![\"Uniformed](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/Credit-business-insider.jpg\")
<\/a>Uni\u00adformed troops believed to be Russ\u00adian stand guard out\u00adside a Ukrain\u00adian mil\u00adi\u00adtary base in Crimea. Is there a peace\u00adful res\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtion to this cri\u00adsis? [Cred\u00adit: Busi\u00adness Insider]<\/p><\/div>Ukraine\u2019s inter\u00adim gov\u00adern\u00adment, whose part the Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion has tak\u00aden in the Crimea cri\u00adsis, includes a promi\u00adnent polit\u00adi\u00adcal leader <\/a>who has in the past urged his coun\u00adtry\u00admen to fight the \u201cMus\u00adcovite-Jew\u00adish mafia\u201d and called on his gov\u00adern\u00adment to halt the \u201ccrim\u00adi\u00adnal activ\u00adi\u00adties\u201d of \u201corga\u00adnized Jewry.\u201d\n The author of this calum\u00adny, Oleh Tyah\u00adny\u00adbok, is a leader of Ukraine\u2019s Svo\u00adbo\u00adda (\u201cfree\u00addom\u201d) par\u00adty, who in Decem\u00adber 2012 was named Per\u00adson of the Year by read\u00aders of the coun\u00adtry\u2019s lead\u00ading news mag\u00ada\u00adzine, Kor\u00adre\u00adspon\u00addent<\/em>.<\/p>\n Such are the com\u00adplex\u00adi\u00adties that lurk not far beneath the sur\u00adface in the ongo\u00ading cri\u00adsis over Russia\u2019s incur\u00adsion into Crimea.<\/p>\n Tyah\u00adny\u00adbok stands by his com\u00adments made in 2004 and 2005 when his par\u00adty was tiny and insignif\u00adi\u00adcant. \u201cAll I said then, I can also repeat now,\u201d he told the Kyiv Post in 2012. \u201cMore\u00adover, this speech is rel\u00ade\u00advant even today.\u201d<\/p>\n Svo\u00adbo\u00adda<\/a> is no longer tiny and insignif\u00adi\u00adcant. It is now the country\u2019s fourth largest par\u00adty and has fared well In the tran\u00adsi\u00adtion\u00adal gov\u00adern\u00adment that last month sup\u00adplant\u00aded Vik\u00adtor Yanukovich. Par\u00adty mem\u00adbers hold four senior posts<\/a>,<\/span> includ\u00ading Deputy Prime Min\u00adis\u00adter and Pros\u00ade\u00adcu\u00adtor General.<\/p>\n In our con\u00adtin\u00adued efforts to back the Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment, we under\u00adstand\u00adably avert our eyes from some of its worst ele\u00adments, along with the elec\u00adtoral irreg\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adi\u00adties that prompt\u00aded the Orga\u00adni\u00adza\u00adtion for Coop\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion and Secu\u00adri\u00adty in Europe (OCSE<\/span>) to char\u00adac\u00adter\u00adize the 2012 elec\u00adtions that pro\u00adduced the cur\u00adrent Par\u00adlia\u00adment as \u201ca step back\u00adwards com\u00adpared with recent nation\u00adal elec\u00adtions<\/a>.\u201d We pre\u00adfer to cast this as a moral\u00adi\u00adty play pit\u00adting the good (pro-West\u00adern) peo\u00adple of Ukraine against the evil Vladimir Putin. If only it were that simple.<\/p>\n And that eas\u00adi\u00adly reversed. Putin has tak\u00aden a mil\u00adi\u00adtary action to which we will not respond mil\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adly, despite our Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State\u2019s testos\u00adterone-addled rhetoric in the days imme\u00addi\u00adate\u00adly fol\u00adlow\u00ading the Russ\u00adian incursion.<\/p>\n Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma has made some progress on eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions. The EU<\/span> has agreed to impose trav\u00adel restric\u00adtions and asset freezes<\/a> on a still-to-be-named list of Rus\u00adsians believed to be \u201crespon\u00adsi\u00adble for actions which under\u00admine or threat\u00aden the ter\u00adri\u00adto\u00adr\u00adi\u00adal integri\u00adty, sov\u00ader\u00adeign\u00adty and inde\u00adpen\u00addence of Ukraine.\u201d But the Euro\u00adpeans are unlike\u00adly to approve sweep\u00ading sanc\u00adtions since they have 170 bil\u00adlion euro ($238 bil\u00adlion) direct\u00adly invest\u00aded in Rus\u00adsia. The val\u00adue of trade between the EU<\/span> and Rus\u00adsia is esti\u00admat\u00aded at 355 bil\u00adlion euro ($497 bil\u00adlion), 10 times more than US<\/span> trade with Russia.<\/p>\n With mil\u00adi\u00adtary options off the table and eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions hold\u00ading lim\u00adit\u00aded val\u00adue, diplo\u00admat\u00adic options, which many will find weak and dis\u00adtaste\u00adful, will at some point be the only real alter\u00adna\u00adtive. If prop\u00ader\u00adly con\u00adstruct\u00aded, they could allow all sides to step hon\u00ador\u00adably back from what could dete\u00adri\u00ado\u00adrate into a bloody con\u00adflict. A well-con\u00adceived diplo\u00admat\u00adic solu\u00adtion could actu\u00adal\u00adly bring sta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty to a volatile Ukraine.<\/p>\n Ukraine is a bas\u00adket case because of two mutu\u00adal\u00adly rein\u00adforc\u00ading prob\u00adlems: eth\u00adnic ten\u00adsions that have ren\u00addered it ungovern\u00adable and an econ\u00ado\u00admy in freefall.<\/p>\n The eth\u00adnic ten\u00adsions are by now famil\u00adiar. They have fueled the rise of extrem\u00adist par\u00adties like Svo\u00adbo\u00adda and raised the specter of a poten\u00adtial civ\u00adil war between the large\u00adly Russ\u00adian-speak\u00ading pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion of the east and the large\u00adly Ukrain\u00adian-speak\u00ading pop\u00adu\u00adla\u00adtion of the west. Putin has jus\u00adti\u00adfied his seizure of Crimea as pro\u00adtect\u00ading eth\u00adnic Rus\u00adsians from vio\u00adlence, a trans\u00adpar\u00adent lie but a com\u00adplaint com\u00admon\u00adly heard from both sides in Ukraine.<\/p>\n The extent of the country\u2019s eco\u00adnom\u00adic trou\u00adbles<\/a> is per\u00adhaps less well under\u00adstood. The gov\u00adern\u00adment needs to roll over $25 bil\u00adlion in debt this year and its cen\u00adtral bank holds only $12 bil\u00adlion in for\u00adeign cur\u00adren\u00adcy reserves. Its own cur\u00adren\u00adcy, the hryv\u00adnia, has lost 25 per\u00adcent of its val\u00adue since mid-Jan\u00adu\u00adary, mak\u00ading its debt load \u2013 half of which is in for\u00adeign cur\u00adren\u00adcies \u2014 that much more oner\u00adous. Like oth\u00ader devel\u00adop\u00ading coun\u00adtries, Ukraine has been hit by the US<\/span> Fed\u00ader\u00adal Reserve\u2019s deci\u00adsion to taper asset pur\u00adchas\u00ades, which has exac\u00ader\u00adbat\u00aded the flight of for\u00adeign cap\u00adi\u00adtal. The gov\u00adern\u00adment is pay\u00ading as much as 15 per\u00adcent inter\u00adest for short-term bor\u00adrow\u00ading. It is $1.5 bil\u00adlion<\/a> behind in its pay\u00adments to Rus\u00adsia for nat\u00adur\u00adal gas, on which it is high\u00adly depen\u00addent. Ukraine appears to be edg\u00ading toward default, as even its inter\u00adim Pres\u00adi\u00addent has acknowl\u00adedged<\/a>.<\/p>\n In the past, Ukraine has dealt with eco\u00adnom\u00adic crises by play\u00ading West\u00adern pow\u00aders off against Rus\u00adsia. Last year, for exam\u00adple, the EU<\/span> pressed Ukraine to accept an IMF<\/span> aid pack\u00adage, which Rus\u00adsia urged it to reject. In Novem\u00adber, Yanukovich rebuffed the EU<\/span> and accept\u00aded Putin\u2019s offer<\/a> to buy $15 bil\u00adlion in Ukraine gov\u00adern\u00adment bonds and pro\u00advide nat\u00adur\u00adal gas at a discount.<\/p>\n But Russ\u00adian aid didn\u2019t pull Ukraine back from the brink. Instead, it alarmed many of its pro-West\u00adern cit\u00adi\u00adzens, incit\u00ading more fer\u00advent demon\u00adstra\u00adtions in Kiev. Those demon\u00adstra\u00adtions ulti\u00admate\u00adly top\u00adpled the Yanukovich regime amid a con\u00adtin\u00adued eco\u00adnom\u00adic slide.<\/p>\n The new gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev is count\u00ading on assis\u00adtance from Europe and Amer\u00adi\u00adca to allow it to stay afloat. The hope that the US<\/span> will ship dol\u00adlars to Ukraine will almost cer\u00adtain\u00adly dis\u00adap\u00adpoint. The House last week over\u00adwhelm\u00ading\u00adly agreed to a bill that would impose eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions on Rus\u00adsia but which pro\u00advid\u00aded just $1 bil\u00adlion in loan guar\u00adan\u00adtees for Ukraine. Sen\u00adate For\u00adeign Rela\u00adtions Com\u00admit\u00adtee Chair\u00adman Robert Menen\u00addez (D\u2011NJ<\/span>)<\/a> has includ\u00aded a pro\u00advi\u00adsion in his Ukraine aid pack\u00adage that would make it eas\u00adi\u00ader for the IMF<\/span> to extend aid to trou\u00adbled coun\u00adtries, but that would make lit\u00adtle dif\u00adfer\u00adence to Ukraine. Con\u00adgress is hap\u00adpy to approve eco\u00adnom\u00adic sanc\u00adtions against Rus\u00adsia but won\u2019t do much to pro\u00advide eco\u00adnom\u00adic aid to Ukraine.<\/p>\n The IMF<\/span> is offer\u00ading $15 bil\u00adlion, but that is not like\u00adly to be enough. And IMF<\/span> assis\u00adtance always comes with strings \u2014 require\u00adments of eco\u00adnom\u00adic reforms, spend\u00ading cuts and tax increas\u00ades \u2014 that recip\u00adi\u00adent nations often find intol\u00ader\u00ada\u00adble. The IMF<\/span> offered Ukraine $15 bil\u00adlion in 2010, but the aid was frozen in 2012<\/a> when the Yanukovich gov\u00adern\u00adment refused to ful\u00adfill con\u00addi\u00adtions that the agency had imposed.<\/p>\n Rus\u00adsia is will\u00ading to help if Ukraine assem\u00adbles a gov\u00adern\u00adment to its lik\u00ading, but it is lim\u00adit\u00aded by its own flag\u00adging and cor\u00adrupt econ\u00ado\u00admy, the ruble\u2019s fall, and low ener\u00adgy prices.<\/p>\n The cur\u00adrent cri\u00adsis aside, Ukraine\u2019s eco\u00adnom\u00adic woes seem to be more than it or any of its bene\u00adfac\u00adtors can bear. And that may open the oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty for a peace\u00adful way out.<\/p>\n Since nei\u00adther Rus\u00adsia nor the West can afford to bail out Ukraine, per\u00adhaps the only remain\u00ading solu\u00adtion is for the two sides to work togeth\u00ader to resolve the eco\u00adnom\u00adic cri\u00adsis. A struc\u00adtured default, as occurred in Greece and Cyprus, in which hold\u00aders of Ukrain\u00adian gov\u00adern\u00adment debt take write-downs, would both ease the government\u2019s bur\u00addens and exact some pain on its Russ\u00adian and Euro\u00adpean creditors.<\/p>\n That, in turn, would make it in the inter\u00adests of all par\u00adties to seek polit\u00adi\u00adcal equi\u00adlib\u00adri\u00adum in Ukraine. If Euro\u00adpean and Russ\u00adian investors (includ\u00ading the Russ\u00adian gov\u00adern\u00adment itself) take a beat\u00ading on Ukrain\u00adian bonds, they will have good rea\u00adson to try to avoid fur\u00adther loss\u00ades by sup\u00adport\u00ading polit\u00adi\u00adcal nor\u00admal\u00adcy. Ukraini\u00adans them\u00adselves might come to accept that their access to cap\u00adi\u00adtal mar\u00adkets will depend to a large extent on their abil\u00adi\u00adty to per\u00adsuade for\u00adeign investors that their gov\u00adern\u00adment will stop its repeat\u00aded lurch\u00ading between pro-West\u00adern and pro-Russ\u00adian ori\u00aden\u00adta\u00adtions. A sta\u00adble gov\u00adern\u00adment broad\u00adly rep\u00adre\u00adsen\u00adta\u00adtive of all eth\u00adnic groups and inter\u00adests would be the surest \u2013 and per\u00adhaps the only \u2013 means of attract\u00ading need\u00aded capital.<\/p>\n But how, specif\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly, might the cur\u00adrent cri\u00adsis be resolved? Putin has con\u00adtin\u00adued to insist that Ukraine return to the Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21 agree\u00adment, which allowed Yanukovich to con\u00adtin\u00adue on as Pres\u00adi\u00addent<\/a> until new elec\u00adtions lat\u00ader in the year. At this point, one can only imag\u00adine how deeply Putin must despise Yanukovich, whose regime he sought to res\u00adcue. When Yanukovich last month failed to put down demon\u00adstra\u00adtions and fled Kiev, one would assume he irrev\u00ado\u00adca\u00adbly lost Putin\u2019s support.<\/p>\n It wouldn\u2019t be a big con\u00adces\u00adsion for Putin to call for a return to the Feb\u00adru\u00adary 21 agree\u00adment with some\u00adone oth\u00ader than Yanukovich serv\u00ading as its tem\u00adpo\u00adrary leader. Sim\u00adi\u00adlar\u00adly, the West should be will\u00ading to ask inter\u00adim Pres\u00adi\u00addent Olek\u00adsan\u00addr Turchynov to step aside. The EU<\/span> and Rus\u00adsians could then insist that the gov\u00adern\u00adment name a new inter\u00adim prime min\u00adis\u00adter and a cab\u00adi\u00adnet that ade\u00adquate\u00adly rep\u00adre\u00adsents all factions.<\/p>\n It would seem to be in everyone\u2019s inter\u00adests to assure that future elec\u00adtions are con\u00adduct\u00aded fair\u00adly and, more impor\u00adtant\u00adly, that the los\u00ading side accept the results and not appeal to its out\u00adside allies for mon\u00adey. Above all, Rus\u00adsia and the EU<\/span> must con\u00adtin\u00adue to press the new gov\u00adern\u00adment to under\u00adtake eco\u00adnom\u00adic reform as a con\u00addi\u00adtion for con\u00adtin\u00adued assistance.<\/p>\n What about Crimea? Putin\u2019s hold on the penin\u00adsu\u00adla is firm and the West will do noth\u00ading that is like\u00adly to change that, even if the Crimeans vote to sep\u00ada\u00adrate from Ukraine at a plebiscite sched\u00aduled for Sunday.<\/p>\n Crimea\u2019s incor\u00adpo\u00adra\u00adtion into Rus\u00adsia, though, could back\u00adfire on Putin by exclud\u00ading a reli\u00adably pro-Russ\u00adian con\u00adstituen\u00adcy from the com\u00ading elec\u00adtions. Since Putin would want to max\u00adi\u00admize the num\u00adber of Ukraine deputies sym\u00adpa\u00adthet\u00adic to Rus\u00adsia, remov\u00ading Crimean vot\u00aders from the bal\u00adlot box would in that respect harm his inter\u00adests. With\u00adout Crimea, a new\u00adly elect\u00aded Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment would almost cer\u00adtain\u00adly be unfriend\u00adly to the Kremlin.<\/p>\n This might moti\u00advate Putin to con\u00adsid\u00ader some medi\u00adat\u00ading posi\u00adtion \u2013 for exam\u00adple, the deploy\u00adment of peace\u00adkeep\u00aders to Crimea under inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal super\u00advi\u00adsion to pre\u00advent eth\u00adnic vio\u00adlence, along with inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal recog\u00adni\u00adtion of Russia\u2019s lease on ports in the city of Sebastopol.<\/p>\n Above all, East and West would have to agree on a bailout pack\u00adage that would put both on the hook for defaults and con\u00adtin\u00adued assis\u00adtance. That would give the two sides a com\u00admon inter\u00adest in pre\u00adserv\u00ading Ukraine\u2019s polit\u00adi\u00adcal stability.<\/p>\n A res\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtion along these lines requires a lev\u00adel of coop\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtion between East and West that seems improb\u00ada\u00adble. It nev\u00ader\u00adthe\u00adless makes sense, as David Hen\u00addrick\u00adson<\/a> and for\u00admer Bush nation\u00adal secu\u00adri\u00adty advis\u00ader Thomas Gra\u00adham<\/a> have not\u00aded. Both have argued for a \u201ccon\u00adcert solu\u00adtion,\u201d in which out\u00adside pow\u00aders agree to coop\u00ader\u00adate in pro\u00admot\u00ading Ukraine\u2019s sta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty. Hen\u00adry Kissinger<\/a> also has advo\u00adcat\u00aded for an approach that encour\u00adages rec\u00adon\u00adcil\u00adi\u00ada\u00adtion between East and West and between Ukraine\u2019s major factions.<\/p>\n Instead of com\u00adpet\u00ading for the alle\u00adgiance of an errat\u00adic and bank\u00adrupt Ukraine, East and West should coop\u00ader\u00adate in push\u00ading for polit\u00adi\u00adcal sta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty and eco\u00adnom\u00adic reform.<\/p>\n That would mark a big change in pol\u00adi\u00adcy for Rus\u00adsia and the West. For years, they have enabled Ukraine\u2019s insta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty, help\u00ading bring it to the brink of civ\u00adil war and eco\u00adnom\u00adic col\u00adlapse. So long as eth\u00adnic fac\u00adtions with\u00adin Ukraine can appeal to their respec\u00adtive allies in Europe or Rus\u00adsia for hand\u00adouts, they have lit\u00adtle moti\u00adva\u00adtion to accept adverse elec\u00adtion results or take respon\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty for repair\u00ading their own econ\u00ado\u00admy. The allure of free mon\u00adey from for\u00adeign patrons rais\u00ades unre\u00adal\u00adis\u00adtic hope on the part of Ukraini\u00adans that some\u00adone else will pay their bills and sup\u00adply them with cheap energy.<\/p>\n Rus\u00adsia, Europe and the US<\/span> have fed this self-destruc\u00adtive dynam\u00adic for more than two decades. They can reverse it, but only if they cease com\u00adpet\u00ading over Ukraine and instead coop\u00ader\u00adate to resolve its finan\u00adcial cri\u00adsis and pro\u00admote its polit\u00adi\u00adcal stability.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Ukraine\u2019s inter\u00adim gov\u00adern\u00adment, whose part the Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion has tak\u00aden in the Crimea cri\u00adsis, includes a promi\u00adnent polit\u00adi\u00adcal leader who has in the past urged his coun\u00adtry\u00admen to fight the \u201cMus\u00ad\u00adcovite-Jew\u00ad\u00adish mafia\u201d and called on his gov\u00adern\u00adment to halt the \u201ccrim\u00adi\u00adnal \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading