![\"It](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/05\/credit-nwa-online.jpg\")
<\/a>It typ\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly costs $100 to fill a 12-gal\u00adlon tank in Italy today. The coun\u00adtry imports much of its oil from Rus\u00adsia. Which is why its gov\u00adern\u00adment is reluc\u00adtant to sign on to Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma\u2019s anti-Putin cam\u00adpaign. [Cred\u00adit: NWA<\/span> online]<\/p><\/div>A gal\u00adlon of unlead\u00aded gas costs near\u00adly $9 here in Todi, a tran\u00adquil Ital\u00adian town whose roots stretch back mil\u00adlen\u00adnia to pre-Etr\u00aduscan times. Diesel is a bit cheap\u00ader at $8.50 per gal\u00adlon, mean\u00ading that it costs $100 to fill a 12-gal\u00adlon tank.\n Which may help explain why Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s cru\u00adsade to impose sys\u00adtem\u00adat\u00adic eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions on Rus\u00adsia has so far fiz\u00adzled. Euro\u00adpeans are unwill\u00ading to pay the costs that dis\u00adrup\u00adtions in trade with Rus\u00adsia would impose on them.<\/p>\n One can hard\u00adly blame them.<\/p>\n Italy imports near\u00adly 80 per\u00adcent<\/a> of the ener\u00adgy it uses, accord\u00ading to the World Bank. That includes an esti\u00admat\u00aded 2 mil\u00adlion bar\u00adrels of oil a day<\/a> in 2010, most\u00adly from Libya, Azer\u00adbai\u00adjan, Sau\u00addi Ara\u00adbia and Rus\u00adsia. The \u201cArab Spring\u201d and US<\/span> mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion have made Libya a more dan\u00adger\u00adous place (see Beng\u00adhazi) and con\u00adse\u00adquent\u00adly a less reli\u00adable trad\u00ading part\u00adner, forc\u00ading greater depen\u00addence on Russ\u00adian oil.<\/p>\n Rus\u00adsia also sup\u00adplies a con\u00adsid\u00ader\u00adable por\u00adtion of the 2.4 tril\u00adlion cubic feet<\/a> of nat\u00adur\u00adal gas that Italy is esti\u00admat\u00aded to have import\u00aded in 2012. Its oth\u00ader major sources of nat\u00adur\u00adal gas are Alge\u00adria and Libya, both of which have grown less depend\u00adable in recent years due to domes\u00adtic unrest. In part because of polit\u00adi\u00adcal insta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty in north\u00adern Africa, the aver\u00adage price paid by Ital\u00adian con\u00adsumers for nat\u00adur\u00adal gas rose by 34 per\u00adcent<\/a> between 2008 and 2012, com\u00adpared with gen\u00ader\u00adal infla\u00adtion over that four-year peri\u00adod of just 9 percent.<\/p>\n Still, nat\u00adur\u00adal gas has remained rel\u00ada\u00adtive\u00adly more afford\u00adable than elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty. The aver\u00adage Ital\u00adian paid about 32 cents<\/a> (using cur\u00adrent euro-dol\u00adlar exchange rates) per kilo\u00adwatt hour for elec\u00adtric\u00adi\u00adty in the sec\u00adond half of 2012, more than 2\u20131\/2 times what Amer\u00adi\u00adcans pay<\/a> on average.<\/p>\n These high ener\u00adgy costs are bit\u00ading Ital\u00adian con\u00adsumers dur\u00ading try\u00ading eco\u00adnom\u00adic times. The Ital\u00adian econ\u00ado\u00admy is small\u00ader today than it was in 2007<\/a>. It has shrunk in 4 of the last 6 years. Last year it con\u00adtract\u00aded by 1.9 per\u00adcent. The \u201cgood news\u201d is that the IMF<\/span> believes that it will grow this year \u2013 by 0.6 to 1.1 per\u00adcent<\/a> \u2014 chang\u00ading direc\u00adtion while leav\u00ading liv\u00ading stan\u00addards depressed.<\/p>\n Eco\u00adnom\u00adic war with Rus\u00adsia would turn even that mod\u00adest improve\u00adment to a neg\u00ada\u00adtive and fur\u00adther unset\u00adtle an already-scram\u00adbled domes\u00adtic polit\u00adi\u00adcal sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion. Italy is on its third unelect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment since Berlus\u00adconi was deposed<\/a> in Novem\u00adber 2011. The cur\u00adrent prime min\u00adis\u00adter, 39-year-old Flo\u00adrence may\u00ador Mat\u00adteo Ren\u00adzi, is push\u00ading a frac\u00adtious par\u00adlia\u00adment to approve his plan for 7 bil\u00adlion euro in tax cuts<\/a>,<\/span> aimed at let\u00adting low earn\u00aders keep an addi\u00adtion\u00adal 80 euro ($111) per month in wages. The plan has come under fire both from Berlusconi\u2019s par\u00adty and from par\u00adlia\u00admen\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adans aligned with come\u00addi\u00adan Beppe Gril\u00adlo, who has called the off\u00adsets asso\u00adci\u00adat\u00aded with the tax cut \u201cnoth\u00ading but hot air<\/a>.\u201d If Renzi\u2019s plan fails, he too may be forced to move on.<\/p>\n In view of its eco\u00adnom\u00adic con\u00adtrac\u00adtion, polit\u00adi\u00adcal uncer\u00adtain\u00adty and falling liv\u00ading stan\u00addards, it is easy to see why Italy is reluc\u00adtant to take sweep\u00ading sanc\u00adtions against one of its biggest ener\u00adgy sup\u00adpli\u00aders. A sim\u00adi\u00adlar sto\u00adry is repeat\u00aded, in var\u00adi\u00adous ver\u00adsions, through\u00adout many Euro\u00adpean cap\u00adi\u00adtals, sug\u00adgest\u00ading that Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s cam\u00adpaign is unlike\u00adly to succeed.<\/p>\n That\u2019s not to say that Russia\u2019s econ\u00ado\u00admy isn\u2019t vul\u00adner\u00ada\u00adble. While it may not be the \u201c<\/span>gas sta\u00adtion mas\u00adquerad\u00ading as a coun\u00adtry\u201d<\/a> that John McCain (R\u2011AZ<\/span>) makes it out to be, its econ\u00ado\u00admy depends to a great extent on the sale of ener\u00adgy and oth\u00ader nat\u00adur\u00adal resources. Twen\u00adty-one of its twen\u00adty-two largest com\u00adpa\u00adnies<\/a> are in oil, gas, min\u00ading or iron and steel pro\u00adduc\u00adtion Like Venezuela, it has suf\u00adfered from the world\u00adwide decline in oil prices.<\/p>\n It is also a high\u00adly cor\u00adrupt econ\u00ado\u00admy, with Vladimir Putin and a small group of oli\u00adgarchs con\u00adtrol\u00adling the enor\u00admous wealth gen\u00ader\u00adat\u00aded by the largest com\u00adpa\u00adnies. Putin\u2019s per\u00adson\u00adal net worth remains a mys\u00adtery. It has been esti\u00admat\u00aded to exceed $40 bil\u00adlion<\/a>. An econ\u00ado\u00admy that lacks diver\u00adsi\u00adfi\u00adca\u00adtion and that con\u00adcen\u00adtrates wealth in the hands of a polit\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly con\u00adnect\u00aded elite is sus\u00adcep\u00adti\u00adble to shocks, a vul\u00adner\u00ada\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty that Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma would very much like to exploit.<\/p>\n His prob\u00adlem is that Europe, too, is vul\u00adner\u00ada\u00adble and that it would suf\u00adfer if Rus\u00adsia were harmed. Trade, after all, isn\u2019t a form of char\u00adi\u00adty. It is mutu\u00adal\u00adly ben\u00ade\u00adfi\u00adcial. Restrict\u00ading it dis\u00adad\u00advan\u00adtages both par\u00adties. Europe may be bet\u00adter able to sus\u00adtain eco\u00adnom\u00adic dam\u00adage than Rus\u00adsia, but Euro\u00adpeans who already are pay\u00ading high prices to dri\u00adve their cars and heat their homes are no more inclined to sac\u00adri\u00adfice than Amer\u00adi\u00adcans would be. Nor would our politi\u00adcians, includ\u00ading Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma, ask us to under\u00adtake such sac\u00adri\u00adfices, giv\u00aden the polit\u00adi\u00adcal haz\u00adards of such an appeal.<\/p>\n As the eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions cam\u00adpaign stum\u00adbles on, the sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion in East\u00adern Ukraine con\u00adtin\u00adues to dete\u00adri\u00ado\u00adrate. The mul\u00adti\u00adlat\u00ader\u00adal agree\u00adment<\/a> to return gov\u00adern\u00adment build\u00adings to Kiev\u2019s con\u00adtrol, con\u00adclud\u00aded just two weeks ago<\/a>,<\/span> appears dead. The Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment has now all but con\u00adced\u00aded<\/a> cer\u00adtain east\u00adern Ukraine cities (not to men\u00adtion Crimea) to Russ\u00adian-inspired mili\u00adtia. Pro-Russ\u00adian forces have tight\u00adened their con\u00adtrol over sev\u00ader\u00adal of these cities and there are reports<\/a> that they downed two heli\u00adcopters flown by the Kiev mil\u00adi\u00adtary in the pre-dawn hours this morn\u00ading. It is begin\u00adning to appear that what\u00adev\u00ader the results of the sched\u00aduled May 25 elec\u00adtions, the new gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev will be unable to con\u00adtrol sub\u00adstan\u00adtial parts of the coun\u00adtry, includ\u00ading cities where key indus\u00adtri\u00adal assets are sited.<\/p>\n That is lam\u00aden\u00adta\u00adble. Unlike in Crimea, there does not appear to be sub\u00adstan\u00adtial sen\u00adti\u00adment in east\u00adern Ukraine to secede from the coun\u00adtry, much less to unite with Rus\u00adsia. Those, at least, are the find\u00adings of a poll con\u00adduct\u00aded last month in east\u00adern Ukraine by the Kviv Inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal Insti\u00adtute of Soci\u00adol\u00ado\u00adgy<\/a>. Polls can be sus\u00adpect and I am rely\u00ading on a Google trans\u00adla\u00adtion of the results, since I do not read Ukrain\u00adian. But with those caveats, here are a few of its findings:<\/p>\n If these poll results accu\u00adrate\u00adly reflect the views of Russ\u00adian speak\u00aders in east\u00adern Ukraine, then they would appear to be more sen\u00adsi\u00adble and real\u00adis\u00adtic than those of Putin, Oba\u00adma, or the lead\u00aders of west\u00adern Europe. East\u00adern Ukraini\u00adans reject the West\u2019s con\u00adtention that the gov\u00adern\u00adment estab\u00adlished last Feb\u00adru\u00adary to mol\u00adli\u00adfy pro\u00adtes\u00adtors is legit\u00adi\u00admate, but they don\u2019t embrace Putin\u2019s designs on east\u00adern Ukraine or believe that he is look\u00ading out for their well-being.<\/p>\n They are right on all counts. A rea\u00adson\u00adable solu\u00adtion would have been to con\u00adsti\u00adtute a tem\u00adpo\u00adrary gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev that was broad\u00adly rep\u00adre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adtive of all par\u00adties in that frac\u00adtious coun\u00adtry. That might have been pos\u00adsi\u00adble in the days and weeks fol\u00adlow\u00ading Yanukovych\u2019s fall in Feb\u00adru\u00adary. Instead, we incit\u00aded Rus\u00adsia by back\u00ading a coup in its neigh\u00adbor, then proved unable to pre\u00advent Putin from turn\u00ading Ukraine into a divid\u00aded, ungovern\u00adable mess. Hav\u00ading assured Ukraine\u2019s long-term insta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty, our for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy experts now devote their ener\u00adgies to per\u00adma\u00adnent\u00adly poi\u00adson\u00ading our rela\u00adtions with Rus\u00adsia. They seek to make Putin a pari\u00adah, to deny him a seat at the glob\u00adal lunch table.<\/p>\n Per\u00adhaps the Ital\u00adians and oth\u00ader Euro\u00adpeans will some\u00adday throw in with our eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions cam\u00adpaign. Maybe they\u2019ll be will\u00ading to pay $12 or $15 for a gal\u00adlon of gaso\u00adline and shell out exor\u00adbi\u00adtant sums to heat and light their homes.<\/p>\n That, in effect, is what Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma is ask\u00ading them to do. Their reluc\u00adtance is understandable.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A gal\u00adlon of unlead\u00aded gas costs near\u00adly $9 here in Todi, a tran\u00adquil Ital\u00adian town whose roots stretch back mil\u00adlen\u00adnia to pre-Etr\u00adus\u00adcan times. Diesel is a bit cheap\u00ader at $8.50 per gal\u00adlon, mean\u00ading that it costs $100 to fill a \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading \n