![\"Russia](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/Credit-Washington-Post.jpg\")
<\/a>Rus\u00adsia has seized con\u00adtrol of Crimea, the south\u00adern\u00admost por\u00adtion of Ukraine. Resolv\u00ading the cri\u00adsis peace\u00adful\u00adly requires adult lead\u00ader\u00adship. [Cred\u00adit: Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post]<\/p><\/div>In deal\u00ading with the Russ\u00adian incur\u00adsion into Ukraine, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma will hear no bet\u00adter advice than this: lis\u00adten to Angela Merkel.\n
A week ago, it appeared that Ukraine would prove an embar\u00adrass\u00adment for Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Vladimir Putin. Demon\u00adstra\u00adtors in Kiev demand\u00aded the res\u00adig\u00adna\u00adtion of the country\u2019s Russ\u00adian-backed Pres\u00adi\u00addent, Vik\u00adtor Yanukovych, reject\u00ading a ten\u00adta\u00adtive set\u00adtle\u00adment with protest lead\u00aders that would have allowed him to retain pow\u00ader tem\u00adporar\u00adi\u00adly. Yanukovych fled to Rus\u00adsia and a tran\u00adsi\u00adtion gov\u00adern\u00adment was formed in Kiev, which prompt\u00adly charged him with mass murder.<\/p>\n
Putin was momen\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adly pow\u00ader\u00adless. The Sochi Olympics were still on and any imme\u00addi\u00adate Russ\u00adian inter\u00adven\u00adtion was out of the ques\u00adtion. The deeply divid\u00aded coun\u00adtry appeared des\u00adtined to be gov\u00aderned by an anti-Russ\u00adian coali\u00adtion heav\u00adi\u00adly influ\u00adenced by the Euro\u00adpean Union, a humil\u00adi\u00adat\u00ading defeat for Putin.<\/p>\n
And then the Olympics end\u00aded. Putin didn\u2019t move imme\u00addi\u00adate\u00adly. He wait\u00aded a few days to strike, until IMF<\/span> Pres\u00adi\u00addent Chris\u00adtine Lagarde arrived in Wash\u00ading\u00adton<\/a> to meet with US<\/span> Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State John Ker\u00adry to dis\u00adcuss the costs of bail\u00ading out the fledg\u00adling Ukraine government.<\/p>\n Putin\u2019s move was char\u00adac\u00adter\u00adis\u00adti\u00adcal\u00adly sur\u00adgi\u00adcal and cun\u00adning. Troops wear\u00ading no insignia seized the Crimean Par\u00adlia\u00adment build\u00ading, air\u00adports and oth\u00ader crit\u00adi\u00adcal facil\u00adi\u00adties, estab\u00adlish\u00ading con\u00adtrol over Ukraine\u2019s south\u00adern\u00admost region. Ukraine was effec\u00adtive\u00adly partitioned.<\/p>\n Putin did\u00adn\u2019t claim respon\u00adsi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty for the action, dis\u00admiss\u00ading it as an \u201cinter\u00adnal mat\u00adter,\u201d while express\u00ading oppo\u00adsi\u00adtion to any \u201cesca\u00adla\u00adtion of vio\u00adlence<\/a>,<\/span>\u201d a warn\u00ading to the gov\u00adern\u00adment in Kiev and its West\u00adern allies not to retal\u00adi\u00adate. Whether he is con\u00adtent to estab\u00adlish hege\u00admo\u00adny in Crimea or intends to broad\u00aden con\u00adtrol through\u00adout the pro-Russ\u00adian east\u00adern Ukraine or beyond is at this moment unclear. The unan\u00adi\u00admous vote by the Russ\u00adian Par\u00adlia\u00adment<\/a> to approve Putin\u2019s request for per\u00admis\u00adsion to deploy Russ\u00adian troops through\u00adout Ukraine is not promising.<\/p>\n Still, there are very good rea\u00adsons why he might choose to lim\u00adit his ambi\u00adtions. The Crimean city of Sev\u00adastopol is home to the Russ\u00adian fleet, a crit\u00adi\u00adcal warm water port that serves both its mil\u00adi\u00adtary and com\u00admer\u00adcial inter\u00adests. It is now firm\u00adly in his grasp.<\/p>\n Crimea\u2019s ports are a valu\u00adable asset in a nation on the verge of insol\u00adven\u00adcy. Ukraine\u2019s cur\u00adren\u00adcy (the hrvy\u00adnia) is plum\u00admet\u00ading, its banks are bleed\u00ading cap\u00adi\u00adtal and investors won\u2019t buy its debt. The gov\u00adern\u00adment believes that it needs $35 bil\u00adlion<\/a> in aid and loans over the next two years, some of it to pay out\u00adstand\u00ading debts and salaries. An aid pack\u00adage of that size seems unlikely.<\/p>\n But even if the IMF<\/span>, with US<\/span> back\u00ading, were to come up with that sum, Ukraine\u2019s econ\u00ado\u00admy<\/a> remains depen\u00addent on Moscow. Rus\u00adsia is its largest trad\u00ading part\u00adner. The country\u2019s biggest import is Russ\u00adian nat\u00adur\u00adal gas. Most of its exports go to Rus\u00adsia and oth\u00ader for\u00admer Sovi\u00adet nations. Even huge amounts of West\u00adern aid couldn\u2019t save Ukraine if Rus\u00adsia were to impose tar\u00adiffs on its goods or threat\u00aden its gas supply.<\/p>\n Ukraine, in short, is hard\u00adly worth fight\u00ading over. Which means that the West will like\u00adly meet Putin around a nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading table, not on a bat\u00adtle\u00adfield. It is essen\u00adtial that it be rep\u00adre\u00adsent\u00aded by an adult, some\u00adone who under\u00adstands Putin and knows how to extract the best deal pos\u00adsi\u00adble. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma<\/a>,<\/span> after achiev\u00ading noth\u00ading in a 90-minute tele\u00adphone con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtion with the Russ\u00adian leader<\/a> on Sat\u00adur\u00adday night, proved once again that he is not that per\u00adson. Angela Merkel is.<\/p>\n The Ger\u00adman Chan\u00adcel\u00adlor is both thor\u00adough\u00adly Euro\u00adpean and, hav\u00ading grown up in com\u00admu\u00adnist East Ger\u00admany, famil\u00adiar with the ways of Russ\u00adian bul\u00adlies. She pre\u00adsides over a remark\u00adably sta\u00adble gov\u00adern\u00adment and has man\u00adaged, at least for now, to pre\u00adserve the euro. Her dex\u00adtrous han\u00addling of the break\u00addown of the Greek, Ital\u00adian, Span\u00adish, Cypri\u00adot and Por\u00adtuguese economies \u2013 she essen\u00adtial\u00adly allowed the Euro\u00adpean Cen\u00adtral Bank to extend Germany\u2019s good cred\u00adit to their banks and gov\u00adern\u00adments with\u00adout los\u00ading the sup\u00adport of the Ger\u00adman peo\u00adple \u2013 is pre\u00adcise\u00adly the sort of leg\u00aderde\u00admain Ukraine needs to weath\u00ader its eco\u00adnom\u00adic crisis.<\/p>\n She con\u00adtrasts nice\u00adly with Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma, whose ver\u00adbal bel\u00adli\u00adcos\u00adi\u00adty has con\u00adsis\u00adtent\u00adly proven inef\u00adfec\u00adtu\u00adal and with\u00adout cred\u00adi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty. His hasty dec\u00adla\u00adra\u00adtion Fri\u00adday evening that there will be \u201ccosts for any mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion in Ukraine<\/a>\u201d was no doubt greet\u00aded with chuck\u00adles at the Krem\u00adlin, which already had seized Crimea. What sorts of \u201ccosts\u201d does he mean to make the Rus\u00adsians pay?<\/p>\n The President\u2019s deci\u00adsion to send his blus\u00adter\u00ading Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State to Ukraine to meet with Euro\u00adpean for\u00adeign min\u00adis\u00adters is unfor\u00adtu\u00adnate. Kerry\u2019s com\u00adments so far have been unhelp\u00adful. On Sun\u00adday, he declared, \u201cThe peo\u00adple of Ukraine will not sit still for this. They know how to fight<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n The dan\u00adger is that the Kiev gov\u00adern\u00adment will take these remarks at face val\u00adue. They amount to offi\u00adcial US<\/span> encour\u00adage\u00adment to engage the Rus\u00adsians mil\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adly, with the assump\u00adtion that if they do, the US<\/span> will have their backs. We won\u2019t. Ask the pro-West\u00adern Syr\u00adi\u00adan rebels (if there are any left), who mis\u00adtak\u00aden\u00adly believed that Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma would fol\u00adlow through on his threat to engage in mis\u00adsile strikes against Assad. If the Ukraini\u00adans choose war with Rus\u00adsia, they will have to go it alone.<\/p>\n Instead of talk\u00ading up war, Merkel is pur\u00adsu\u00ading peace. Unlike Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma, she had a pro\u00adduc\u00adtive con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtion with Putin, although the two sides dif\u00adfer <\/a>over whether Rus\u00adsia actu\u00adal\u00adly agreed to autho\u00adriz\u00ading an inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal fact-find\u00ading mis\u00adsion in Ukraine or mere\u00adly to \u201ccon\u00adtin\u00adue con\u00adsul\u00adta\u00adtions \u2026 in order to pro\u00admote the nor\u00admal\u00adiza\u00adtion of the socio-polit\u00adi\u00adcal sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtion in Ukraine.\u201d It is, in any event, the only promis\u00ading sign in an increas\u00ading\u00adly omi\u00adnous set of circumstances.<\/p>\n Putin wants to dri\u00adve a wedge between the skill\u00adful Merkel and our far less skill\u00adful Pres\u00adi\u00addent, as he man\u00adaged to do last month when he released a sur\u00adrep\u00adti\u00adtious\u00adly record\u00aded con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtion in which our Ambas\u00adsador to the EU<\/span> said to our Ambas\u00adsador to Ukraine, \u201cF*ck the EU<\/span><\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n Our bungling envoys imag\u00adined at the time that they could resolve ris\u00ading ten\u00adsions in Ukraine with\u00adout defer\u00adring to Euro\u00adpean lead\u00aders. We see how that worked out. This time, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent should fol\u00adlow the EU<\/span>\u2019s lead and, in par\u00adtic\u00adu\u00adlar, that of Merkel, who will be the key fig\u00adure behind the nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtions. He should do as she tells him and say what she tells him to say. He should not devi\u00adate from her script.<\/p>\n Unfor\u00adtu\u00adnate\u00adly, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent seems, for the moment at least, to be bent on mak\u00ading his own way, begin\u00adning as he typ\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly does (think Syr\u00adia) with bold pro\u00adnounce\u00adments and emp\u00adty threats. These will soon enough give way to backpedal\u00ading and equiv\u00ado\u00adca\u00adtion, once Putin makes clear that he has no inten\u00adtion of back\u00ading down.<\/p>\n Nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading with Putin is no job for ama\u00adteurs. He is a thug, and a very capa\u00adble one. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma is no match for him. Putin last Sep\u00adtem\u00adber embar\u00adrassed the Pres\u00adi\u00addent with a con\u00adde\u00adscend\u00ading New York Times<\/em> op-ed<\/a> that lec\u00adtured him for threat\u00aden\u00ading to inter\u00advene in Syr\u00adia with\u00adout inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal back\u00ading. Ulti\u00admate\u00adly, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent capit\u00adu\u00adlat\u00aded to Putin, legit\u00adimiz\u00ading Assad\u2019s rule by call\u00ading for chem\u00adi\u00adcal weapons inspec\u00adtions. The Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adt\u2019s actions divid\u00aded the Syr\u00adi\u00adan oppo\u00adsi\u00adtion between mod\u00ader\u00adates and jihadists and assured that Putin\u2019s man in Syr\u00adia would remain in pow\u00ader over Washington\u2019s futile objections.<\/p>\n The result of Pres\u00adi\u00addent Obama\u2019s for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy \u2013 and per\u00adhaps its unspo\u00adken aim \u2013 has been to reduce Amer\u00adi\u00adcan influ\u00adence wher\u00adev\u00ader it once held sway. Our ad hoc with\u00addrawals have not brought peace, but con\u00adflict and insta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty. It appears that Amer\u00adi\u00adca was not the root cause of hatred and hos\u00adtil\u00adi\u00adty after all. Iran\u2019s ascen\u00addance as the pre\u00addom\u00adi\u00adnant pow\u00ader in the Mid\u00addle East has pro\u00adduced tyran\u00adny and atroc\u00adi\u00adty in Syr\u00adia, repres\u00adsion and may\u00adhem in Iraq, and will in time pro\u00advoke unpleas\u00adant respons\u00ades from Israel and the Saud\u00adis. They will do what they must to survive.<\/p>\n The world today is on the whole more dan\u00adger\u00adous and volatile than the one Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma found when he took office, as Putin, Kim Jong-un, Ali Khamei\u00adni, Xi Jin\u00adping, the Egypt\u00adian gen\u00ader\u00adals, and oth\u00aders con\u00adtem\u00adplate a world that pos\u00ades few\u00ader obsta\u00adcles to their ambi\u00adtions and dark designs.<\/p>\n The Pres\u00adi\u00addent seems a bit flum\u00admoxed by it all, unsure why his pat\u00adtern of lead\u00ading with bel\u00adli\u00adcose rhetoric and grad\u00adu\u00adal\u00adly retreat\u00ading to acqui\u00ades\u00adcence nev\u00ader seems to work. He yet remains serene\u00adly con\u00adfi\u00addent that the tur\u00admoil will resolve into a new sta\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty, a pax post-Amer\u00adi\u00adcana<\/em>. In the mean\u00adtime, our descent into irrel\u00ade\u00advan\u00adcy has brought the world\u2019s worst ele\u00adments into ascen\u00addan\u00adcy. Per\u00adhaps Putin, his ter\u00adri\u00adto\u00adr\u00adi\u00adal appetites sat\u00aded, will one day mel\u00adlow into a benign force. So too the aya\u00adtol\u00adlahs, the Tal\u00adiban and Kim. But that can\u00adnot be left to chance. Some\u00adone must lead.<\/p>\n The President\u2019s peo\u00adple have char\u00adac\u00adter\u00adized his for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy as \u201clead\u00ading from behind<\/a>,<\/span>\u201d anoth\u00ader way of say\u00ading that he fol\u00adlows. To this point, he has cho\u00adsen to fol\u00adlow the wrong peo\u00adple, Putin and Egypt\u00adian mil\u00adi\u00adtary lead\u00aders among them. As he dimin\u00adish\u00ades US<\/span> influ\u00adence in the world, he has an oblig\u00ada\u00adtion to assure that those will\u00ading to con\u00adfront new chal\u00adlenges are com\u00adpe\u00adtent peo\u00adple whose aims are peaceful.<\/p>\n In the Ukraine cri\u00adsis, he can do no bet\u00adter than to fol\u00adlow Angela Merkel.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" In deal\u00ading with the Russ\u00adian incur\u00adsion into Ukraine, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma will hear no bet\u00adter advice than this: lis\u00adten to Angela Merkel. A week ago, it appeared that Ukraine would prove an embar\u00adrass\u00adment for Russ\u00adian Pres\u00adi\u00addent Vladimir Putin. Demon\u00adstra\u00adtors in Kiev \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading