![\"Harry](\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2014\/01\/credit-roll-call.jpg\")
<\/a>Har\u00adry Reid has embraced the pain of seques\u00adtra\u00adtion in his pro\u00adpos\u00adal to extend job\u00adless ben\u00ade\u00adfits. But does it address the prob\u00adlem? [Cred\u00adit: Roll Call]<\/p><\/div>\u201cI think it\u2019s real\u00adly unfair that it would be so easy to turn the sequester around and allow us to do some\u00adthing for the long term to take care of this issue. But no, the Repub\u00adli\u00adcans like the pain. They like the pain.\u201d \u2014 <\/em>Sen\u00adate Major\u00adi\u00adty Leader Har\u00adry Reid<\/a>, April 24, 2013\n Har\u00adry Reid (D\u2011NV<\/span>) has late\u00adly embraced the pain of sequester. On Thurs\u00adday, Reid advanced a pro\u00adpos\u00adal to off\u00adset the cost of extend\u00ading \u201cemer\u00adgency\u201d unem\u00adploy\u00adment ben\u00ade\u00adfits with auto\u00admat\u00adic cuts in med\u00adical spend\u00ading for the elder\u00adly and disabled.<\/p>\n Reid\u2019s evolv\u00ading posi\u00adtion on seques\u00adtra\u00adtion is a mat\u00adter of polit\u00adi\u00adcal expe\u00addi\u00aden\u00adcy. Last year, he was hop\u00ading that the across-the-board cuts required by bipar\u00adti\u00adsan leg\u00adis\u00adla\u00adtion that he sup\u00adport\u00aded would result in \u201cpain\u201d for which he could upbraid Repub\u00adli\u00adcans. At one point, he sug\u00adgest\u00aded that seques\u00adtra\u00adtion was to blame<\/a> for an explo\u00adsion at a Neva\u00adda mil\u00adi\u00adtary facil\u00adi\u00adty that killed 7 Marines.<\/p>\n The anti-seques\u00adtra\u00adtion cam\u00adpaign fiz\u00adzled despite the enthu\u00adsi\u00adas\u00adtic efforts of Reid and Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma. This year, the plan is to blame Repub\u00adli\u00adcans for allow\u00ading \u201cemer\u00adgency\u201d unem\u00adploy\u00adment ben\u00ade\u00adfits to expire. When Reid teed up a clo\u00adture vote on the unem\u00adploy\u00adment bill as the Senate\u2019s first order of busi\u00adness in 2014, he was hop\u00ading for a con\u00adfronta\u00adtion. Repub\u00adli\u00adcans didn\u2019t oblige him. Six of them vot\u00aded with Democ\u00adrats last week to pro\u00advide the nec\u00ades\u00adsary 60 votes for the Sen\u00adate to begin debate on extend\u00ading job\u00adless benefits.<\/p>\n Reid detests debate. He finds it irk\u00adsome that Sen\u00ada\u00adtors insist on their right to offer their own ideas as amend\u00adments to bills that his aides write. One can\u2019t, after all, improve upon per\u00adfec\u00adtion. So on Tues\u00adday he resort\u00aded to the famil\u00adiar pro\u00adce\u00addure of pre\u00advent\u00ading any amend\u00adments to the bill, effec\u00adtive\u00adly halt\u00ading progress on the mea\u00adsure. His osten\u00adsive pur\u00adpose was to give his col\u00adleague and name\u00adsake Jack Reed (D\u2011RI<\/span>) the oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty to work out an agree\u00adment with a group of Repub\u00adli\u00adcans led by Rob Port\u00adman (R\u2011OH<\/span>) on a bipar\u00adti\u00adsan plan.<\/p>\n By Thurs\u00adday evening, his patience worn thin by the inac\u00adtiv\u00adi\u00adty he\u2019d forced, Reid (Har\u00adry, not Jack) announced that he could wait no longer. He advanced a new pro\u00adpos\u00adal to extend emer\u00adgency unem\u00adploy\u00adment ben\u00ade\u00adfits until after the mid-term elec\u00adtions. The mea\u00adsure would require the gov\u00adern\u00adment to bor\u00adrow $18.8 bil\u00adlion<\/a> over the next 10 months, then pay it back \u2013 10 years from now \u2013 with auto\u00admat\u00adic cuts to Medicare. You know, the kinds of cuts that cause the pain that Repub\u00adli\u00adcans like so much.<\/p>\n Reid has set a vote on cut\u00adting off debate on his lat\u00adest brain\u00adstorm (which, in typ\u00adi\u00adcal Reid fash\u00adion, has nev\u00ader been debat\u00aded) for tomor\u00adrow after\u00adnoon. On Fri\u00adday, how\u00adev\u00ader, he report\u00aded\u00adly had a change of heart. His spokesman<\/a> told reporters that Reid was \u201cabsolute\u00adly will\u00ading for the Sen\u00adate to con\u00adsid\u00ader a rea\u00adson\u00adable num\u00adber of rel\u00ade\u00advant amend\u00adments from Republicans.\u201d<\/p>\n If true, that would be rather a sig\u00adnif\u00adi\u00adcant change. So far in 2014, the Sen\u00adate has offi\u00adcial\u00adly been in ses\u00adsion for five days. In that brief peri\u00adod, Reid has blocked amend\u00adments to the unem\u00adploy\u00adment bill, delayed a clo\u00adture vote to allow for bipar\u00adti\u00adsan nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtions, declared that the time for nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtion had passed and offered a new pro\u00adpos\u00adal, moved to pre\u00advent amend\u00adment and debate on that pro\u00adpos\u00adal, and then, through an aide, pro\u00adnounced that he might per\u00admit amend\u00adment and debate on it after all. One can only won\u00adder what tomor\u00adrow will bring.<\/p>\n If this lat\u00adest Reid posi\u00adtion holds, its prac\u00adti\u00adcal result would be to give bipar\u00adti\u00adsan nego\u00adtia\u00adtors anoth\u00ader shot at devis\u00ading a more durable solu\u00adtion to the unem\u00adploy\u00adment program\u2019s per\u00adpet\u00adu\u00adal emer\u00adgency. Con\u00adgress and the Pres\u00adi\u00addent have kept that pro\u00adgram in an uncer\u00adtain state for near\u00adly 6 years. The basic unem\u00adploy\u00adment com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00adtion pro\u00adgram pro\u00advides ben\u00ade\u00adfits for 26 weeks. In June 2008, Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bush signed leg\u00adis\u00adla\u00adtion that cre\u00adat\u00aded a tem\u00adpo\u00adrary Emer\u00adgency Unem\u00adploy\u00adment Com\u00adpen\u00adsa\u00adtion<\/a> pro\u00adgram that pro\u00advid\u00aded ben\u00ade\u00adfits for a longer peri\u00adod of time. Con\u00adgress has vot\u00aded to extend that tem\u00adpo\u00adrary pro\u00adgram 11 times over the past 5\u20131\/2 years<\/a>. With the most recent exten\u00adsion, unem\u00adploy\u00adment ben\u00ade\u00adfits could last any\u00adwhere from 40\u201373 weeks<\/a>,<\/span> depend\u00ading on the state\u2019s job\u00adless rate. The emer\u00adgency pro\u00adgram expired on Decem\u00adber 28. At that point, the max\u00adi\u00admum length of ben\u00ade\u00adfits revert\u00aded to 26 weeks, with an esti\u00admat\u00aded 1.3 mil\u00adlion peo\u00adple<\/a> falling off the rolls.<\/p>\n Some Repub\u00adli\u00adcans and vir\u00adtu\u00adal\u00adly all Democ\u00adrats want to retroac\u00adtive\u00adly restore these ben\u00ade\u00adfits for at least a few more months. The argu\u00adment is over whether and how to pay back the new debt that gov\u00adern\u00adment would incur. There also is the ques\u00adtion of whether the emer\u00adgency pro\u00adgram should con\u00adtin\u00adue to lurch from tem\u00adpo\u00adrary exten\u00adsion to tem\u00adpo\u00adrary exten\u00adsion. The bipar\u00adti\u00adsan group of Sen\u00ada\u00adtors wants to keep the emer\u00adgency pro\u00adgram run\u00adning through April and hopes to use that time craft more last\u00ading changes to the unem\u00adploy\u00adment program.<\/p>\n Such a restruc\u00adtur\u00ading seems jus\u00adti\u00adfied by the mad\u00adden\u00ading\u00adly com\u00adplex trends in unem\u00adploy\u00adment: on the one hand, the rate last month dropped to 6.7 per\u00adcent<\/a>,<\/span> a healthy decline from the 7.9 per\u00adcent rate when 2013 began; on the oth\u00ader hand, rough\u00adly 2 mil\u00adlion few\u00ader Amer\u00adi\u00adcans are work\u00ading today<\/a> than in Novem\u00adber 2007 and the per\u00adcent\u00adage of work\u00ading-aged peo\u00adple who either have jobs or are seek\u00ading them has plumbed a 36-year low.<\/p>\n In the chart below (click on it to enlarge), the blue line indi\u00adcates the offi\u00adcial unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate, while the red line shows what the unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate would be if the per\u00adcent\u00adage of peo\u00adple in the work\u00adforce had remained the same as it was in Decem\u00adber 2008.<\/p>\n The chart presents two ways of ana\u00adlyz\u00ading the unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate over the last 6 Decem\u00adbers (2008\u20132013). If you focus on the blue line, you might say that the cri\u00adsis is sub\u00adsid\u00ading. The offi\u00adcial unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate has been steadi\u00adly drop\u00adping since 2009 and is now low\u00ader than it was in Decem\u00adber 2008. If that told the entire sto\u00adry, you might argue that \u201cemer\u00adgency\u201d unem\u00adploy\u00adment ben\u00ade\u00adfits no longer are needed.<\/p>\n The red line presents a very dif\u00adfer\u00adent pic\u00adture. It shows what the unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate would be if the pro\u00adpor\u00adtion of work\u00ading-aged peo\u00adple who either had a job or were look\u00ading for one had remained unchanged. That rate has dropped to 62.8 per\u00adcent<\/a> in Decem\u00adber 2013 from 65.8 per\u00adcent in Decem\u00adber 2008. If that 65.8 per\u00adcent rate had held steady, the job\u00adless rate would have eclipsed 11 per\u00adcent in Decem\u00adber 2009 and would stand at 10.9 per\u00adcent in Decem\u00adber 2013, as shown by the red line. Unlike the trend in the offi\u00adcial unem\u00adploy\u00adment rate, it has essen\u00adtial\u00adly remained flat in the 4\u20131\/2 years since the reces\u00adsion ended.<\/p>\n Despite var\u00adi\u00adous forms of fed\u00ader\u00adal \u201cstim\u00adu\u00adlus\u201d \u2013 his\u00adtor\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly high deficits, inter\u00adest rates held at 0 per\u00adcent for more than five years, and an unprece\u00addent\u00aded and ongo\u00ading pro\u00adgram of asset pur\u00adchas\u00ades by the Fed that has bloat\u00aded its bal\u00adance sheet to $4 tril\u00adlion \u2013 the red line shows that job\u00adless\u00adness is stuck at a dis\u00adturbing\u00adly high level.<\/p>\n The dis\u00adpar\u00adi\u00adty depict\u00aded in the chart is ren\u00addered more per\u00adplex\u00ading by the fact that old\u00ader work\u00aders, the ones you\u2019d think most like\u00adly to drop out of the work\u00adforce, are actu\u00adal\u00adly hang\u00ading in. Labor force par\u00adtic\u00adi\u00adpa\u00adtion among peo\u00adple 55 and old\u00ader, as the chart below shows, is high\u00ader than it\u2019s been in half a cen\u00adtu\u00adry. It is falling for every oth\u00ader age group.<\/p>\n These trends mys\u00adti\u00adfy econ\u00ado\u00admists of all per\u00adsua\u00adsions and nei\u00adther polit\u00adi\u00adcal par\u00adty has offered a ter\u00adri\u00adbly sat\u00adis\u00adfy\u00ading expla\u00adna\u00adtion of what has gone wrong, much less what to do about it.<\/p>\n Lack\u00ading con\u00adstruc\u00adtive ideas, politi\u00adcians do what politi\u00adcians do best: advance polit\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly-dri\u00adven pro\u00adpos\u00adals to extend job\u00adless ben\u00ade\u00adfits and raise the min\u00adi\u00admum wage in the hope of cast\u00ading their oppo\u00adsi\u00adtion as heart\u00adless scoundrels. It doesn\u2019t solve the prob\u00adlem, but it does cause the oppos\u00ading par\u00adty some pain.<\/p>\n And Har\u00adry Reid real\u00adly likes the pain.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" \u201c<\/span>I think it\u2019s real\u00adly unfair that it would be so easy to turn the sequester around and allow us to do some\u00adthing for the long term to take care of this issue. But no, the Repub\u00adli\u00adcans like the pain. They \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading <\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n