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<\/a>US<\/span> Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State John Ker\u00adry shares a moment with his Iran\u00adian coun\u00adter\u00adpart, Mohammed Javad Zarif, after con\u00adclud\u00ading an agree\u00adment for relaxed sanc\u00adtions and renewed talks. [Cred\u00adit: BBC<\/span>]<\/p><\/div>Iran, World Pow\u00aders Reach His\u00adtoric Nuclear Deal<\/em>. \u2013 Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post <\/a>\n \u201c<\/span>What was agreed last night in Gene\u00adva is not a his\u00adtoric agree\u00adment, it is a his\u00adtoric mis\u00adtake<\/em>.\u201d \u2014 Israeli Prime Min\u00adis\u00adter Ben\u00adjamin Netanyahu<\/a><\/p>\n The irre\u00adsistible ten\u00adden\u00adcy of gov\u00adern\u00adment to over\u00adsell its achieve\u00adments was on dis\u00adplay in this past weekend\u2019s announce\u00adments of an agree\u00adment between Iran and the so-called G5<\/span>+1 \u2013 the five per\u00adma\u00adnent mem\u00adbers of the UN<\/span> Secu\u00adri\u00adty Coun\u00adcil and Germany.<\/p>\n News out\u00adlets the world over her\u00adald\u00aded the Iran nuclear deal as \u201chis\u00adtoric.\u201d Its crit\u00adics called it his\u00adtoric fol\u00adly. Review\u00ading the agree\u00adment, it appears that both sides are exag\u00adger\u00adat\u00ading. It nei\u00adther sets back Iran\u2019s capac\u00adi\u00adty to devel\u00adop nuclear weapons nor facil\u00adi\u00adtates their development.<\/p>\n What makes this oth\u00ader\u00adwise insignif\u00adi\u00adcant announce\u00adment sig\u00adnif\u00adi\u00adcant is not what the par\u00adties agreed to, but that they agreed to any\u00adthing at all. They have, in essence, estab\u00adlished what they term a \u201cplan of action<\/a>\u201d \u2014 that is, they now have a plan to talk about reach\u00ading an agree\u00adment. That plan calls for pur\u00adsu\u00ading a \u201cmutu\u00adal\u00adly-agreed long-term com\u00adpre\u00adhen\u00adsive solu\u00adtion that would ensure Iran\u02c8s nuclear pro\u00adgram will be exclu\u00adsive\u00adly peace\u00adful.\u201d Iran has long insist\u00aded that its pro\u00adgram is peace\u00adful. It has always denied that it is try\u00ading to build nuclear weapons; it per\u00adsists in those denials.<\/p>\n In the mean\u00adtime, the hypo\u00adthet\u00adi\u00adcal \u201ccom\u00adpre\u00adhen\u00adsive solu\u00adtion\u201d remains a dis\u00adtant goal. \u201cThis com\u00adpre\u00adhen\u00adsive solu\u00adtion,\u201d the doc\u00adu\u00adment states, \u201cwould con\u00adsti\u00adtute an inte\u00adgrat\u00aded whole where noth\u00ading is agreed until every\u00adthing is agreed.\u201d<\/p>\n At this point, almost noth\u00ading is agreed. The accord con\u00adsists of what it terms the \u201cele\u00adments of a first step\u201d \u2013 a six-month peri\u00adod \u201cdur\u00ading which all par\u00adties will work to main\u00adtain a con\u00adstruc\u00adtive atmos\u00adphere for nego\u00adti\u00ada\u00adtions in good faith.\u201d Dur\u00ading that time, Iran will sus\u00adpend or cur\u00adtail cer\u00adtain of its ura\u00adni\u00adum enrich\u00adment activ\u00adi\u00adties and allow the Inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal Atom\u00adic Ener\u00adgy Agency to inspect cer\u00adtain of its facil\u00adi\u00adties. Its nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading part\u00adners, mean\u00adwhile, will ease some sanc\u00adtions, pledge not to instate new ones, and per\u00admit \u201chuman\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adan trade.\u201d In all, the White House esti\u00admates<\/a> that this \u201clim\u00adit\u00aded, tem\u00adpo\u00adrary and reversible relief\u201d will make an addi\u00adtion\u00adal $7 bil\u00adlion avail\u00adable to the Iran\u00adian regime out of rough\u00adly \u201c$100 bil\u00adlion in for\u00adeign exchange hold\u00adings are inac\u00adces\u00adsi\u00adble or restrict\u00aded by sanctions.\u201d<\/p>\n The Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion\u2019s fact sheet gets a lit\u00adtle defen\u00adsive about let\u00adting up on the sanc\u00adtions that have caused Iran\u2019s rulers such dis\u00adtress. Had it not agreed to ease the sanc\u00adtions, it argues, \u201cthe inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal sanc\u00adtions coali\u00adtion would begin to fray because Iran would make the case to the world that it was seri\u00adous about a diplo\u00admat\u00adic solu\u00adtion and we were not.\u201d Now that we have proven we\u2019re \u201cseri\u00adous,\u201d the White House argues, we have \u201cgive[n] Iran a sharp choice: ful\u00adfill its com\u00admit\u00adments and nego\u00adti\u00adate in good faith to a final deal, or the entire inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal com\u00admu\u00adni\u00adty will respond with even more iso\u00adla\u00adtion and pressure.\u201d<\/p>\n Not every\u00adone is buy\u00ading the line that we strength\u00adened the sanc\u00adtions by weak\u00aden\u00ading them. The harsh\u00adest crit\u00adi\u00adcisms have come from Iran\u2019s neigh\u00adbors, includ\u00ading Israel, Sau\u00addi Ara\u00adbia, the Unit\u00aded Arab Emi\u00adrates and Bahrain<\/a>. Those who have the mis\u00adfor\u00adtune of liv\u00ading in close prox\u00adim\u00adi\u00adty to Iran\u2019s theo\u00adcrat\u00adic repub\u00adlic<\/a> object that the announce\u00adment makes the Iran\u00adian mad\u00admen out to be respon\u00adsi\u00adble mem\u00adbers of the world com\u00admu\u00adni\u00adty. That the agree\u00adment was con\u00adclud\u00aded just days after Iran\u2019s Supreme Leader, Aya\u00adtol\u00adlah Ali Khamenei, called Israel \u201ca dirty, rabid dog<\/a>\u201d lends cre\u00addence to this view.<\/p>\n The agree\u00adment per\u00adpet\u00adu\u00adates our recent habit of advanc\u00ading the inter\u00adests of the most mani\u00ada\u00adcal and desta\u00adbi\u00adliz\u00ading ele\u00adments in the Mid\u00addle East at the expense of long-time allies. We turned on Mubarak, then raised inef\u00adfec\u00adtu\u00adal objec\u00adtions to the depo\u00adsi\u00adtion of the man who was elect\u00aded to suc\u00adceed him and the ensu\u00ading polit\u00adi\u00adcal repres\u00adsion; threat\u00adened Assad, then lent him legit\u00adi\u00adma\u00adcy for agree\u00ading to weapons inspec\u00adtions; and now we back off on Iran\u00adian sanc\u00adtions, on the the\u00ado\u00adry that this will help con\u00advince the aya\u00adtol\u00adlahs to drop their sil\u00adly idea about build\u00ading nuclear weapons. Our allies have ample rea\u00adson to ques\u00adtion the val\u00adue of our friend\u00adship and our ene\u00admies to ques\u00adtion whether we pose any real obsta\u00adcle to their hos\u00adtile designs.<\/p>\n The Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion seems large\u00adly uncon\u00adcerned about our allies. Its more imme\u00addi\u00adate fear is that Con\u00adgres\u00adsion\u00adal Democ\u00adrats might embar\u00adrass the Pres\u00adi\u00addent in front of his Iran\u00adian nego\u00adti\u00adat\u00ading part\u00adners by call\u00ading for stronger sanctions.<\/p>\n \u201c<\/span>The dis\u00adpro\u00adpor\u00adtion\u00adal\u00adi\u00adty of this agree\u00adment makes it more like\u00adly that Democ\u00adrats and Repub\u00adli\u00adcans will join togeth\u00ader and pass addi\u00adtion\u00adal sanc\u00adtions when we return in Decem\u00adber,\u201d Sen\u00ada\u00adtor Chuck Schumer (D\u2011NY<\/span>)<\/a> said in a state\u00adment. \u201cIt was strong sanc\u00adtions, not the good\u00adness of the hearts of the Iran\u00adian lead\u00aders, that brought Iran to the table.\u201d<\/p>\n The state\u00adment puts Schumer in direct con\u00adflict with the Pres\u00adi\u00addent, who warned last Sun\u00adday<\/a> that \u201cnow is not the time to move for\u00adward on new sanc\u00adtions because doing so would derail this promis\u00ading first step, alien\u00adate us from allies [sic<\/em>] and risk unrav\u00adel\u00ading the coali\u00adtion that enabled our sanc\u00adtions to be enforced in the first place.\u201d<\/p>\n Sen\u00adate For\u00adeign Rela\u00adtions Com\u00admit\u00adtee Chair\u00adman Bob Menen\u00addez (D\u2011NJ<\/span>), who has sup\u00adport\u00aded tight\u00aden\u00ading sanc\u00adtions in the past, now seems will\u00ading to back a mea\u00adsure that would defer stiffer mea\u00adsures for six months. \u201cI expect that the forth\u00adcom\u00ading sanc\u00adtions leg\u00adis\u00adla\u00adtion to be con\u00adsid\u00adered by the Sen\u00adate will pro\u00advide for a six month win\u00addow<\/a> to reach a final agree\u00adment before impos\u00ading new sanc\u00adtions on Iran,\u201d he said in a state\u00adment, \u201cbut will at the same time be imme\u00addi\u00adate\u00adly avail\u00adable should the talks fal\u00adter or Iran fail to imple\u00adment or breach the inter\u00adim agreement.\u201d<\/p>\n The White House<\/a> is no more eager to have a vote on a pro\u00adpos\u00adal along the lines that Menen\u00addez has offered than it is of Schumer\u2019s pro\u00adpos\u00adal, fear\u00ading that any bill to ratch\u00adet up sanc\u00adtions, even after the six-month peri\u00adod, would upset the Ira\u00adni\u00adans. A Sen\u00adate vote on Iran sanc\u00adtions would prove dif\u00adfi\u00adcult and poten\u00adtial\u00adly embar\u00adrass\u00ading for the Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion. The House last sum\u00admer passed a mea\u00adsure<\/a> to tight\u00aden those sanc\u00adtions by a vote of 400\u201320<\/a>,<\/span> a lev\u00adel of sup\u00adport ordi\u00adnar\u00adi\u00adly reserved for nam\u00ading post offices. Such a vote in the cur\u00adrent con\u00adtext would like\u00adly under\u00admine the \u201cele\u00adments of a first step\u201d tak\u00aden last week\u00adend and the White House can be expect\u00aded to mount strong resistance.<\/p>\n All of which could cre\u00adate prob\u00adlems for Sen\u00adate Major\u00adi\u00adty Leader Har\u00adry Reid (D\u2011NV<\/span>). Reid last week com\u00admit\u00adted<\/a> to a Sen\u00adate vote on sanc\u00adtions after it returns from its pro\u00adtract\u00aded Thanks\u00adgiv\u00ading break. He already has sig\u00adnaled that he will renege on that com\u00admit\u00adment. He now says that the Sen\u00adate will vote only \u201cif we need to do stronger sanc\u00adtions,\u201d adding cryp\u00adti\u00adcal\u00adly, \u201cWhat I said last week, I still feel the same way today.\u201d<\/p>\n The Iran\u00adian gov\u00adern\u00adment, too, may face polit\u00adi\u00adcal chal\u00adlenges, hav\u00ading spun the announce\u00adment as an elixir for its belea\u00adguered econ\u00ado\u00admy. The Lon\u00addon Tele\u00adgraph<\/a> reports \u201cwide\u00adspread pub\u00adlic enthu\u00adsi\u00adasm\u201d for the agreement.<\/p>\n Enthu\u00adsi\u00adas\u00adtic crowds have greet\u00aded Iran\u00adian nego\u00adtia\u00adtors return\u00ading from Gene\u00adva after clinch\u00ading a nuclear deal with the six world pow\u00aders. A num\u00adber of Per\u00adsian news\u00adpa\u00adpers, like the lib\u00ader\u00adal dai\u00adly Etemaad, are run\u00adning front page head\u00adlines wel\u00adcom\u00ading the deal. (The Etemaad head\u00adline reads \u201cHere in Iran, Every\u00adbody is Happy.\u201d)<\/p><\/blockquote>\n That hap\u00adpi\u00adness could quick\u00adly turn to resent\u00adment if their eco\u00adnom\u00adic cir\u00adcum\u00adstances don\u2019t quick\u00adly improve. The sanc\u00adtions have exact\u00aded a deep toll on the nation\u2019s econ\u00ado\u00admy<\/a>. Infla\u00adtion stands at 40 per\u00adcent, the val\u00adue of its cur\u00adren\u00adcy has plunged, sanc\u00adtions have cut oil exports to a trick\u00adle, and freezes on their over\u00adseas accounts have choked off their access to capital.<\/p>\n Those eco\u00adnom\u00adic woes led to the elec\u00adtion last June of a more \u201cmod\u00ader\u00adate\u201d gov\u00adern\u00adment, one more gen\u00adteel in its anti-semi\u00adtism, head\u00aded by Has\u00adsan Rouhani. The new gov\u00adern\u00adment aims to con\u00adtin\u00adue its dri\u00adve to pro\u00adduce nuclear weapons, even as it breaks the suf\u00adfo\u00adcat\u00ading grasp of sanc\u00adtions and revives the econ\u00ado\u00admy. Now that the Iran\u00adian peo\u00adple believe that the world is back\u00ading down on sanc\u00adtions, \u201cevery\u00adbody is hap\u00adpy.\u201d But if this weekend\u2019s announce\u00adment pro\u00advides as lit\u00adtle relief to Iran as the White House claims, the Rouhani gov\u00adern\u00adment may suf\u00adfer a fresh round of unrest as pop\u00adu\u00adlar expec\u00adta\u00adtions are again disappointed.<\/p>\n Such is the price of mak\u00ading too much of too lit\u00adtle. Both sides have hyped the agree\u00adment, tout\u00ading the con\u00adces\u00adsions they\u2019ve exact\u00aded and down\u00adplay\u00ading those they\u2019ve made. The real\u00adi\u00adty is less impres\u00adsive. Iran retains its nuclear ambi\u00adtions but gets a small (if the White House is to be believed) reprieve from sanc\u00adtions; the US<\/span> gets what it calls a brief \u201cpause\u201d in Iran\u2019s weapons pro\u00adgram and the deploy\u00adment of inspec\u00adtors on Iran\u00adian soil. Iran can con\u00adtin\u00adue to deny that it aims to build nuclear weapons and to main\u00adtain that the US<\/span> has con\u00adfirmed its right to enrich ura\u00adni\u00adum<\/a>. The US<\/span> gets to say that it has in no way con\u00adced\u00aded Iran\u2019s right to enrich ura\u00adni\u00adum. Such are the vagaries of this \u201cfirst step.\u201d<\/p>\n Both sides run the risk of fail\u00ading to ful\u00adfill the hopes they\u2019ve raised. That risk is greater for the Iran\u00adian gov\u00adern\u00adment, since its peo\u00adple expect to see an improve\u00adment in their liv\u00ading stan\u00addard. Few Amer\u00adi\u00adcans know or care much about the Iran\u00adian sanc\u00adtions. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent suf\u00adfered vir\u00adtu\u00adal\u00adly no polit\u00adi\u00adcal con\u00adse\u00adquences a few weeks ago when his Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion began leak\u00ading to reporters that they were on the verge of an his\u00adtoric agree\u00adment with Iran, only to have it unrav\u00adel after the French for\u00adeign min\u00adis\u00adter char\u00adac\u00adter\u00adized it as \u201ca fool\u2019s game<\/a>.\u201d Most Amer\u00adi\u00adcans paid lit\u00adtle atten\u00adtion to that diplo\u00admat\u00adic prat\u00adfall and their minds are today more focused on turkey than on this pre\u00adsumed diplo\u00admat\u00adic triumph.<\/p>\n What has dam\u00adaged the President\u2019s cred\u00adi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty are his extrav\u00ada\u00adgant promis\u00ades about health care. Instead of say\u00ading that sign\u00ading up for cov\u00ader\u00adage would be as easy as buy\u00ading a plane tick\u00adet<\/a>,<\/span> the Pres\u00adi\u00addent might have said that com\u00adplex changes in health care require com\u00adplex infor\u00adma\u00adtion sys\u00adtems and that imple\u00adment\u00ading those sys\u00adtems won\u2019t go smooth\u00adly. He might even have con\u00adsid\u00adered delay\u00ading the enroll\u00adment peri\u00adod by a month or two to assure that the sys\u00adtems were work\u00ading prop\u00ader\u00adly. On that he has learned his les\u00adson, putting off next year\u2019s open sea\u00adson until after the midterm elec\u00adtions<\/a>.<\/p>\n His advis\u00aders must also have known that peo\u00adple and small firms would start receiv\u00ading can\u00adcel\u00adla\u00adtion notices dur\u00ading the fall. That is the law\u2019s design. It requires un-insur\u00ading the insured as a step toward insur\u00ading the unin\u00adsured. His Admin\u00adis\u00adtra\u00adtion might have sig\u00adnaled this a few months back and gauged pub\u00adlic reac\u00adtion. If the blow-back was strong enough, he could have lent sup\u00adport to leg\u00adis\u00adla\u00adtion that would give peo\u00adple the option to renew their cur\u00adrent poli\u00adcies<\/a>,<\/span> there\u00adby avoid\u00ading a cycle of denial and apology.<\/p>\n His advis\u00aders today know that many poli\u00adcies sold through the exchanges will have very nar\u00adrow provider net\u00adworks<\/a> \u2013 many who sign up for those plans won\u2019t be able to keep their doc\u00adtors and may not be able to get care at their local hos\u00adpi\u00adtals. It might be a good idea to begin now to mod\u00ader\u00adate expec\u00adta\u00adtions before the new plans take effect on Jan\u00adu\u00adary 1.<\/p>\n By unrea\u00adson\u00adably rais\u00ading expec\u00adta\u00adtions, the Pres\u00adi\u00addent under\u00admined his own cred\u00adi\u00adbil\u00adi\u00adty and made the law\u2019s crit\u00adics sound believ\u00adable. When, con\u00adtrary to the Pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adt\u2019s repeat\u00aded assur\u00adances, the web\u00adsite isn\u2019t work\u00ading and peo\u00adple are los\u00ading their health insur\u00adance, Repub\u00adli\u00adcan crit\u00adi\u00adcism of the law sud\u00adden\u00adly seems more credible.<\/p>\n Hyper\u00adbole is both tan\u00adta\u00adliz\u00ading and dan\u00adger\u00adous in the world of pol\u00adi\u00adtics and diplo\u00adma\u00adcy. Over-promis\u00ading has con\u00adse\u00adquences, whether it is a promise that peo\u00adple can keep their health insur\u00adance or that a relax\u00adation of sanc\u00adtions will put more food on their tables. It is always bet\u00adter to tem\u00adper expec\u00adta\u00adtions than to inflate them. The price of rais\u00ading false hopes can be steep.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Iran, World Pow\u00aders Reach His\u00adtoric Nuclear Deal. \u2013 Wash\u00ading\u00adton Post \u201cWhat was agreed last night in Gene\u00adva is not a his\u00adtoric agree\u00adment, it is a his\u00adtoric mis\u00adtake.\u201d \u2014 Israeli Prime Min\u00adis\u00adter Ben\u00adjamin Netanyahu The irre\u00adsistible ten\u00adden\u00adcy of gov\u00adern\u00adment to over\u00adsell its \u2026 Con\u00adtin\u00adue read\u00ading