![\"U.S.](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/11\/credit-telegraph.jpg\")
<\/a>U.S. airstrikes have slowed the progress of Islam\u00adic State fight\u00aders, but the war may drag on for years. Why that\u2019s good for us. [Cred\u00adit: Telegraph]<\/p><\/div>The Pres\u00adi\u00addent was asked a sim\u00adple ques\u00adtion<\/a> a few weeks ago: are we win\u00adning the war against the Islam\u00adic State?\n He wouldn\u2019t answer the ques\u00adtion direct\u00adly, so I will. We\u2019re win\u00adning in Iraq and Syr\u00adia by not win\u00adning. The net effect of our actions has so far been to keep extrem\u00adist Mus\u00adlims of var\u00adi\u00adous eth\u00adnic\u00adi\u00adties and sec\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan pas\u00adsions engaged in war against \u2026 each oth\u00ader. And that may be the best pos\u00adsi\u00adble out\u00adcome in the circumstances.<\/p>\n This is not the President\u2019s aim. Try as he might, he strug\u00adgles to give a con\u00advinc\u00ading account of how he will man\u00adage to destroy the Islam\u00adic State<\/a> (IS<\/span>) or to pro\u00advide a clear assess\u00adment of whether he\u2019s suc\u00adceed\u00ading. His ram\u00adbling answer to the ques\u00adtion of whether we are win\u00adning was reveal\u00ading. He droned on (no pun intend\u00aded) for near\u00adly four and one-half min\u00adutes<\/a>,<\/span> inform\u00ading us that things were \u201cmessy,\u201d \u201chard,\u201d \u201ccom\u00adpli\u00adcat\u00aded\u201d and \u201cdif\u00adfi\u00adcult\u201d (twice, actually).<\/p>\n Though he repeat\u00aded\u00adly used the word \u201cfocus,\u201d his appears fit the diag\u00adno\u00adsis of ADD<\/span> \u2013 hyper\u00adac\u00adtive, attempt\u00ading to do sev\u00ader\u00adal things at once, bounc\u00ading from one activ\u00adi\u00adty to the next. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent wants to \u201csolid\u00adi\u00adfy\u201d Iraq\u2019s gov\u00adern\u00adment and its army, \u201chave a strong inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal coali\u00adtion,\u201d \u201csup\u00adport the Kurds in Kobani,\u201d \u201cpush ISIL<\/span> back from some of the ter\u00adri\u00adto\u00adries they had tak\u00aden,\u201d and \u201cget a mod\u00ader\u00adate oppo\u00adsi\u00adtion in Syr\u00adia \u2026 a core group that we can work with, that we can have con\u00adfi\u00addence in.\u201d<\/p>\n Even our focus is unfo\u00adcused: \u201cour focus in Syr\u00adia is not to solve the entire Syr\u00adi\u00adan sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion.\u201d Huh?<\/p>\n So are we win\u00adning, Mr. Pres\u00adi\u00addent? \u201cI think it\u2019s too ear\u00adly to say.\u201d<\/p>\n But as the Pres\u00adi\u00addent tries to fig\u00adure out whether we are win\u00adning and what win\u00adning might mean, oth\u00aders are putting our airstrikes and mil\u00adi\u00adtary largesse to use in pur\u00adsuit of their own agendas.<\/p>\n Start with the Kurds. The Kur\u00addis\u00adtan Work\u00aders Par\u00adty (PKK<\/span>) is one of five ter\u00adror\u00adist groups<\/a> who serve as our cobel\u00adliger\u00adents in the war against the Islam\u00adic State. The PKK<\/span> doesn\u2019t espe\u00adcial\u00adly care for the U.S. and like\u00adly resents its 2012 des\u00adig\u00adna\u00adtion by our State Depart\u00adment as the \u201c<\/span>dead\u00adliest\u201d ter\u00adror\u00adist orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtion in Europe<\/a>. But, hey, this is Asia, so the fact that they, along with Pesh Mer\u00adga, are ben\u00ade\u00adfit\u00ading from our mil\u00adi\u00adtary engage\u00adment is just fine by us. They were among the \u201cKurds in Kobani\u201d whose suc\u00adcess against the IS<\/span> the Pres\u00adi\u00addent laud\u00aded. They are cur\u00adrent\u00adly engaged in bat\u00adtles against the IS<\/span> for con\u00adtrol of oil\u00adfields in Syr\u00adia<\/a> This is all part of the PKK\u2019s plan for an inde\u00adpen\u00addent Kur\u00addis\u00adtan that would com\u00adprise areas cur\u00adrent\u00adly with\u00adin the bound\u00adaries of Syr\u00adia, Turkey and Iraq. Tech\u00adni\u00adcal\u00adly, we oppose that, but in real\u00adi\u00adty, we are abet\u00adting it.<\/p>\n Then there is the Hezbol\u00adlah Brigade, an orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtion direct\u00adly linked to Iran\u2019s Qods force<\/a>,<\/span> which took part in the suc\u00adcess\u00adful U.S.-supported defense of Amer\u00adli from the IS<\/span>. The Brigade is among the sketchy Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia units that have been pros\u00adper\u00ading on the ground with our help and support.<\/p>\n Which has made things a bit rough for the Sun\u00adni tribes\u00admen. They are threat\u00adened by the IS<\/span><\/a> and the Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia, resent\u00adful of us for hav\u00ading aban\u00addoned them to the ten\u00adder\u00admer\u00adcies of the Mali\u00adki regime and its Iran\u00adian patrons, and mis\u00adtrust\u00adful of the Shi\u00adite-dom\u00adi\u00adnat\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment in Bagh\u00addad. We are try\u00ading to put them at ease by offer\u00ading truck\u00adloads of AK<\/span>-47s, body armor and hel\u00admets, mor\u00adtar rounds and grenades. The Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion jus\u00adti\u00adfies its request<\/a> for arm\u00ading the tribes\u00admen direct\u00adly rather than through the Iraqi gov\u00adern\u00adment by gen\u00adtly explain\u00ading that the Iraqi army \u201cis not par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly wel\u00adcome in Anbar and oth\u00ader major\u00adi\u00adty Sun\u00adni areas because of past excess\u00ades and sec\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan activ\u00adi\u00adties, and a poor com\u00adbat per\u00adfor\u00admance.\u201d So we are arm\u00ading the tribes\u00admen and trust\u00ading that they will train the weapons on the IS<\/span>, not on our friends in the Iraqi gov\u00adern\u00adment forces, whom they despise.<\/p>\n And speak\u00ading of the Iraqi gov\u00adern\u00adment, we appear to have made a hash of things there as well. We con\u00addi\u00adtioned esca\u00adlat\u00ading mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion<\/a> against the IS<\/span> on their dump\u00ading Nouri al-Mali\u00adki, whose Dawa par\u00adty fin\u00adished first in last April\u2019s elec\u00adtion. More than three months after Mali\u00adki relin\u00adquished pow\u00ader, the gov\u00adern\u00adment remains inef\u00adfec\u00adtu\u00adal and cor\u00adrupt. Many of the weapons that we\u2019ve sup\u00adplied Bagh\u00addad, the New York Times<\/em><\/a> recent\u00adly report\u00aded, have been sold by mil\u00adi\u00adtary com\u00adman\u00adders on the black mar\u00adket. Some have found their way into the hands of the IS<\/span>. This graft is hob\u00adbling our attempt to revive the Iraqi army and imped\u00ading the gov\u00adern\u00admen\u00adt\u2019s efforts to win the con\u00adfi\u00addence of frac\u00adtious constituencies.<\/p>\n In sum, we are direct\u00adly or indi\u00adrect\u00adly arm\u00ading every side in a metasta\u00adt\u00adic eth\u00adnic and sec\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan war and hop\u00ading it all ends \u201cin even\u00adtu\u00adal polit\u00adi\u00adcal nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtions that are prob\u00ada\u00adbly some ways off in the future,\u201d as the Pres\u00adi\u00addent<\/a> has put it.<\/p>\n Nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtion, how\u00adev\u00ader remote the pos\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty and what\u00adev\u00ader the out\u00adcome, is the President\u2019s idea of suc\u00adcess. So long as he can imag\u00adine some peo\u00adple sit\u00adting around some table some\u00adday, he is com\u00adfort\u00adable drop\u00adping bombs on one fac\u00adtion while arm\u00ading oth\u00aders, and pre\u00adtend\u00ading not to notice that those weapons aren\u2019t being used to achieve our fuzzy objec\u00adtives but the clear aims of those who wield them. We are sup\u00adply\u00ading the ingre\u00addi\u00adents for a long and chaot\u00adic war.<\/p>\n And yet, in an inad\u00adver\u00adtent sort of way, those ingre\u00addi\u00adents might pro\u00adduce just the right recipe. Islam\u00adic jihadism pos\u00ades an exis\u00adten\u00adtial threat to the West as fas\u00adcism and com\u00admu\u00adnism did dur\u00ading the last cen\u00adtu\u00adry. The for\u00admer was destroyed by the blood\u00adi\u00adest war in world his\u00adto\u00adry; the lat\u00adter by a cold war that last\u00aded near\u00adly half a cen\u00adtu\u00adry and was marked by proxy wars and assas\u00adsi\u00adna\u00adtions, fueled by enor\u00admous mil\u00adi\u00adtary expen\u00addi\u00adtures, and con\u00adduct\u00aded under the threat of mutu\u00adal extinction.<\/p>\n We don\u2019t have the stom\u00adach to com\u00admit to efforts on that scale against rad\u00adi\u00adcal Islamism. That is a major rea\u00adson why a series of Pres\u00adi\u00addents has failed to devise a polit\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly palat\u00adable strat\u00ade\u00adgy to defeat it. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Clin\u00adton did not respond effec\u00adtive\u00adly to an esca\u00adlat\u00ading series of al Qae\u00adda attacks, cul\u00admi\u00adnat\u00ading in the atroc\u00adi\u00adties of 9\/11 ear\u00adly in the term of his suc\u00adces\u00adsor. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bush respond\u00aded with mil\u00adi\u00adtary engage\u00adment and nation-build\u00ading, hop\u00ading that Mus\u00adlims would pre\u00adfer self-gov\u00ader\u00adnance and democ\u00adra\u00adcy to rule by loopy theocrats, thugs and despots. The cost in blood and trea\u00adsure of such inter\u00adven\u00adtion led to its rejec\u00adtion by the Amer\u00adi\u00adcan pub\u00adlic. The hope of Mus\u00adlim democ\u00adra\u00adcy soured when Arab Spring turned to jihadist win\u00adter. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma promised to be the anti-Bush, end\u00ading the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and retreat\u00ading from the Mid\u00addle East. Instead he report\u00aded\u00adly will leave more troops in Afghanistan<\/a> than he\u2019d pre\u00advi\u00adous\u00adly promised, may resume con\u00adtro\u00adver\u00adsial \u201cnight raids<\/a>\u201d in our seem\u00ading\u00adly end\u00adless war with the Tal\u00adiban, and has launched the Third Iraq War.<\/p>\n His con\u00adduct of that war, so half-baked and half-heart\u00aded, makes the U.S. not an occu\u00adpi\u00ader but a provo\u00adca\u00adteur<\/em>,<\/span> egging var\u00adi\u00adous groups on to fight against fac\u00adtions that we regard as more mani\u00ada\u00adcal and bru\u00adtal than they. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent, wit\u00adting\u00adly or oth\u00ader\u00adwise, is sail\u00ading along the course urged by Cana\u00addi\u00adan com\u00admen\u00adta\u00adtor Con\u00adrad Black<\/a>,<\/span> who sug\u00adgests that we leave Iraq and Syr\u00adia \u201cto the coun\u00adtries and fac\u00adtions, sects and tribes in situ<\/em> to sort it out, even if it is a sun-drenched ver\u00adsion of the Thir\u00adty Years War.\u201d<\/p>\n Giv\u00aden the dimin\u00adished capa\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adties of our lead\u00aders and the revul\u00adsion that most Amer\u00adi\u00adcans bear toward the prospect of anoth\u00ader ground war, our options for con\u00adfronting Islamist extrem\u00adism are few. Keep\u00ading all vari\u00adety of fanat\u00adics in a per\u00adpet\u00adu\u00adal state of war against one anoth\u00ader may not be opti\u00admal, but it may be our best option in the circumstances.<\/p>\n So long as they are fight\u00ading each oth\u00ader, per\u00adhaps we\u2019re win\u00adning after all.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The Pres\u00adi\u00addent was asked a sim\u00adple ques\u00adtion a few weeks ago: are we win\u00adning the war against the Islam\u00adic State? He wouldn\u2019t answer the ques\u00adtion direct\u00adly, so I will. We\u2019re win\u00adning in Iraq and Syr\u00adia by not win\u00adning. The net effect \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading