![\"Hillary](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/11\/credit-NY-Daily-News.jpg\")
<\/a>Hillary Clin\u00adton pre\u00adsent\u00aded her plan for defeat\u00ading the Islam\u00adic State recent\u00adly. It won\u2019t work. Nor will those advanced by her Repub\u00adli\u00adcan oppo\u00adnents. [Cred\u00adit: NY<\/span> Dai\u00adly News]<\/p><\/div>When pressed by a nor\u00admal\u00adly docile gag\u00adgle of White House reporters recent\u00adly over whether he would con\u00adsid\u00ader chang\u00ading his failed Syr\u00adia strat\u00ade\u00adgy, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma revert\u00aded to form: he accused Repub\u00adli\u00adcans of reli\u00adgious big\u00adotry and cru\u00adel\u00adty to children.\n His polit\u00adi\u00adcal oppo\u00adnents, he said<\/a>,<\/span> believe that \u201conly Chris\u00adtians, proven Chris\u00adtians, should be admit\u00adted\u201d as refugees and that we \u201cshouldn\u2019t admit 3\u2011year old-orphans.\u201d<\/p>\n The President\u2019s efforts to divert atten\u00adtion from his for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy deba\u00adcles (which helped make orphans and refugees of three-year-olds) have so far fall\u00aden flat. The vast major\u00adi\u00adty of Amer\u00adi\u00adcans has lost con\u00adfi\u00addence in his cam\u00adpaign against the Islam\u00adic State. A Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post poll<\/a> found that 57 per\u00adcent dis\u00adap\u00adprove of the way he\u2019s deal\u00ading with the ter\u00adror\u00adist group \u2013 includ\u00ading 46 per\u00adcent who strong\u00adly dis\u00adap\u00adprove \u2013 against only 35 per\u00adcent who sup\u00adport him.<\/p>\n That pub\u00adlic sen\u00adti\u00adment, of lit\u00adtle inter\u00adest to the Pres\u00adi\u00addent, is a lead\u00ading con\u00adcern for those vying to suc\u00adceed him. Even Bernie Sanders claims to have a plan<\/a> to destroy the Islam\u00adic State. Though they dif\u00adfer in cer\u00adtain respects, most of these plans call for drop\u00adping more bombs against more tar\u00adgets from planes fly\u00ading the flags of more coun\u00adtries (with the pos\u00adsi\u00adble excep\u00adtion of Rus\u00adsia), pro\u00advid\u00ading more arms to fac\u00adtions we don\u2019t real\u00adly know and can\u2019t real\u00adly trust, and deploy\u00ading more mil\u00adi\u00adtary \u201cadvis\u00aders\u201d (not to be con\u00adfused with \u201cboots on the ground\u201d) to the region.<\/p>\n All of them sug\u00adgest that Islam\u00adic State can be van\u00adquished with rel\u00ada\u00adtive ease and at lit\u00adtle cost. All of them are blow\u00ading smoke.<\/p>\n Rewrit\u00ading History<\/strong><\/p>\n Hillary Clin\u00adton advanced her plan in a recent address<\/a> to the Coun\u00adcil on For\u00adeign Rela\u00adtions. The speech aimed to make her sound smart and tough, and in the process put some dis\u00adtance between her\u00adself and the Pres\u00adi\u00addent. But not too much, giv\u00aden her depen\u00addence on him to turn out minor\u00adi\u00adty vot\u00aders in next November\u2019s elec\u00adtions. So she set\u00adtled for metaphors, sug\u00adgest\u00ading that that she didn\u2019t want a new strat\u00ade\u00adgy so much as an \u201cinten\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtion, an accel\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion\u201d of the exist\u00ading one.<\/p>\n She was, how\u00adev\u00ader, will\u00ading to sug\u00adgest that mis\u00adtakes were made \u2013 by the Pres\u00adi\u00addent, of course, not by his for\u00admer Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State. \u201cI thought we need\u00aded to do more ear\u00adli\u00ader,\u201d she said, \u201cto try to iden\u00adti\u00adfy indige\u00adnous Syr\u00adi\u00adan fight\u00aders, so-called \u2018mod\u00ader\u00adates\u2019 \u2013 and I do think there were some ear\u00adly on \u2013 that we could have done more to help them in their fight against Assad.\u201d<\/p>\n So if the Pres\u00adi\u00addent had vet\u00adted, trained and armed more Syr\u00adi\u00adan mod\u00ader\u00adates back when Syr\u00adi\u00adan mod\u00ader\u00adates exist\u00aded, things might have turned out dif\u00adfer\u00adent\u00adly. Clin\u00adton didn\u2019t men\u00adtion that the U.S. gov\u00adern\u00adment last month scrapped its pro\u00adgram<\/a> to recruit mod\u00ader\u00adates after $500 mil\u00adlion in spend\u00ading net\u00adted few\u00ader than 80 sol\u00addiers, many of whom fled soon after enter\u00ading combat.<\/p>\n That wasn\u2019t her only recast\u00ading of his\u00adto\u00adry. Clin\u00adton repeat\u00aded\u00adly cit\u00aded Libya as a for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy suc\u00adcess, over\u00adlook\u00ading the fact that our removal of Gaddafi pro\u00adduced a jiha\u00addi jun\u00adgle every bit as dead\u00adly as the one that pre\u00advails in Syr\u00adia, one that now includes an Islam\u00adic State strong\u00adhold<\/a>.<\/p>\n But her biggest whop\u00adper was her account of the last Iraq War. She praised what she called the \u201cfirst Sun\u00adni awak\u00aden\u00ading,\u201d in which Amer\u00adi\u00adca per\u00adsuad\u00aded Sun\u00adni tribes \u201cjoin us in root\u00ading out Al Qae\u00adda.\u201d She neglect\u00aded to men\u00adtion that the \u201cawak\u00aden\u00ading\u201d was caf\u00adfeinat\u00aded by the deploy\u00adment of an addi\u00adtion\u00adal 30,000<\/a> U.S. troops \u2014 Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bush\u2019s so-called surge, which she hearti\u00adly opposed. The coun\u00adterin\u00adsur\u00adgency won the back\u00ading of Sun\u00adni tribes\u00admen and result\u00aded in an Iraq that Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma in Decem\u00adber 2011 described<\/a> as \u201c<\/span><\/em>sov\u00ader\u00adeign, sta\u00adble and self-reliant\u201d with \u201ca rep\u00adre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adtive gov\u00adern\u00adment that was elect\u00aded by its people.\u201d<\/p>\n She blamed for\u00admer Iraqi pres\u00adi\u00addent Nouri al-Mali\u00adki (the choice of two Amer\u00adi\u00adcan pres\u00adi\u00addents \u2013 Bush and Oba\u00adma \u2013 to lead Iraq) for squan\u00adder\u00ading these gains, leav\u00ading the tribes\u00admen \u201cbetrayed and for\u00adgot\u00adten.\u201d But it was Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s deci\u00adsion<\/a> to pull all U.S. troops out of Iraq that con\u00advinced Sun\u00adnis it was Wash\u00ading\u00adton, as much as Bagh\u00addad, that had \u201cbetrayed and for\u00adgot\u00adten\u201d them.<\/p>\n Hillary\u2019s Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n Her revi\u00adsion\u00adism aside, Clin\u00adton offered this bit of gob\u00adbledy\u00adgook as her plan to defeat the Islam\u00adic State:<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>We have to fit a lot of pieces togeth\u00ader, bring along a lot of part\u00adners, move on mul\u00adti\u00adple fronts at once. But if we press for\u00adward on both sides of the bor\u00adder, in the air and on the ground, as well as diplo\u00admat\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly, I do believe we can crush ISIS<\/span>\u2019s enclave of terror.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n It was a mud\u00addle-head\u00aded pre\u00adscrip\u00adtion and one not dis\u00adsim\u00adi\u00adlar from what many Repub\u00adli\u00adcans offer. No-fly zones, arm\u00ading fac\u00adtions, urg\u00ading Euro\u00adpeans and Arabs to pile into the con\u00adflict and a laun\u00addry list of tough-sound\u00ading mil\u00adi\u00adtary clich\u00e9s have become sta\u00adples of the President\u2019s crit\u00adics on both sides of the aisle.<\/p>\n No-Fly Zones Won\u2019t Fly<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n The prob\u00adlems with estab\u00adlish\u00ading a no-fly zone became evi\u00addent last week when Turkey downed a Russ\u00adian bomber they say crossed into its air\u00adspace. Had Rus\u00adsia retal\u00adi\u00adat\u00aded mil\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adly, Turkey, a NATO<\/span> mem\u00adber, could have invoked Arti\u00adcle 5<\/a> of its char\u00adter, which pro\u00advides that an attack on one NATO<\/span> coun\u00adtry is an attack on all. Thus could war with the Islam\u00adic State risk war with Russia.<\/p>\n Clin\u00adton said she hopes \u201cto work with the Rus\u00adsians to be able to\u201d impose a no-fly zone over north\u00adern Syr\u00adia. Good luck with that. The no-fly zone\u2019s pur\u00adpose is to facil\u00adi\u00adtate Assad\u2019s over\u00adthrow by shield\u00ading rebels from Russ\u00adian and Syr\u00adi\u00adan gov\u00adern\u00adment airstrikes. The suc\u00adcess of a no-fly zone thus would require either that Putin ground his own planes or that Amer\u00adi\u00adcan fight\u00ader jets shoot them out of the sky. Nei\u00adther seems likely.<\/p>\n Out\u00adsourc\u00ading<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n While the U.S. and its allies would be respon\u00adsi\u00adble for pros\u00ade\u00adcut\u00ading the air war, Clin\u00adton would out\u00adsource ground com\u00adbat to var\u00adi\u00adous fac\u00adtions. She lists Kurds, Sun\u00adni tribes\u00admen and the Iraqi army among those who would do our dirty work.<\/p>\n The prob\u00adlem with prox\u00adies is that they do not pur\u00adsue our agen\u00adda, but their own. When the Kurds or Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia cap\u00adture ter\u00adri\u00adto\u00adry from IS<\/span>, they often per\u00adse\u00adcute the Sun\u00adni Mus\u00adlims Clin\u00adton hopes to woo. The Wall Street Jour\u00adnal report\u00aded<\/a> recent\u00adly that Kurds have razed or par\u00adtial\u00adly demol\u00adished 50 pre\u00addom\u00adi\u00adnant\u00adly Sun\u00adni Arab vil\u00adlages they have cap\u00adtured since July. In Iraq and Syr\u00adia, the Jour\u00adnal reports, \u201cSun\u00adni Arabs are either flee\u00ading, being forced out or are blocked from return\u00ading to areas seized by Kurds or Iran-backed groups.\u201d<\/p>\n Con\u00adtain\u00ading the Islam\u00adic State means facil\u00adi\u00adtat\u00ading land (and oil) grabs by Kurds and Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtias at the expense of Sun\u00adni tribes\u00admen. Thus does the suc\u00adcess of our prox\u00adies incite the very griev\u00adances among Sun\u00adnis that nour\u00adished al Qae\u00adda and birthed the Islam\u00adic State.<\/p>\n Made In The U.S.A.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n Clin\u00adton would nev\u00ader\u00adthe\u00adless rely on these prox\u00adies and thinks we should do more to arm them. She seems not to have noticed that the region already is awash in Amer\u00adi\u00adcan weapons and that vir\u00adtu\u00adal\u00adly every fac\u00adtion has them. The Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post pub\u00adlished<\/a> a video of a Free Syr\u00adi\u00adan Army sol\u00addier shout\u00ading \u201cAllahu Akbar!\u201d after using his U.S.-made TOW<\/span> mis\u00adsile to destroy a U.S.-manufactured Humvee.<\/p>\n It is not clear who owned the Humvee. The Post spec\u00adu\u00adlat\u00aded that it may have belonged to \u201cU.S.-supplied Iraqi mili\u00adtias who have since entered Syr\u00adia to prop up Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bashar al-Assad.\u201d It also sug\u00adgest\u00aded that it may have belonged to IS<\/span>, which boasts an impres\u00adsive arse\u00adnal<\/a> of Amer\u00adi\u00adcan weapons.<\/p>\n The hunger for weapons is, of course, insa\u00adtiable and we can con\u00adtin\u00adue to feed it, so long as we don\u2019t much care who gets their hands on them or how they are used. But it is hard to see how this advances our aims. We can\u2019t con\u00adtrol the prox\u00adies we\u2019re arm\u00ading, much less the arms we\u2019re supplying.<\/p>\n What If ISIS<\/span> Were Destroyed?<\/strong><\/p>\n Yet Clin\u00adton and most GOP<\/span> pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adtial aspi\u00adrants would have us believe that this mix of no-fly zones, increased bomb\u00ading, and arm\u00ading rival fac\u00adtions is the for\u00admu\u00adla for destroy\u00ading the Islam\u00adic State. Even if it were, it is fair to ask what would become of the region if the IS<\/span> were removed. What sort of last\u00ading arrange\u00adment<\/a> would pre\u00advail among war\u00adring Shi\u00adite mili\u00adti\u00ada\u00admen and Sun\u00adni tribes\u00admen; al Nus\u00adra, al Qae\u00adda and its oth\u00ader off\u00adshoots; the Free Syr\u00adi\u00adan Army, Kurds, Turk\u00admen, Hezbol\u00adlah, Islam\u00adic Front, Yazidis; and Assad loy\u00adal\u00adists among the Alaw\u00adites and Christians?<\/p>\n That is a ques\u00adtion Clin\u00adton and her Repub\u00adli\u00adcan rivals pre\u00adfer to avoid. It was, how\u00adev\u00ader, put to Clin\u00adton toward the end of her appearance.<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>If the only way you can put togeth\u00ader a mod\u00ader\u00adate Syr\u00adi\u00adan force is by hav\u00ading the Unit\u00aded States cajole, bribe, arm and train it,\u201d the ques\u00adtion\u00ader began, \u201cwe are then look\u00ading for this force to defeat ISIS<\/span>, then defeat Assad, then defeat al-Nus\u00adra, then defeat oth\u00ader Al Qae\u00adda affil\u00adi\u00adates, keep at bay the Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtias and Hezbol\u00adlah, take con\u00adtrol of Dam\u00adas\u00adcus and estab\u00adlish a plu\u00adral\u00adis\u00adtic democ\u00adra\u00adcy in Syr\u00adia. Isn\u2019t that a tall order?\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n Clin\u00adton ven\u00adtured a ram\u00adbling answer, sound\u00ading like an unpre\u00adpared stu\u00addent try\u00ading to bluff her way through an exam.<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>We have to pri\u00ador\u00adi\u00adtize\u201d the fight against ISIS<\/span>, she said, \u201cand then we need to fig\u00adure out how we put togeth\u00ader a polit\u00adi\u00adcal out\u00adcome \u2026 so that the sep\u00ada\u00adrate com\u00admu\u00adni\u00adties with\u00adin Syr\u00adia will be able to re-cre\u00adate a Syr\u00adi\u00adan state, even though it prob\u00ada\u00adbly is unlike\u00adly it will be con\u00adtrolled by the Alaw\u00adites from Dam\u00adas\u00adcus the same way it was before the civ\u00adil war started.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n In oth\u00ader words, Clin\u00adton has no idea of how the dead\u00adly con\u00adflict might be con\u00adstruc\u00adtive\u00adly resolved, even if her ques\u00adtion\u00adable strat\u00ade\u00adgy to destroy IS<\/span> actu\u00adal\u00adly worked. Nor do her prospec\u00adtive Repub\u00adli\u00adcan opponents.<\/p>\n We are now enter\u00ading our fif\u00adteenth year of war in the region. The only strat\u00ade\u00adgy against jihadists that can fair\u00adly be called suc\u00adcess\u00adful was the surge \u2013 a mas\u00adsive coun\u00adterin\u00adsur\u00adgency that paci\u00adfied Iraq and pro\u00advid\u00aded polit\u00adi\u00adcal sta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty, but that brought thou\u00adsands of Amer\u00adi\u00adcan casu\u00adal\u00adties<\/a> and required open-end\u00aded occupation.<\/p>\n If we want to achieve a mil\u00adi\u00adtary objec\u00adtive as com\u00adplex and dif\u00adfi\u00adcult as destroy\u00ading IS<\/span> \u2013 with\u00adout leav\u00ading the region worse off than before \u2014 we can\u2019t sim\u00adply ship arms, drop bombs and hope for the best. We have to be will\u00ading to put Amer\u00adi\u00adcan lives on the line.<\/p>\n Vot\u00aders will not sup\u00adport anoth\u00ader mas\u00adsive deploy\u00adment of U.S. ground troops to the region or tol\u00ader\u00adate the ensu\u00ading loss\u00ades. Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adtial con\u00adtenders from both par\u00adties know that. So they pro\u00adfess to have plans to sub\u00addue the region\u2019s mani\u00ada\u00adcal jihadists with\u00adout risk\u00ading Amer\u00adi\u00adcan casualties.<\/p>\n If only it were that easy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" When pressed by a nor\u00admal\u00adly docile gag\u00adgle of White House reporters recent\u00adly over whether he would con\u00adsid\u00ader chang\u00ading his failed Syr\u00adia strat\u00ade\u00adgy, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma revert\u00aded to form: he accused Repub\u00adli\u00adcans of reli\u00adgious big\u00adotry and cru\u00adel\u00adty to chil\u00addren. His polit\u00adi\u00adcal oppo\u00adnents, \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading
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