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<\/a>Ukrain\u00adian army per\u00adson\u00adnel dis\u00adpatched to reclaim a city from pro-Russ\u00adian forces report\u00aded\u00adly defect\u00aded to the pro-Russ\u00adian side. Last night\u2019s ten\u00adta\u00adtive agree\u00adment will put an inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtion \u2014 includ\u00ading Russ\u00adian, Amer\u00adi\u00adcan and Euro\u00adpean mon\u00adi\u00adtors \u2014 at the lead in return\u00ading the cities to Kiev\u2019s con\u00adtrol. [Cred\u00adit: AFP<\/span>\/Getty]<\/p><\/div>Ear\u00adli\u00ader this week, four armored troop car\u00adri\u00aders head\u00aded toward the east\u00adern Ukraine city of Slo\u00advian\u00adsk, which had been occu\u00adpied by pro-Russ\u00adian forces. The para\u00adtroop\u00aders from Ukraine\u2019s 25th<\/sup> brigade were dis\u00adpatched by the gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev to spear\u00adhead its \u201canti-ter\u00adror\u00adist\u201d offen\u00adsive, designed to reclaim the city for the cen\u00adtral gov\u00adern\u00adment. But after talk\u00ading with the demon\u00adstra\u00adtors who met them out\u00adside the city, the troops report\u00aded\u00adly defect\u00aded to the pro-Russ\u00adian side, replaced the Ukraine flag with a Russ\u00adian one<\/a>, and drove their vehi\u00adcle into Lenin Square.\n Short\u00adly after Rus\u00adsia invad\u00aded Crimea, Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State John Ker\u00adry<\/a> said, \u201cThe peo\u00adple of Ukraine will not sit still for this. They know how to fight.\u201d<\/p>\n Evi\u00addent\u00adly not.<\/p>\n Which may be why Kiev, along with the US<\/span> and EU<\/span>, was more than hap\u00adpy to cut a ten\u00adta\u00adtive deal<\/a> last night that gives Rus\u00adsia pret\u00adty much every\u00adthing it want\u00aded in exchange for get\u00adting its gov\u00adern\u00adment build\u00adings back. The agree\u00adment stip\u00adu\u00adlates that pro-Russ\u00adian toughs who relin\u00adquish con\u00adtrol of facil\u00adi\u00adties in 10 east\u00adern Ukraine cities will be grant\u00aded amnesty. For its part, Moscow made no com\u00admit\u00adment to remove its troops from Ukraine\u2019s bor\u00adder and it won a process for mov\u00ading toward con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion\u00adal reforms sim\u00adi\u00adlar to what was agreed to, then scrapped by the new gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev, on Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21. In addi\u00adtion, US<\/span> and EU<\/span> lead\u00aders have said that they will hold off on addi\u00adtion\u00adal eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions against Rus\u00adsia, pend\u00ading the return of facil\u00adi\u00adties to Kiev\u2019s control.<\/p>\n Despite last mon\u00adth\u2019s out\u00adcry, the agree\u00adment makes no men\u00adtion of Crimea. The West appears to have capit\u00adu\u00adlat\u00aded on this point, which is what ini\u00adtial\u00adly prompt\u00aded the impo\u00adsi\u00adtion of sanc\u00adtions and which occa\u00adsioned Ker\u00adry\u2019s boast that Ukraine would not \u201csit still\u201d for Rus\u00adsi\u00ada\u2019s action.<\/p>\n The agree\u00adment is ten\u00adta\u00adtive. An Orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtion for Secu\u00adri\u00adty and Coop\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion in Europe (<\/span>OSCE<\/span>) Spe\u00adcial Mon\u00adi\u00adtor\u00ading Mis\u00adsion, which will include the par\u00adtic\u00adi\u00adpa\u00adtion of Rus\u00adsia, the EU<\/span> and US<\/span>, will \u201cplay a lead\u00ading role\u201d in see\u00ading to it that the build\u00adings are returned, a good move giv\u00aden the inca\u00adpac\u00adi\u00adty of the Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment to accom\u00adplish this on its own. Should that order\u00adly trans\u00adfer not occur in the com\u00ading days, the agree\u00adment could unravel.<\/p>\n If it holds up, it will mark a sig\u00adnif\u00adi\u00adcant vic\u00adto\u00adry for Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Vladimir Putin. By plac\u00ading 40,000 troops near the Ukraine bor\u00adder and inspir\u00ading pro-Russ\u00adian hooli\u00adgans to occu\u00adpy a hand\u00adful of gov\u00adern\u00adment facil\u00adi\u00adties, he stirred pan\u00adic in Kiev and in West\u00adern cap\u00adi\u00adtals. Russ\u00adian seizure of east\u00adern Ukraine would have been a blow to Amer\u00adi\u00adcan and West\u00adern Euro\u00adpean pres\u00adtige, as well as to Kiev and its mori\u00adbund econ\u00ado\u00admy. The eco\u00adnom\u00adic out\u00adput of Ukraine\u2019s east\u00adern oblasts far exceeds<\/a> that of oblasts in the west. The per capi\u00adta GDP<\/span> of the anti-Russ\u00adian city of Lviv<\/a>,<\/span> for exam\u00adple, ranks below that of Nige\u00adria and Sudan and just ahead of Chad and Kyr\u00adgyzs\u00adtan. Shorn of some of its most impor\u00adtant indus\u00adtri\u00adal assets and on bad terms with its Russ\u00adian neigh\u00adbor, Ukraine would have found itself in very bad shape indeed.<\/p>\n Per\u00adhaps Putin nev\u00ader had any inten\u00adtion of invad\u00ading east\u00adern Ukraine. Per\u00adhaps he just want\u00aded to assure that Rus\u00adsia would enter yesterday\u2019s round of nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtions (unlike those that con\u00adclud\u00aded in Feb\u00adru\u00adary) hold\u00ading all the cards. If so, it worked. Key to the agree\u00adment is a com\u00admit\u00adment to a process for writ\u00ading a new con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion, in which pro-Russ\u00adian cit\u00adi\u00adzens will participate:<\/p>\n The announced con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion\u00adal process will be inclu\u00adsive, trans\u00adpar\u00adent and account\u00adable. It will include the imme\u00addi\u00adate estab\u00adlish\u00adment of a broad nation\u00adal dia\u00adlogue, with out\u00adreach to all of Ukraine\u2019s regions and polit\u00adi\u00adcal con\u00adstituen\u00adcies, and allow for the con\u00adsid\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion of pub\u00adlic com\u00adments and pro\u00adposed amendments.<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n Pro-Russ\u00adian fac\u00adtions will insist that the new con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion devolve more pow\u00ader to the regions at the expense of the cen\u00adtral gov\u00adern\u00adment. Fail\u00adure to do so will rekin\u00addle ten\u00adsions that Kiev and the West will no doubt be eager to avoid. A con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion to Putin\u2019s lik\u00ading is the most prob\u00ada\u00adble result of this process, although it is by no means guar\u00adan\u00adteed. This much is: if Putin does\u00adn\u2019t get what he wants, there will be fur\u00adther unpleasantness.<\/p>\n Putin is con\u00adtrol\u00adling events in part because he knows what he wants and is will\u00ading to use force to get it. He is a gar\u00adden-vari\u00adety tyrant, no dif\u00adfer\u00adent from a thou\u00adsand oth\u00aders through\u00adout his\u00adto\u00adry. His inter\u00adest is in his own pow\u00ader \u2013 seiz\u00ading it, grasp\u00ading it, enlarg\u00ading it. He has, for all intents and pur\u00adpos\u00ades, ruled Rus\u00adsia for 14 years; he intends to rule it until he departs this earth. And he will do what\u00adev\u00ader it takes to ful\u00adfill that ambi\u00adtion, includ\u00ading repres\u00adsion at home and aggres\u00adsion abroad.<\/p>\n West\u00adern Europe\u2019s divi\u00adsions and eco\u00adnom\u00adic malaise, cou\u00adpled with a weak Amer\u00adi\u00adcan Pres\u00adi\u00addent, togeth\u00ader cre\u00adat\u00aded an oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty for Putin to assert him\u00adself in Ukraine. The West hand\u00aded Putin a cred\u00adi\u00adble griev\u00adance with its lam\u00aden\u00adta\u00adble deci\u00adsion to scut\u00adtle a mul\u00adti\u00adlat\u00ader\u00adal accord<\/a> for con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion\u00adal and elec\u00adtoral reform in favor of a dubi\u00adous gov\u00adern\u00adment insti\u00adtut\u00aded to appease demon\u00adstra\u00adtors. Rus\u00adsia had played by the rules of West\u00adern diplo\u00adma\u00adcy and suf\u00adfered humil\u00adi\u00ada\u00adtion when the West reneged on the agree\u00adment, all dur\u00ading a Win\u00adter Olympics that were a cel\u00ade\u00adbra\u00adtion of Russ\u00adian pride.<\/p>\n The US<\/span> and EU<\/span> some\u00adhow failed to fore\u00adsee that Putin would react to these events and they were com\u00adplete\u00adly unpre\u00adpared when he did. The West has been on the defen\u00adsive ever since, vague\u00adly threat\u00aden\u00ading force and explic\u00adit\u00adly say\u00ading that it would com\u00adpel Rus\u00adsia to pay a \u201ccost\u201d for its mis\u00adbe\u00adhav\u00adior. When all that the US<\/span> and EU<\/span> could pro\u00adduce was a ris\u00adi\u00adble list of indi\u00advid\u00adu\u00adals who would be denied visas and bank\u00ading priv\u00adi\u00adleges, Putin dou\u00adbled down on thug\u00adgery. Hav\u00ading pock\u00adet\u00aded Crimea, he began to make trou\u00adble in Ukraine\u2019s east\u00adern provinces.<\/p>\n Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma is at a great dis\u00adad\u00advan\u00adtage in tak\u00ading on Putin. Putin knows what he wants; the Pres\u00adi\u00addent just wants this all to go away. His great\u00adest dis\u00adabil\u00adi\u00adty is that, in the sixth year of his pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adcy, his for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy remains vague and detached from real\u00adi\u00adty. Not being George W. Bush is not a for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy, as Peg\u00adgy Noo\u00adnan<\/a> has not\u00aded. Yet that seems to best describe the Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adt\u2019s approach, along with a pref\u00ader\u00adence for catchy metaphors \u2014 piv\u00adots, resets, Arab Springs \u2014 over the for\u00admu\u00adla\u00adtion of clear objec\u00adtives. A metaphor also is not a for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy. Metaphors are catchy, mem\u00ado\u00adrable and entire\u00adly vac\u00adu\u00adous if not root\u00aded in a coher\u00adent and real\u00adis\u00adtic frame\u00adwork. They are of lit\u00adtle use among the cranks, klep\u00adto\u00adcrats, brutes, mega\u00adlo\u00adma\u00adni\u00adacs, despots and lunatics who pop\u00adu\u00adlate the \u201cinter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal com\u00admu\u00adni\u00adty.\u201d They sound per\u00adfect\u00adly rea\u00adson\u00adable until a Syr\u00adi\u00adan tyrant, an Egypt\u00adian Gen\u00ader\u00adal or some\u00adbody named Vlad tells us where we can stick our metaphor. Which is what just hap\u00adpened in Ukraine.<\/p>\n Wal\u00adter Rus\u00adsell Mead<\/a> has sum\u00adma\u00adrized the President\u2019s fol\u00adly as pivoting:<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>away from a Europe that didn\u2019t need us and a Mid\u00addle East that didn\u2019t want us into an Asia that both need\u00aded and want\u00aded our pres\u00adence. These days the White House is fac\u00ading a hard\u00ader but per\u00adhaps more durable truth: the Unit\u00aded States needs to piv\u00adot back toward the world.\u201d<\/span><\/p><\/blockquote>\n With near\u00adly three years still remain\u00ading in his term, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent has the oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty to make one more piv\u00adot. Per\u00adhaps the dread\u00adful episode in Ukraine will per\u00adsuade him to take it.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ear\u00adli\u00ader this week, four armored troop car\u00adri\u00aders head\u00aded toward the east\u00adern Ukraine city of Slo\u00advian\u00adsk, which had been occu\u00adpied by pro-Russ\u00adian forces. The para\u00adtroop\u00aders from Ukraine\u2019s 25th brigade were dis\u00adpatched by the gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev to spear\u00adhead its \u201canti-ter\u00adror\u00adist\u201d offen\u00adsive, \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading