/span> visas. Even some of the law\u2019s most stri\u00addent crit\u00adics would go along with that. You don\u2019t a need to grant legal sta\u00adtus to an esti\u00admat\u00aded 11 mil\u00adlion peo\u00adple to keep more peo\u00adple with Ph.D.s in the U.S.<\/p>\n<\/a>Immi\u00adgrants are dis\u00adpro\u00adpor\u00adtion\u00adate\u00adly rep\u00adre\u00adsent\u00aded among the ranks of entre\u00adpre\u00adneurs and braini\u00adacs, he says, and illus\u00adtrates with the chart to the left. So let\u00adting more in will pro\u00adduce eco\u00adnom\u00adic growth through the cre\u00adation of new busi\u00adness\u00ades, jobs and inno\u00adva\u00adtions that will increase pro\u00adduc\u00adtiv\u00adi\u00adty and over\u00adall eco\u00adnom\u00adic output.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n