![\"A](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/09\/credit-the-guardian.jpg\")
<\/a>A Libyan rebel for whom we pro\u00advid\u00aded air sup\u00adport cel\u00ade\u00adbrates in 2011. Today those same rebels have reduced the coun\u00adtry to bloody chaos. Will our bomb\u00ading in Iraq and Syr\u00adia pro\u00adduce a bet\u00adter result? [Cred\u00adit: The Guardian]<\/p><\/div>The black flag of jihad flies over much of the coun\u00adtry. City after city has fall\u00aden to islamist insur\u00adgents. Mil\u00adi\u00adtants burn hous\u00ades and attack eth\u00adnic minori\u00adties<\/a> and jour\u00adnal\u00adists. The pop\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly elect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment, pow\u00ader\u00adless to stop the onslaught, appeals for out\u00adside help. Fear\u00ading that the coun\u00adtry is fast becom\u00ading a \u201cter\u00adror\u00adist hub<\/a>,\u201d a West\u00adern gov\u00adern\u00adment this week sought to \u201cmobi\u00adlize the inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal com\u00admu\u00adni\u00adty\u201d to launch a war against the jihadists.\n Iraq? No. Libya, a coun\u00adtry where we con\u00adduct\u00aded airstrikes in 2011 in sup\u00adport of an odd assort\u00adment of ground forces that includ\u00aded more than its share of mis\u00adfits and fanatics.<\/p>\n If that strat\u00ade\u00adgy pro\u00adduced such a mis\u00ader\u00adable result in Libya, can we rea\u00adson\u00adably expect it to work in Iraq and Syria?<\/p>\n The after\u00admath of Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s Libya air cam\u00adpaign is night\u00admar\u00adish. Less than a year after the country\u2019s \u201clib\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion,\u201d a fac\u00adtion for whom we\u2019d pro\u00advid\u00aded air sup\u00adport attacked our diplo\u00admat\u00adic facil\u00adi\u00adty in Beng\u00adhazi, killing four Amer\u00adi\u00adcans, includ\u00ading our ambas\u00adsador. Things went down\u00adhill from there, with the US<\/span> and oth\u00ader nations evac\u00adu\u00adat\u00ading their diplo\u00admat\u00adic per\u00adson\u00adnel<\/a> ear\u00adli\u00ader this sum\u00admer and Libya\u2019s par\u00adlia\u00adment (or what\u2019s left of it) tak\u00ading refuge aboard a Greek fer\u00adry<\/a> off the country\u2019s coast. France, mean\u00adwhile, is try\u00ading to assem\u00adble a coali\u00adtion of the will\u00ading to return to war in Libya. Its defense min\u00adis\u00adter<\/a> this week \u201csound[ed] the alarm about the seri\u00adous\u00adness of the sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion in Libya,\u201d which he termed \u201cthe gate\u00adway both to Europe and the Sahara.\u201d<\/p>\n In lay\u00ading out his strat\u00ade\u00adgy for destroy\u00ading the Islam\u00adic State (IS<\/span>), the Pres\u00adi\u00addent under\u00adstand\u00adably neglect\u00aded to men\u00adtion Libya. The com\u00adpar\u00adisons are uncom\u00adfort\u00adable. The strat\u00ade\u00adgy for both con\u00adsists in con\u00adduct\u00ading an air war while out\u00adsourc\u00ading ground com\u00adbat to some rather dis\u00adrep\u00adutable groups. Vice Pres\u00adi\u00addent Biden boast\u00aded<\/a> in 2011 that this was \u201cthe pre\u00adscrip\u00adtion for how to deal with the world.\u201d Hardly.<\/p>\n In Iraq, that pre\u00adscrip\u00adtion involves rely\u00ading on Kurds, Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia, Iraq\u2019s reg\u00adu\u00adlar army and Iran\u00adian sol\u00addiers, though Tehran, in Putin-like fash\u00adion, denies<\/a> that it has dis\u00adpatched troops across the bor\u00adder. With our sup\u00adport, those groups fend\u00aded off an IS<\/span> attack on the city of Amer\u00adli in east\u00adern Iraq, arguably our great\u00adest mil\u00adi\u00adtary suc\u00adcess so far. Our Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia allies on the ground cel\u00ade\u00adbrat\u00aded the vic\u00adto\u00adry by burn\u00ading the hous\u00ades of the city\u2019s Sun\u00adni res\u00adi\u00addents and behead\u00ading a 21-year-old<\/a> whom they accused of col\u00adlab\u00ado\u00adrat\u00ading with the IS<\/span>. \u201cThere is no way back for them,\u201d a Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia com\u00adman\u00adder said of Amerli\u2019s Sun\u00adni res\u00adi\u00addents. \u201cWe will raze their homes to the ground.\u201d<\/p>\n The Shi\u00adite militia\u2019s ground move\u00adments in Amer\u00adli were report\u00aded\u00adly mas\u00adter\u00admind\u00aded by Qassem Suleimani<\/a>,<\/span> the head of the Iran\u00adian Rev\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtion\u00adary Guards Corps\u2019 Qods Force. Suleimani\u2019s pres\u00adence in Amer\u00adli was announced on a web\u00adsite oper\u00adat\u00aded by Hezbol\u00adlah<\/a>. Such are the ear\u00adly fruits of our air campaign.<\/p>\n But if our offen\u00adsives in Iraq empow\u00ader some sin\u00adis\u00adter char\u00adac\u00adters, one can only imag\u00adine what will hap\u00adpen when the pyrotech\u00adnics extend into Syr\u00adia, a bloody four-way con\u00adflict involv\u00ading the forces of Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bashar al-Assad, al-Qae\u00adda, the IS<\/span>, and the group that we\u2019ve decid\u00aded are the good guys, the Free Syr\u00adi\u00adan Army. Even one of Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s for\u00admer mil\u00adi\u00adtary advis\u00aders won\u00adders how this is all sup\u00adposed to work. \u201cFig\u00adur\u00ading out where we can strike [the IS<\/span>] so that it weak\u00adens them and empow\u00aders a more mod\u00ader\u00adate Sun\u00adni group instead of the gov\u00adern\u00adment \u2014 you have to think that one through,\u201d for\u00admer Under\u00adsec\u00adre\u00adtary of Defense Michele Flournoy<\/a> recent\u00adly told the Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post. \u201cI\u2019m not sure we know yet how to pull that off.\u201d<\/p>\n Nor is it clear, exact\u00adly, why we plan to use our mil\u00adi\u00adtary pow\u00ader to advance the for\u00adtunes of the Free Syr\u00adi\u00adan Army (FSA<\/span>). Just last month, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma dis\u00admissed as \u201cfan\u00adta\u00adsy<\/a>\u201d the idea that US<\/span> assis\u00adtance could help the FSA<\/span>\u2019s \u201cfarm\u00aders and den\u00adtists and folks\u201d pre\u00advail. Now they are our ground forces in Syr\u00adia. He will use our air pow\u00ader to their ben\u00ade\u00adfit and has asked Con\u00adgress to give them half a bil\u00adlion dol\u00adlars in mil\u00adi\u00adtary aid.<\/p>\n Per\u00adhaps that com\u00adbi\u00adna\u00adtion of bombs and mon\u00adey will trans\u00adform the FSA<\/span> from sim\u00adple mem\u00adbers of the bour\u00adgeosie into the strong men of Syr\u00adia. But are we cer\u00adtain that would serve our inter\u00adests? The fam\u00adi\u00adly of Steven Sot\u00adloff, behead\u00aded ear\u00adli\u00ader this month by the IS<\/span>, says that the Free Syr\u00adi\u00adan Army accept\u00aded mon\u00adey from the ter\u00adror\u00adist group in exchange for facil\u00adi\u00adtat\u00ading Sotloff\u2019s cap\u00adture<\/a>. Asked about the alle\u00adga\u00adtion, the President\u2019s spokesman issued a lawyer\u00adly non-denial. \u201cBased on the infor\u00adma\u00adtion that has been pro\u00advid\u00aded to me, I don\u2019t believe that is accu\u00adrate,\u201d White House Press Sec\u00adre\u00adtary Josh Earnest said of the Sot\u00adloff family\u2019s alle\u00adga\u00adtion. The fam\u00adi\u00adly\u2019s charge will become more cred\u00adi\u00adble if reports that the FSA<\/span> has reached a non-aggres\u00adsion pact<\/a> with the IS<\/span> prove accurate.<\/p>\n Thus begins the Third Iraq War, amid pop\u00adu\u00adlar sup\u00adport fueled by out\u00adrage over the gris\u00adly exe\u00adcu\u00adtions of Sot\u00adloff and fel\u00adlow jour\u00adnal\u00adist James Foley. The President\u2019s speech, deliv\u00adered on the eve of the 9\/11 anniver\u00adsary, well suit\u00aded the nation\u2019s mood. It had the res\u00ado\u00adnance and tone of the speech\u00ades of for\u00admer Pres\u00adi\u00addent George W. Bush. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent unchar\u00adac\u00adter\u00adis\u00adti\u00adcal\u00adly used the word \u201cter\u00adror\u00adism\u201d or its cog\u00adnates 23 times in a speech<\/a> of few\u00ader than 2,000 words. He vowed to destroy the IS<\/span> with\u00adout send\u00ading a sin\u00adgle Amer\u00adi\u00adcan into ground combat.<\/p>\n How\u00adev\u00ader long this war lasts and how\u00adev\u00ader it is con\u00adduct\u00aded, this much is almost cer\u00adtain: it will not achieve its objec\u00adtive of destroy\u00ading<\/a> the Islam\u00adic State. It may degrade it, espe\u00adcial\u00adly since the capa\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adties of the IS<\/span> may well be vast\u00adly over\u00adstat\u00aded<\/a>. But we haven\u2019t real\u00adly learned yet how to destroy jihadist orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtions. The Tal\u00adiban and al Qae\u00adda<\/a> have sur\u00advived years of war\u00adfare. Nor has Israel found a way to elim\u00adi\u00adnate Hezbol\u00adlah or Hamas<\/a>.<\/p>\n The President\u2019s plan to rely on bombs, time and dodgy prox\u00adies on the ground is more aspi\u00adra\u00adtion than strat\u00ade\u00adgy. His options were stark and unat\u00adtrac\u00adtive: engage in a mas\u00adsive coun\u00adterin\u00adsur\u00adgency<\/a> like the one Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bush launched in 2007 (some\u00adthing that nei\u00adther Con\u00adgress nor the pub\u00adlic would tol\u00ader\u00adate) or stand aside as the Ira\u00adni\u00adans, the Iraqi army, Shi\u00adite and Sun\u00adni fac\u00adtions, Assad, the Kurds, the IS<\/span> and the region\u2019s oth\u00ader assort\u00aded loonies set\u00adtled mat\u00adters in their own way.<\/p>\n Revers\u00ading his long\u00adstand\u00ading pol\u00adi\u00adcy of leav\u00ading Iraq to the Iraqis, he chose the least painful way to avoid doing noth\u00ading. His actions give the pub\u00adlic what it wants: retal\u00adi\u00ada\u00adtion for the bar\u00adbar\u00adic mur\u00adders of two Amer\u00adi\u00adcan reporters cou\u00adpled with a promise that US<\/span> casu\u00adal\u00adties will be few. Such inter\u00adven\u00adtion, like our bomb\u00ading of Libya and our inva\u00adsion of Iraq, will have unfore\u00adseen results. Iran, the Shi\u00adite mili\u00adtia and the Kurds are its ear\u00adly ben\u00ade\u00adfi\u00adcia\u00adries. IS<\/span> no doubt believes that pro\u00advok\u00ading US<\/span> attacks will attract jihadists from around the world to its cause. For us, the bomb\u00ading feels like a safe and low-cost response to unspeak\u00adable acts of barbarism.<\/p>\n There\u2019s some\u00adthing for every\u00adone in the short run, but it is hard to escape the sense that this reprise of our Libya strat\u00ade\u00adgy won\u2019t end well.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" The black flag of jihad flies over much of the coun\u00adtry. City after city has fall\u00aden to islamist insur\u00adgents. Mil\u00adi\u00adtants burn hous\u00ades and attack eth\u00adnic minori\u00adties and jour\u00adnal\u00adists. The pop\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly elect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment, pow\u00ader\u00adless to stop the onslaught, appeals for \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading