{"id":1379,"date":"2013-09-16T09:29:45","date_gmt":"2013-09-16T13:29:45","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/?p=1379"},"modified":"2013-09-20T03:11:42","modified_gmt":"2013-09-20T07:11:42","slug":"syria-future-us-policy","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.dougsbriefcase.com\/blog\/syria-future-us-policy\/","title":{"rendered":"Syria and the Future of US<\/span> Policy"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The August 21 chem\u00adi\u00adcal attack in Syr\u00adia has iron\u00adi\u00adcal\u00adly left Assad more secure\u00adly in pow\u00ader than before, while increas\u00ading Russ\u00adian influ\u00adence in the region. [Cred\u00adit: ABC<\/span>]<\/p><\/div>The Syr\u00adia episode is behind us, but after the President\u2019s ser\u00adi\u00adal impro\u00advi\u00adsa\u00adtions, our pol\u00adi\u00adcy, aims and inter\u00adests remain unclear.\n

This much is: Assad\u2019s posi\u00adtion is more secure now than before the August 21 chem\u00adi\u00adcal attacks, his oppo\u00adnents dis\u00adheart\u00adened, Russia\u2019s Mid\u00addle East stature great\u00adly enhanced, ours dimin\u00adished. Putin spared his client from mil\u00adi\u00adtary attack. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent avoid\u00aded a poten\u00adtial\u00adly embar\u00adrass\u00ading vote in Con\u00adgress and dif\u00adfi\u00adcult ques\u00adtions about what the attack might accom\u00adplish. Instead, Assad will engage over the next sev\u00ader\u00adal months in a famil\u00adiar cat-and-mouse game with UN<\/span> inspec\u00adtors sniff\u00ading about for chem\u00adi\u00adcal weapons that he now admits hav\u00ading but still denies hav\u00ading used.<\/p>\n

Avoid\u00ading war is the right result. The Pres\u00adi\u00addent nev\u00ader clar\u00adi\u00adfied his inten\u00adtions, much less our nation\u2019s inter\u00adests, in bomb\u00ading Syr\u00adia. He was clear on what he didn\u2019t want: boots on the ground, regime change, tip\u00adping the mil\u00adi\u00adtary bal\u00adance in favor of the rebels, all of which are the usu\u00adal goals of mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion. Why inter\u00advene in a war whose out\u00adcome you don\u2019t want to affect?<\/p>\n

His curi\u00adous address last Tues\u00adday, in which he asked Con\u00adgress not to enact a res\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtion that he\u2019d been lob\u00adby\u00ading them to pass, after hav\u00ading spent the pre\u00advi\u00adous week insist\u00ading that he would act with\u00adout Con\u00adgres\u00adsion\u00adal autho\u00adriza\u00adtion, sug\u00adgests that the bomb\u00ading would serve a cathar\u00adtic pur\u00adpose. He asked all of us to watch the videos of the ghast\u00adly deaths that the chem\u00adi\u00adcal attack inflict\u00aded, assur\u00ading us that we would be per\u00adsuad\u00aded that Assad deserved to be struck \u2013 not with a \u201cpin\u00adprick<\/a>,<\/span>\u201d  though with some\u00adthing \u201cunbe\u00adliev\u00adably small<\/a>,<\/span>\u201d  in the words of our Sec\u00adre\u00adtary of State.<\/p>\n

It was a dif\u00adfer\u00adent off-the-cuff remark by Mr. Ker\u00adry at a press con\u00adfer\u00adence last Mon\u00adday that led the Pres\u00adi\u00addent to aban\u00addon his cathar\u00adtic assault. Mus\u00ading aloud, Ker\u00adry said that Assad could avoid mil\u00adi\u00adtary inter\u00adven\u00adtion by turn\u00ading over his chem\u00adi\u00adcal weapons, but \u201che isn\u2019t about to do it, and it can\u2019t be done obvi\u00adous\u00adly<\/a>.\u201d  But at Russia\u2019s urg\u00ading, Assad announced that maybe it could be done and that he would be hap\u00adpy to wel\u00adcome inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal inspec\u00adtors. That prompt\u00aded Ker\u00adry, whose sub\u00ador\u00addi\u00adnates had dis\u00admissed his com\u00adments as rhetor\u00adi\u00adcal<\/a>,<\/span> to lat\u00ader pro\u00adclaim that he had \u201cpur\u00adpose\u00adful\u00adly made the state\u00adments,\u201d employ\u00ading the \u201clan\u00adguage of diplo\u00adma\u00adcy<\/a>\u201d to send a mes\u00adsage to his Russ\u00adian counterparts.<\/p>\n

The Pres\u00adi\u00addent was more can\u00addid, tac\u00adit\u00adly acknowl\u00adedg\u00ading that his Syr\u00adia pol\u00adi\u00adcy had fol\u00adlowed an acci\u00adden\u00adtal course. The result is what mat\u00adtered, he said. \u201cI\u2019m less con\u00adcerned about style points<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n

But style does mat\u00adter in for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy. There are no \u201copen mic\u201d nights on the world stage. When the spot\u00adlight falls on a world leader, friends and foes watch close\u00adly, seek\u00ading encour\u00adage\u00adment or oppor\u00adtu\u00adni\u00adty. Assad was superb. He has gone from embat\u00adtled leader to glob\u00adal fig\u00adure in a mat\u00adter of weeks. The agree\u00adment reached between the US<\/span> and Rus\u00adsia made him less vul\u00adner\u00ada\u00adble mil\u00adi\u00adtar\u00adi\u00adly and sapped the morale of Syria\u2019s rebels. It also has lent him a cer\u00adtain legit\u00adi\u00adma\u00adcy. Who would dare depose a ruler who is in the process of relin\u00adquish\u00ading his chem\u00adi\u00adcal arsenal?<\/p>\n

Then there is Putin. No less a thug than Assad, Putin is now a force in world diplo\u00adma\u00adcy, the equal of the Amer\u00adi\u00adcans. Once viewed as the obstruc\u00adtion\u00adist who vetoed Secu\u00adri\u00adty Coun\u00adcil res\u00ado\u00adlu\u00adtions, Putin could emerge as a con\u00adtender for the Nobel Peace Prize.<\/p>\n

More impor\u00adtant\u00adly from his per\u00adspec\u00adtive, he has, as Pres\u00adi\u00addent Oba\u00adma might put it, \u201creset\u201d Mid\u00addle East affairs. Since the end of the last war against Israel in 1973, the US<\/span> has been the region\u2019s major out\u00adside play\u00ader. Pres\u00adi\u00addent Carter\u2019s sub\u00adse\u00adquent Camp David agree\u00adment helped seal that role, trans\u00adform\u00ading Egypt from Israel\u2019s most implaca\u00adble foe to US<\/span> ally in keep\u00ading the peace.<\/p>\n

In recent months, that whole arrange\u00adment has begun to look worn and frayed. Egypt\u00adian mil\u00adi\u00adtary boss\u00ades have flat\u00adly ignored our pleas for restraint, first by depos\u00ading the only elect\u00aded pres\u00adi\u00addent in its his\u00adto\u00adry, then sup\u00adpress\u00ading his polit\u00adi\u00adcal col\u00adleagues, and now extend\u00ading repres\u00adsion to lib\u00ader\u00adal and left-lean\u00ading activists and jour\u00adnal\u00adists<\/a>. Their actions reced\u00aded from view as we focused on Syr\u00adia but their mes\u00adsage is clear: the US<\/span> no longer influ\u00adences Egypt\u00adian behavior.<\/p>\n

And now Rus\u00adsia res\u00adcues its client \u2013 and Iran\u00adian ally \u2013 Assad, out\u00adflank\u00ading a US<\/span> Pres\u00adi\u00addent who could muster no real sup\u00adport either from West\u00adern nations or the Amer\u00adi\u00adcan Con\u00adgress for his mil\u00adi\u00adtant designs. The US<\/span> influ\u00adence in the Mid\u00addle East has sub\u00adsided as Russia\u2019s has grown, poten\u00adtial\u00adly con\u00adclud\u00ading what had been a 40-year peri\u00adod of Amer\u00adi\u00adcan influence.<\/p>\n

No arrange\u00adment is per\u00adma\u00adnent and in the quick\u00adsil\u00adver that is the Mid\u00addle East, 40 years is an eter\u00adni\u00adty. Our influ\u00adence would wane at some point in any event. And the decline is not irre\u00adversible. We still have the means to assert our\u00adselves. But is that what we want?<\/p>\n

We appear unsure of who we want to be. Many Democ\u00adrats have become almost Euro\u00adpean in their aver\u00adsion to war; many Repub\u00adli\u00adcans talk like iso\u00adla\u00adtion\u00adists. Mil\u00adlions who are less ide\u00ado\u00adlog\u00adi\u00adcal and less overt\u00adly polit\u00adi\u00adcal are sim\u00adply weary of war. Is this a pass\u00ading weari\u00adness or a last\u00ading depar\u00adture from the mind\u00adset that has shaped US<\/span> for\u00adeign pol\u00adi\u00adcy since the Sec\u00adond World War?  Are we a nation that defines its inter\u00adests and advances them through\u00adout the world or one that takes care of itself and leaves it to oth\u00aders to attend to the world\u2019s mis\u00aderies and injus\u00adtices? Though nev\u00ader pure\u00adly one or the oth\u00ader, we have for three gen\u00ader\u00ada\u00adtions been activists, inter\u00adven\u00adtion\u00adists, per\u00adpet\u00adu\u00adal\u00adly involved. Per\u00adhaps this is our moment to retreat from the lime\u00adlight and take our place amid the back\u00adground scenery.<\/p>\n

To this point, we haven\u2019t real\u00adly made up our minds, nev\u00ader real\u00adly giv\u00aden it suf\u00adfi\u00adcient reflec\u00adtion. Instead, we react to pass\u00ading events with no point of ref\u00ader\u00adence. This lack of self-aware\u00adness con\u00adtributed great\u00adly to the President\u2019s strug\u00adgle to under\u00adstand Syr\u00adia <\/a>and his inabil\u00adi\u00adty to set\u00adtle on a course of action until the Rus\u00adsians set\u00adtled it for him.<\/p>\n

To be clear, this is a pres\u00adi\u00adden\u00adtial fail\u00ading in which we all share.  There is no dom\u00adi\u00adnant view, much less con\u00adsen\u00adsus, among the elec\u00adtorate as to what our nation\u2019s role should be.  Pres\u00adi\u00addent Bush argued that we should pun\u00adish gov\u00adern\u00adments that har\u00adbored ter\u00adror\u00adists and pro\u00admote democ\u00adra\u00adcy in the Islam\u00adic world.  The notion was that pop\u00adu\u00adlar\u00adly elect\u00aded gov\u00adern\u00adments would occu\u00adpy them\u00adselves with improv\u00ading liv\u00ading stan\u00addards and pur\u00adsu\u00ading peace.  They would give ter\u00adror\u00adists no quar\u00adter.  The idea showed promise, but the pub\u00adlic soured on it when wars in Iraq and Afghanistan proved too long, too grue\u00adsome and pro\u00adduc\u00adtive of only ambigu\u00adous results.  Democ\u00adra\u00adcy takes time; our atten\u00adtion span is short.<\/p>\n

Since our aban\u00addon\u00adment of that pol\u00adi\u00adcy, nei\u00adther polit\u00adi\u00adcal par\u00adty has clear\u00adly artic\u00adu\u00adlat\u00aded what our inter\u00adna\u00adtion\u00adal goals should be.  Like the Pres\u00adi\u00addent, we express our pref\u00ader\u00adences in terms of what we don\u2019t want \u2014 war, entan\u00adgle\u00adment in messy sit\u00adu\u00ada\u00adtions, over\u00adthrow\u00ading a bad leader to the ben\u00ade\u00adfit of some\u00adone worse \u2014 than what we do.  The truth is, we don\u2019t know what we want.<\/p>\n

Which puts us at a ter\u00adri\u00adble dis\u00adad\u00advan\u00adtage against the likes of Putin and Assad.  Assad knows what he wants \u2014 to hold onto pow\u00ader and crush his oppo\u00adnents.  So does Putin \u2014 to restore the stature and influ\u00adence Rus\u00adsia lost with com\u00admu\u00adnis\u00adm\u2019s col\u00adlapse.  We have no com\u00adpa\u00adra\u00adble sense of pur\u00adpose, no tan\u00adgi\u00adble aims, noth\u00ading we want as bad\u00adly as they.  With Syr\u00adia now set\u00adtled, we will like\u00adly con\u00adtin\u00adue our drift until the next cri\u00adsis sends us careen\u00ading from option to option.<\/p>\n

The Pres\u00adi\u00addent is fond of call\u00ading for \u201cnation\u00adal con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtions\u201d on sub\u00adjects rang\u00ading from gun vio\u00adlence to gov\u00adern\u00adment sur\u00adveil\u00adlance of its cit\u00adi\u00adzens. Per\u00adhaps we could do with a nation\u00adal con\u00adver\u00adsa\u00adtion on recov\u00ader\u00ading our sense of pur\u00adpose in a com\u00adplex and dan\u00adger\u00adous world.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The Syr\u00adia episode is behind us, but after the President\u2019s ser\u00adi\u00adal impro\u00advi\u00adsa\u00adtions, our pol\u00adi\u00adcy, aims and inter\u00adests remain unclear.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":1384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"nf_dc_page":"","wp_typography_post_enhancements_disabled":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_feature_clip_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"nfd_image_url":"","nfd_onboarding_generated":"","footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[398,393,158,441],"tags":[512,594,559,1203,589,588,593,439,586,592,1190,1202,440,1198,144,591],"class_list":["post-1379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-arab-spring","category-egypt","category-national-security","category-syria","tag-assad","tag-camp-david-accord","tag-chemical-weapons","tag-iran","tag-israel","tag-kerry","tag-middle-east","tag-nobel-peace-prize","tag-president","tag-president-carter","tag-president-obama","tag-putin","tag-russia","tag-syria","tag-un","tag-un-security-council"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t