![\"Vladimir](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/10\/credit-daily-mail-and-getty-images.jpg\")
<\/a>Vladimir Putin delights in out\u00adwit\u00adting Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma at every turn. But is the Pres\u00adi\u00addent right when he says that Putin\u2019s Syr\u00adia adven\u00adture is \u201cnot a smart, strate\u00adgic move?\u201d [Cred\u00adit: Dai\u00adly Mail and Get\u00adty Images]<\/p><\/div>The U.S. and Rus\u00adsia blun\u00addered to the brink of nuclear war in 1983 accord\u00ading to recent\u00adly declas\u00adsi\u00adfied doc\u00adu\u00adments<\/a>, a reminder that as frayed as rela\u00adtions between Pres\u00adi\u00addent Barack Oba\u00adma and Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Vladimir Putin have become, things could be far worse.\n The NATO<\/span> exer\u00adcise that threat\u00adened mutu\u00adal\u00adly assured destruc\u00adtion began with a fic\u00adtion\u00adal sce\u00adnario that today does\u00adn\u2019t seem all that fic\u00adtion\u00adal \u2014 Rus\u00adsia deliv\u00aders arms to Syr\u00adia and Iran<\/a>.<\/p>\n Lead\u00aders of sev\u00ader\u00adal Gulf States, threat\u00adened by Russ\u00adian inter\u00adven\u00adtion, seek U.S. mil\u00adi\u00adtary involve\u00adment, accord\u00ading to the sce\u00adnario. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent responds by dis\u00adpatch\u00ading mil\u00adi\u00adtary advis\u00aders to the region and increas\u00ading our naval pres\u00adence there.<\/p>\n As the NATO<\/span> war game played out, ris\u00ading ten\u00adsions even\u00adtu\u00adal\u00adly pro\u00advoke Russ\u00adian mil\u00adi\u00adtary aggres\u00adsion against its neigh\u00adbors. The U.S. Pres\u00adi\u00addent, in response to a request from his mil\u00adi\u00adtary com\u00adman\u00adders, autho\u00adrizes the \u201clim\u00adit\u00aded use of nuclear weapons against pre-select\u00aded fixed targets.\u201d<\/p>\n Russ\u00adian mil\u00adi\u00adtary lead\u00aders who observed the NATO<\/span> exer\u00adcise con\u00adclud\u00aded that the U.S. was plot\u00adting a real nuclear strike against the Sovi\u00adet Union. Amer\u00adi\u00adcan intel\u00adli\u00adgence offi\u00adcials had no idea at the time how bad\u00adly the Sovi\u00adets were mis\u00adread\u00ading our inten\u00adtions or how close the world was draw\u00ading toward nuclear con\u00adfla\u00adgra\u00adtion. War was avert\u00aded. But just bare\u00adly, if the new\u00adly declas\u00adsi\u00adfied intel\u00adli\u00adgence assess\u00adments are to be believed.<\/p>\n Today, Rus\u00adsia is doing far more than mere\u00adly sup\u00adply\u00ading arms to Syr\u00adia and Iran, leav\u00ading Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma frus\u00adtrat\u00aded and flum\u00admoxed, but not fum\u00adbling for the nuclear launch codes. Instead, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent watch\u00ades help\u00adless\u00adly as Vladimir Putin asserts him\u00adself in a region where the U.S. once held sway, vague\u00adly warn\u00ading that Russ\u00adian inter\u00adven\u00adtion is \u201cnot a smart, strate\u00adgic move<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n He may be right.<\/p>\n At least that\u2019s a rea\u00adson\u00adable infer\u00adence from a recent paper by Pol\u00adish econ\u00ado\u00admist Marek Dabrows\u00adki<\/a>. In the paper, writ\u00adten for a Euro\u00adpean eco\u00adnom\u00adic think tank, Dabrows\u00adki argues that Putin\u2019s klep\u00adto\u00adcrat\u00adic regime has sys\u00adtem\u00adat\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly pushed the Russ\u00adian econ\u00ado\u00admy toward ruin. If not reversed, Putin\u2019s poli\u00adcies could jeop\u00adar\u00addize his for\u00adeign ambi\u00adtions and imper\u00adil his rule.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s back\u00aders dis\u00admiss such talk. For them, Russia\u2019s eco\u00adnom\u00adic woes are tem\u00adpo\u00adrary and large\u00adly attrib\u00adut\u00adable to sag\u00adging oil prices. The coun\u00adtry is resur\u00adgent despite eco\u00adnom\u00adic set\u00adbacks, advanc\u00ading its inter\u00adests in East\u00adern Europe and the Mid\u00addle East in defi\u00adance of the U.S. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma seems no match for his Russ\u00adian coun\u00adter\u00adpart, whose strate\u00adgic cal\u00adcu\u00adla\u00adtions seem always to give him the upper hand.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s inter\u00adven\u00adtion in Syr\u00adia is the most recent exam\u00adple. Rus\u00adsia is in Syr\u00adia at the invi\u00adta\u00adtion of its elect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment and with the autho\u00adriza\u00adtion of the Duma. It is coor\u00addi\u00adnat\u00ading its mil\u00adi\u00adtary oper\u00ada\u00adtions with the Syr\u00adi\u00adan and Iran\u00adian armies. It has a clear\u00adly defined nation\u00adal inter\u00adest \u2013 to pro\u00adtect its lone Mediter\u00adranean mil\u00adi\u00adtary base \u2013 and a clear objec\u00adtive: to pre\u00advent the sort of regime change in Syr\u00adia that pro\u00adduced chaos in Libya and years of bloody war\u00adfare in Iraq.<\/p>\n Obama\u2019s Mid\u00addle East\u00adern War of Choice, by con\u00adtrast, is a mud\u00addle of good inten\u00adtions, bel\u00adli\u00adcose threats and con\u00adflict\u00ading pro\u00adnounce\u00adments. His mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion lacks pur\u00adpose and direc\u00adtion. Avoid\u00ading Amer\u00adi\u00adcan casu\u00adal\u00adties appears to be its chief mil\u00adi\u00adtary goal. Con\u00adgress has not autho\u00adrized it. Syr\u00adia has not request\u00aded it. We are accom\u00adplish\u00ading lit\u00adtle, but doing enough to earn a seat at a nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading table with an assort\u00adment of the region\u2019s despots, ter\u00adror\u00adists and goons, recent\u00adly enlarged to include the aya\u00adtol\u00adlahs<\/a>. Putin, mean\u00adwhile, is not sat\u00adis\u00adfied with mere\u00adly being at the nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading table. He wants to sit at its head.<\/p>\n Clar\u00adi\u00adty of pur\u00adpose, how\u00adev\u00ader, is no guar\u00adan\u00adtee of suc\u00adcess, par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly when mil\u00adi\u00adtary capa\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty rests on a shaky eco\u00adnom\u00adic plat\u00adform. Dabrows\u00adki recites the grim facts. Russia\u2019s GDP<\/span> has been shrink\u00ading since short\u00adly after its seizure of Crimea. Its econ\u00ado\u00admy is small\u00ader today in real terms than it was in 2011. The IMF<\/span> projects that it will con\u00adtract fur\u00adther this year. The ruble has been deval\u00adued, infla\u00adtion has been in the 14\u201317 per\u00adcent range through\u00adout most of 2015, for\u00adeign exchange reserves are declin\u00ading, and the gov\u00adern\u00adment is burn\u00ading through reserve funds it main\u00adtains as a cush\u00adion against fis\u00adcal shock.<\/p>\n Dabrows\u00adki believes that the roots of this reces\u00adsion run deep\u00ader than the plunge in glob\u00adal com\u00admod\u00adi\u00adty prices and the impo\u00adsi\u00adtion of sanc\u00adtions, although both are cer\u00adtain\u00adly con\u00adtribut\u00ading fac\u00adtors. He traces those roots to Putin\u2019s \u201cpolit\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly moti\u00advat\u00aded crack\u00addown on the largest Russ\u00adian pri\u00advate com\u00adpa\u00adny, Yukos.\u201d Putin had the com\u00adpa\u00adny\u2019s pres\u00adi\u00addent and at the time Rus\u00adsi\u00ada\u2019s rich\u00adest man, Mikhail Khodor\u00adkovsky, arrest\u00aded in 2003, ulti\u00admate\u00adly engi\u00adneer\u00ading the takeover of his com\u00adpa\u00adny by state-owned Ros\u00adneft. That trans\u00adac\u00adtion shrunk the pri\u00advate sector\u2019s share of GDP<\/span> from 70 to 65 per\u00adcent. The gov\u00adern\u00adment now holds a con\u00adtrol\u00adling inter\u00adest in twelve of Russia\u2019s largest joint-stock com\u00adpa\u00adnies and its \u201cuni\u00adtary enter\u00adpris\u00ades\u201d (state-run enti\u00adties) extend to such diverse fields as weapons sales, nuclear ener\u00adgy and alco\u00adhol production.<\/p>\n Putting a politi\u00adcian \u2013 and a rather author\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan one, at that \u2013 his cronies, and a bribe-hun\u00adgry bureau\u00adcra\u00adcy in con\u00adtrol of so much of the means of pro\u00adduc\u00adtion has had pre\u00addictably dis\u00admal results. Nat\u00adur\u00adal gas pro\u00adduc\u00adtion under monop\u00ado\u00adlist Gazprom, Dabrows\u00adki notes, has stag\u00adnat\u00aded since its for\u00adma\u00adtion in the ear\u00adly 1990s, as Putin has bent its busi\u00adness mod\u00adel toward his for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy objec\u00adtives and away from its bot\u00adtom line.<\/p>\n The Her\u00aditage Foun\u00adda\u00adtion Index of Eco\u00adnom\u00adic Free\u00addom ranks Rus\u00adsia 143rd<\/sup> of 178<\/a> coun\u00adtries. The World Bank and the World Eco\u00adnom\u00adic Forum place Rus\u00adsia more in the mid\u00addle of the pack, but note that the coun\u00adtry lags in prop\u00ader\u00adty rights and reli\u00adable police ser\u00advices and has too many \u201cirreg\u00adu\u00adlar pay\u00adments and bribes,\u201d cre\u00adat\u00ading a cli\u00admate that stymies busi\u00adness for\u00adma\u00adtion and growth.<\/p>\n In the cir\u00adcum\u00adstances, it is no won\u00adder that Rus\u00adsia is a net cap\u00adi\u00adtal exporter. Dabrows\u00adki notes that large enter\u00adpris\u00ades keep their prof\u00adits and assets abroad and fund cur\u00adrent activ\u00adi\u00adty with for\u00adeign bor\u00adrow\u00ading, a prac\u00adtice that sanc\u00adtions have to some extent curtailed.<\/p>\n Dabrows\u00adki argues that a recov\u00adery in oil prices alone won\u2019t return Rus\u00adsia to the path of growth. It also needs diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtion, some\u00adthing that Rus\u00adsia, Dabrowsky says, can more eas\u00adi\u00adly accom\u00adplish than can oth\u00ader com\u00admod\u00adi\u00adty-depen\u00addent economies. Diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtion, how\u00adev\u00ader, requires polit\u00adi\u00adcal change. It won\u2019t occur with\u00adout \u201cimprov\u00ading the busi\u00adness and invest\u00adment cli\u00admate and stop\u00adping the author\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan drift in domes\u00adtic pol\u00adi\u00adtics and geopo\u00adlit\u00adi\u00adcal con\u00adfronta\u00adtion with the West and Russia\u2019s neighbors.\u201d<\/p>\n Putin is unlike\u00adly to heed Dabrowski\u2019s advice to break up oli\u00adgop\u00ado\u00adlies he helped cre\u00adate and that under\u00adgird his pow\u00ader. Lib\u00ader\u00adal\u00adiz\u00ading the Russ\u00adian econ\u00ado\u00admy car\u00adries polit\u00adi\u00adcal risks that aren\u2019t worth tak\u00ading. Why should Putin change when his approval rat\u00adings stand at 89 per\u00adcent<\/a>,<\/span> no doubt in part because of his appetite for geopo\u00adlit\u00adi\u00adcal confrontation?<\/p>\n Then again, pub\u00adlic approval can be ephemer\u00adal. George H.W. Bush achieved an 89 per\u00adcent<\/a> approval rat\u00ading in Feb\u00adru\u00adary 1991; more than ten years lat\u00ader, his son reg\u00adis\u00adtered 90 per\u00adcent<\/a>. Both saw their pop\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adi\u00adty plum\u00admet \u2013 the first because the econ\u00ado\u00admy soured, the sec\u00adond because of the unfore\u00adseen con\u00adse\u00adquences of war. With Rus\u00adsi\u00ada\u2019s econ\u00ado\u00admy in reces\u00adsion and its troops in Syr\u00adia and Ukraine, Putin risks both.<\/p>\n His bold\u00adness and risk-tak\u00ading behav\u00adior have led to a Russ\u00adian resur\u00adgence in world affairs. But in the longer run, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma may have it right: Putin\u2019s Syr\u00adi\u00adan adven\u00adture may turn out not to be so smart.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The U.S. and Rus\u00adsia blun\u00addered to the brink of nuclear war in 1983 accord\u00ading to recent\u00adly declas\u00adsi\u00adfied doc\u00adu\u00adments, a reminder that as frayed as rela\u00adtions between Pres\u00adi\u00addent Barack Oba\u00adma and Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Vladimir Putin have become, things could be far worse. \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading