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<\/a>Pro-Russ\u00adian Crimeans cel\u00ade\u00adbrate ref\u00ader\u00aden\u00addum results. Putin won this round of the Ukraine cri\u00adsis. How should the West pre\u00adpare for the next one? [Cred\u00adit: Chi\u00adna Daily]<\/p><\/div>Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma and his Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion have been pro\u00adclaim\u00ading for weeks that the Rus\u00adsians would suf\u00adfer if they didn\u2019t with\u00addraw from Crimea.\n
They haven\u2019t with\u00addrawn. They\u2019re not suf\u00adfer\u00ading. Now what?<\/p>\n
Vladimir Putin seems once again to have pre\u00advailed, annex\u00ading Crimea with\u00adout mil\u00adi\u00adtary or eco\u00adnom\u00adic reprisals of con\u00adse\u00adquence. Our government\u2019s veiled threats of mil\u00adi\u00adtary action and explic\u00adit warn\u00adings of deep eco\u00adnom\u00adic pain have thus far proven emp\u00adty, though both the US<\/span> and Europe are expect\u00aded to add to the list of Rus\u00adsians on whom it will impose trav\u00adel and finan\u00adcial restric\u00adtions. The cri\u00adsis may soon wind down, but we can expect anoth\u00ader in a few months when new elec\u00adtions are to be held and bills come due for a Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment on the edge of bank\u00adrupt\u00adcy. The Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion should han\u00addle this next cri\u00adsis differently.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n It should begin by review\u00ading what went wrong. Since the 1990s, the EU<\/span> and Rus\u00adsia have com\u00adpet\u00aded for the affec\u00adtions of debt-rid\u00adden Ukraine. Each promis\u00ades the coun\u00adtry mon\u00adey to ally with its side. Vot\u00aders have gone back and forth in the eth\u00adni\u00adcal\u00adly divid\u00aded nation, some\u00adtimes elect\u00ading pro-Russ\u00adian lead\u00aders, at oth\u00ader times politi\u00adcians who favor the West. The result\u00ading gov\u00adern\u00adments have almost invari\u00adably been cor\u00adrupt, unsta\u00adble and inef\u00adfec\u00adtive. The econ\u00ado\u00admy over the past 20 years has been among the worst in the region, as this chart from the Econ\u00ado\u00admist<\/a> illustrates.<\/p>\n Inex\u00adpi\u00adca\u00adbly, the ugli\u00ader and more unde\u00adsir\u00adable Ukraine grew, the more fer\u00advent the com\u00adpe\u00adti\u00adtion for its loy\u00adal\u00adties became. When the eth\u00adnic Ukrain\u00adian fac\u00adtion lost, it appealed to the Euro\u00adpeans for aid; when the Russ\u00adian fac\u00adtion lost, it ran to Moscow. Ukraine plumbed new depths dur\u00ading the 2004 pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adtial cam\u00adpaign when a pro-West\u00adern can\u00addi\u00addate was poi\u00adsoned by gov\u00adern\u00adment secu\u00adri\u00adty forces. They are sus\u00adpect\u00aded<\/a> of hav\u00ading obtained the poi\u00adson from Russ\u00adian agents.<\/p>\n Mean\u00adwhile, pan\u00adhan\u00addling for euros and rubles became the lead\u00ading eco\u00adnom\u00adic pro\u00adgram of a series of Ukraine gov\u00adern\u00adments. In 2010, the IMF<\/span> agreed to pro\u00advide Kiev with $15 bil\u00adlion in assis\u00adtance. But Ukraine\u2019s pro-Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent, Vik\u00adtor Yanukovich refused to com\u00adply with the loan\u2019s con\u00addi\u00adtions, which essen\u00adtial\u00adly required Ukraine to behave like respon\u00adsi\u00adble adults. The IMF<\/span> sus\u00adpend\u00aded assis\u00adtance<\/a> in 2012, and the Yanukovich gov\u00adern\u00adment looked to Rus\u00adsia for hand\u00adouts. But the Euro\u00adpeans weren\u2019t about to give up. So they spent most of 2013 nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading with Yanukovich on reviv\u00ading the $15 bil\u00adlion aid package.<\/p>\n Putin ulti\u00admate\u00adly per\u00adsuad\u00aded Yanukovich last Decem\u00adber to spurn the IMF<\/span> and instead to accept his offer<\/a> of $20 bil\u00adlion. That prompt\u00aded demon\u00adstra\u00adtions by pro-West\u00adern forces, which includ\u00aded neo-fas\u00adcists, call\u00ading for Yanukovich\u2019s depo\u00adsi\u00adtion. Ten\u00adsions reached a boil\u00ading point dur\u00ading last month\u2019s Sochi Olympics. With Putin try\u00ading to bur\u00adnish his image as the genial host of the games, demon\u00adstra\u00adtors seized the moment by seek\u00ading to top\u00adple his lack\u00adey Yanukovich.<\/p>\n Gov\u00adern\u00adment forces fired on the demon\u00adstra\u00adtors, killing scores of peo\u00adple<\/a>. (Rus\u00adsia blames the demon\u00adstra\u00adtors them\u00adselves for the atroc\u00adi\u00adties, argu\u00ading that they did it to pro\u00advoke West\u00adern inter\u00adven\u00adtion.) Then came the Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21 agree\u00adment<\/a> between the EU<\/span>, Rus\u00adsia, the Yanukovich gov\u00adern\u00adment and lead\u00aders of the demon\u00adstra\u00adtions. It pro\u00advid\u00aded for con\u00adsti\u00adtu\u00adtion\u00adal reforms, an inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal inves\u00adti\u00adga\u00adtion into the shoot\u00adings and new elec\u00adtions by year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n The Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21 agree\u00adment died on Feb\u00adru\u00adary 22. Par\u00adlia\u00adment, pres\u00adsured by the demon\u00adstra\u00adtors who detest\u00aded the agree\u00adment, deposed Yanukovich, who fled the coun\u00adtry. The West walked away<\/a> from the accord. Europe and the US<\/span> rec\u00adog\u00adnized the new gov\u00adern\u00adment, whose leader prompt\u00adly declared, \u201cthe Ukrain\u00adian econ\u00ado\u00admy is head\u00ading into the abyss and is in a pre-default state<\/a>.\u201d Trans\u00adla\u00adtion: send mon\u00adey now.<\/p>\n Once the Olympics con\u00adclud\u00aded, Putin respond\u00aded with an out\u00adrage of his own: order\u00ading Russ\u00adian troops to remove their insignia and seize Crimea, all the while deny\u00ading Russ\u00adian respon\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty. The results of the inva\u00adsion were rat\u00adi\u00adfied by a ques\u00adtion\u00adable ref\u00ader\u00aden\u00addum, in which 97 per\u00adcent<\/a> of Crimeans alleged\u00adly chose annex\u00ada\u00adtion by Russia.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s assume that Putin con\u00adtents him\u00adself with annex\u00ading Crimea and that eth\u00adnic vio\u00adlence<\/a>,<\/span> which both sides see as a way of advanc\u00ading their inter\u00adests by pro\u00advok\u00ading the inter\u00adven\u00adtion of sym\u00adpa\u00adthet\u00adic for\u00adeign pow\u00aders, does not get out of hand. That will keep things qui\u00adet in Ukraine for a cou\u00adple of months. That qui\u00adet will like\u00adly be dis\u00adrupt\u00aded when elec\u00adtions are held on May 25<\/a> or per\u00adhaps in late June when the gov\u00adern\u00adment has to roll over<\/a> a large chunk of debt.<\/p>\n Both are poten\u00adtial\u00adly de-sta\u00adbi\u00adliz\u00ading events. With Crimea no longer part of Ukraine, anti-Russ\u00adian can\u00addi\u00addates are like\u00adly to sweep the May elec\u00adtions. That means the new gov\u00adern\u00adment will almost cer\u00adtain\u00adly be hos\u00adtile to Moscow and that Russ\u00adian speak\u00aders will appeal for Putin\u2019s help. And although the IMF<\/span> is promis\u00ading Ukraine aid, the gov\u00adern\u00adment may be forced to restruc\u00adture its oblig\u00ada\u00adtions. In any event, the con\u00addi\u00adtions that attach to the aid will cause polit\u00adi\u00adcal prob\u00adlems<\/a> for the new\u00adly-elect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adment. A return to cri\u00adsis seems inevitable.<\/p>\n What should the US<\/span> do?<\/p>\n The con\u00adflict between East and West over Ukraine is not one of good guys vs. bad guys. Every\u00adone has behaved bad\u00adly: the West in dis\u00adown\u00ading the mul\u00adti\u00adlat\u00ader\u00adal agree\u00adment con\u00adclud\u00aded on Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21 and embrac\u00ading as legit\u00adi\u00admate a gov\u00adern\u00adment incit\u00aded by a street mob, Rus\u00adsia by respond\u00ading with a cow\u00adard\u00adly inva\u00adsion (that it con\u00adtin\u00adues, implau\u00adsi\u00adbly, to deny) and a sham plebiscite.<\/p>\n That is now in the past. Crimea is today part of Rus\u00adsia and what remains of Ukraine is pen\u00adni\u00adless and riv\u00aden by eth\u00adnic divi\u00adsion. The US<\/span> should encour\u00adage the EU<\/span> to use this peri\u00adod of qui\u00ades\u00adcence to nego\u00adti\u00adate with the Rus\u00adsians on a com\u00admon approach to the next Ukraine cri\u00adsis. Absent such agree\u00adment, Ukraine will remain volatile, prone to vio\u00adlence and depen\u00addent on the kind\u00adness of strangers.<\/p>\n It\u2019s time for Mam\u00adma Merkel and Papa Putin to tell the Ukraini\u00adans to move out of the house, get a job and make their own way.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma and his Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion have been pro\u00adclaim\u00ading for weeks that the Rus\u00adsians would suf\u00adfer if they didn\u2019t with\u00addraw from Crimea. They haven\u2019t with\u00addrawn. They\u2019re not suf\u00adfer\u00ading. Now what? Vladimir Putin seems once again to have pre\u00advailed, annex\u00ading Crimea with\u00adout \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading <\/a><\/p>\n\n